800
FXUS63 KGLD 052050
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
250 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY NORTH OF
I-70 AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 BETWEEN 4-9 PM CDT. LARGE HAIL
AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS, SHOULD
STORMS DEVELOP.
- INCREASING SIGNAL FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES MAY REACH THE 100-105 RANGE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE IN PLACE AS
WELL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2026
THROUGH TONIGHT: A MODEST SW-TO-NE ORIENTED SHEAR AXIS
(~250-300 MB LEVEL) AND AN ACCOMPANYING LOW-LEVEL REFLECTION
(SW-TO-NE ORIENTED SURFACE TO 850 MB TROUGH) WILL VERY SLOWLY
PROGRESS EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST KS AND SOUTHWEST NE THIS
AFTERNOON, WHEN/WHERE WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. PER 19Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG/NEAR A LINE EXTENDING NE-NNE
FROM LEOTI- OAKLEY-OBERLIN. UNIMPEDED SUNSHINE WILL FURTHER
DESTABILIZE THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS (1500-2500 J/KG
MLCAPE AT 19Z) ALREADY IN PLACE OVER NORTHWEST KS THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN ENE PORTIONS OF THE GOODLAND CWA (HILL
CITY, NORTON, OBERLIN) WHERE MOISTURE POOLING IN VICINITY OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL LEAD TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION
(3000-3500 J/KG MLCAPE) AT PEAK HEATING. 19Z SPC MESOANALYSIS
DATA INDICATES A PRISTINE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (700-500 MB LAPSE
RATES 8.5-9 C/KM) AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION (75-150 J/KG MLCIN) OVER THE GOODLAND CWA.. AS
EVIDENCED BY CLEAR SKIES ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. AS OF 1930Z,
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF NORTON COUNTY, WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE
MID-UPPER 60'S AND THE TEMPERATURE WAS ~93F. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION (~50-150
J/KG OF MLCIN) WILL PERSIST THROUGH PEAK HEATING. THIS APPEARS
TO BE, IN PART, A FUNCTION OF PERSISTENT LOW CEILINGS/STRATUS IN
SOUTHWEST NE THIS MORNING, WHERE DIURNAL HEATING WAS DELAYED
AND TEMPERATURES AT 1930Z WERE 10-15F COOLER THAN ADJACENT KS
BORDER COUNTIES. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND, IT APPEARS THAT WEAK
FORCING AND A PERSISTENT CAP / CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL ACT AS
A BARRIER TO APPRECIABLE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFT-EVE.
CURRENT AND RECENT (12-18Z) RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATE LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE GOODLAND CWA THIS AFT-
EVE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE INVERTED-V
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES, SEASONABLY STRONG DCAPE, VERTICAL WIND
PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK (~10-15 KNOT) FLOW IN THE LOWEST
15,000 TO 20,000 FT AGL AND WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. A CONDITIONAL
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL, NEVERTHELESS, EXIST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MAINLY NORTH OF I-70 AND EAST OF HWY 83
(NORTON/GRAHAM) WHERE STRONG INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT A
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WITH ANY DEEP CONVECTION (ORGANIZED OR
NOT). FURTHER SOUTH.. IN GREELEY, WICHITA, LOGAN AND GOVE
COUNTIES, WHERE EXTREME DCAPE (~1800 J/KG) IS PRESENT..
BRIEF/ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY HIGH-
BASED CONVECTION (I.E. STORMS, SHOWERS, VIRGA).
SAT-SAT NIGHT: AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY FOSTER
MARGINAL TO MODERATE DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION (500-1000 J/KG
MLCAPE) OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON SAT, THOUGH.. SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL-NORTHERN PLAINS WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. WHILE SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW COULD ASSIST IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL CONVECTION ON THE PALMER DIVIDE
DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON, LIGHT/VARIABLE MID-LEVEL FLOW
WOULD DO LITTLE TO STEER DEVELOPMENT EAST TOWARD THE GOODLAND
CWA. EXPECT HIGHS SIMILAR-TO, ALBEIT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN,
TODAY, ~92-97F.
SUN-SUN NIGHT: A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FOSTER SENSIBLE
WEATHER CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2026
***SYNOPSIS***
MONDAY MORNING, RIDGING IS FAVORED OVERHEAD AT 500-MB. THIS LOOKS TO
TRANSITION INTO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS BROAD TROUGHING DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. GEFS AND EC 500-
MB MEAN-SPREAD GUIDANCE FAVORS THIS UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE SYSTEM EMBEDDED
IN THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LOOKS TO IMPACT THE FORECAST REGION
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS WELL.
***MONDAY***
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY MORNING
MAY SUPPORT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS EARLY IN THE DAY, THOUGH GEFS
AND EC MEMBERS SUGGEST THE FORMATION OF A WEAK, BROAD SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD ALLOW SURFACE WINDS
TO HAVE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT BY THE EVENING HOURS. EVEN SO, HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE STILL FORECAST IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID
90S. SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL. THE FAVORED ZONE FOR CONVECTION
APPEARS TO BE ALONG A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL SURFACE
LOW PASSING THROUGH THE AREA. LREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE
SHOWERS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH UP TO 3000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE
(A MEASURE OF ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY). HOWEVER, THE SAME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS 90TH PERCENTILE 500-MB WINDS AROUND 30 KTS. WHILE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR MAY BE
LACKING. IF THIS IS THE CASE, CONVECTIVE MODE WOULD LIKELY STICK
TO THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE STRONG AROUND THE TIME OF INITIATION,
BUT ARE BRIEF IN NATURE. STILL, SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE IF
90TH PERCENTILE OR HIGHER WINDS AT 500-MB CAN BE EXPERIENCED.
GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTIVE OF SHIP (SIGNIFICANT HAIL
PARAMETER) VALUES AROUND 1.5, WHICH COULD SUPPORT 2-INCH HAIL IN
THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IN A SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT ON MONDAY RESTS AROUND 5-10%.
***TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY EVENING***
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT, WITH MUCH OF
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BETWEEN 100 AND 105
DEGREES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
IS FAVORED TO CONTAIN MOISTURE, HOT TEMPERATURES COULD KEEP
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES LOW. FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RH
WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS TUESDAY, AND UPPER SINGLE-
DIGITS TO MID TEENS WEDNESDAY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MAY BE IN PLACE BOTH DAYS. NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GREATER THAN A
50% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED 30 MPH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA). THIS IS IN
ADDITION TO LREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A 30-50% CHANCE FOR RH
VALUES TO DROP INTO CRITERIA FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS MAY STRETCH FURTHER
EAST WEDNESDAY, AS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST
KANSAS ALSO HAVE A 30-50% CHANCE FOR RH MEETING CRITERIA FOR THE
HAZARD, AND UP TO A 75% CHANCE IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO.
CONFIDENCE IN A RED FLAG WARNING BEING NEEDED IS HIGHEST ON
WEDNESDAY, AROUND 30%.
***WEDNESDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY***
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO PROMOTE A COLD
FRONT OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN
THE LOWER TO UPPER 90S THURSDAY, AND MID 80S TO LOWER 90S FRIDAY.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY, WITH
FORECAST RH VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS. HOWEVER, WIND GUSTS DO
NOT LOOK TO BE AS HIGH AS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE. NBM GUIDANCE DOES STILL SUGGEST
AROUND A 2/3 CHANCE OR GREATER FOR WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED CRITERIA
(25 MPH OR GREATER) FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO, BUT LESS ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. CONFIDENCE IN A RED FLAG WARNING BEING NEEDED THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IS MUCH LOWER THAN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AROUND 10%.
COOLER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY LOWER THE RISK FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER EVEN FURTHER. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MAY INCREASE ON
FRIDAY AS WELL, AS TROUGHING CONTINUES TO EXIST TO THE WEST. NBM
24-HR PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UP TO A 25% CHANCE FOR
GREATER THAN 0.1 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
KANSAS FROM FRIDAY'S ACTIVITY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 905 AM MDT FRI JUN 5 2026
GLD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. ONGOING MVFR CEILINGS ALONG THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER
AT 15Z ARE EVER-SO-SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO CHEYENNE
COUNTY, KS. RECENT HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED CEILINGS WILL SCATTER-OUT AND/OR LIFT TO VFR
PRIOR TO REACHING THE GOODLAND TERMINAL DURING THE LATE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON. NW TO NNW WINDS AT 12-15 KNOTS THIS MORNING
WILL SHIFT TO THE NNE AND DECREASE TO 8-12 KNOTS DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD, VEERING TO THE EAST DURING THE LATE AFT-EARLY
EVE AND SOUTH TONIGHT-SAT MORNING.
MCK: ONGOING (AS OF 15Z) LIFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
SCATTER-OUT AND/OR LIFT TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED WELL S AND E (25+ MILES) OF THE MCCOOK
TERMINAL. LIGHT (~6-12 KNOT) E TO NNE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...VINCENT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page