500
FXUS63 KGLD 210546
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1146 PM MDT SAT JUN 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST KANSAS WILL SLOWLY TRACK SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. A FEW INSTANCES
OF DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.
- ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE, YET AGAIN, SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, MAINLY BETWEEN 2-9 PM MDT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 539 PM MDT SAT JUN 20 2026
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WNW LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THIS WILL
EXACERBATE FLOODING CONCERNS FOR AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY
RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL.
STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST AREA AROUND SUNRISE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1235 PM MDT SAT JUN 20 2026
TODAY, A LOW THAT'S BEEN SITTING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO
WARM INTO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S, WITH WARMEST LOCATIONS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CWA. THANKS TO THAT LOW MOVING EAST, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE, ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO GUST INTO
THE 25-35 KTS RANGE, BUT OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP AROUND 40 KTS ARE
EXPECTED.
IN THE MID-AFTERNOON IS WHEN WE EXPECT TO SEE THE BULK OF THAT
LOW ENTER THE WESTERN CWA. THIS IS WHEN WE EXPECT TO SEE
CONVECTION BEGIN, LIKELY AROUND 21-23Z. INITIALLY, CELLS LOOK TO
CLUSTER INTO A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE COLORADO BORDER, EXTENDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE
CWA. WITHIN 2-4 HOURS, IT LOOKS TO MORPH INTO A LINEAR CLUSTER
OR MESSY QLCS WITH ADDITIONAL CELLS POTENTIALLY FORMING AHEAD OF
THE STORM AND BEING INGESTED IN NORTHWESTERN KANSAS. THIS
INCREASES THE RISK FOR MERGING CELLS/TORNADOES AS IT APPROACHES
AND PASSES KS 25. THIS WAVE OF STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
FOR THIS EVENT WITH THE PEAK SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN
23-4Z. ALL HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE, INCLUDING HAIL, WIND,
BLOWING DUST, FLASH FLOODING, AND A TORNADO OR TWO. MOST
SIGNIFICANT, REALISTIC HAZARDS LOOK TO INCLUDE HAIL UP TO OR
EXCEEDING 3.5 INCHES, WINDS NEARING 80-90 MPH, MULTIPLE
TORNADOES, AND A WALL OF DUST CREATED FROM OUTFLOW. THIS WAVE
LOOKS TO EXIT THE CWA AROUND 4-6Z.
THERE IS A SECOND WAVE OF CONVECTION THAT GUIDANCE IS REALLY
PICKING UP ON NOW. THIS SECOND WAVE LOOKS TO FORM NEAR THE
NEBRASKA PAN, HANDLE AND MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST. MOST LIKELY TIME
THIS WAVE TO IMPACT THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN 4-8Z. 60-70 MPH
WINDS AND HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THE SECOND WAVE, AS WELL AS FLASH FLOODING. THE TORNADIC THREAT
IS LOW BUT NOT 0 FOR THESE STORMS. THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO BE
ENDING BY 9Z, BUT LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY PERSIST
UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE. FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FLOODING
THREAT, PLEASE SEE THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.
TONIGHT, AS CONVECTION AND THE LOW FINALLY EXIT THE CWA, WINDS
WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME NORTHERLY. LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL
WORK TO KEEP LOWS IN THE MID 50S AND MID 60S. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR PATCHY FOG SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA.
SUNDAY, ANOTHER 500 MB LOW WILL CREATE ANOTHER 850 MB AND
SURFACE LOW THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL EXTEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA,
SPARKING OFF MORE STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BEFORE THAT,
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO SATURDAY'S, MAYBE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER. CONVECTION LOOKS TO START IN TWO LOCATIONS.
THE NORTHERN SECTION LOOKS TO FORM JUST NORTH OF YUMA AND DUNDY
COUNTIES, AND MOVE SOUTHEAST. THE SOUTHERN STORMS LOOK TO FORM
AROUND FLAGER AND WILD HORSE AND MOVE EAST. 21-23Z LOOKS TO BE
THE START TIME, AND THESE STORMS, IF THEY DO MOVE IN THEIR
RESPECTIVE DIRECTIONS, WOULD CLUSTER TOGETHER AROUND THE
COLBY/HOXIE AREA. HAIL UP AROUND IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE AND WINDS
UP AROUND 60-70 MPH ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS. CONVECTION LOOKS
TO WEAKEN AROUND 9Z AGAIN. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT DO LOOK TO BE A BIT
COOLER SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, LIKELY DROPPING INTO
THE 50S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 135 PM MDT SAT JUN 20 2026
***MONDAY-WEDNESDAY***
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
500-MB TROUGH TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST REGION
LOOKS TO PRODUCE A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
COLORADO MONDAY. A CONVERGENCE ZONE WOULD BE FAVORED TO DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE NEAR COLORADO'S EASTERN BORDER, THOUGH ITS EXACT
LOCATION AND TIMING OF FORMATION IS IN QUESTION. MOST LREF
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH AROUND 1200 J/KG OF SURFACE- BASED CAPE (A MEASURE OF
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY) OR LESS, THOUGH HIGHER-END SCENARIOS
COULD SEE UP TO AROUND 2000 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME A 500-MB JET
STREAK AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE STRENGTHENING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. GFS AND EC MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THIS DEVELOPMENT COULD SUPPORT 0-6 KM
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 35-60 KTS ALONG THE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY.
STORMS MAY BE ALLOWED TO BECOME SEVERE UNDER THIS SCENARIO.
WHILE ALL HAZARDS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SETUP, THIS MAY NEED
TO BE REFINED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT, AS THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE SHORT TERM MAY MODIFY THE ENVIRONMENT SIGNIFICANTLY
BEFORE THEN.
THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TUESDAY. 850-MB GEFS
GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A LOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF COLORADO, AT THE
SAME TIME THAT THE 500-MB TROUGH FROM MONDAY MOVES OVERHEAD.
THIS WOULD PRODUCE ANOTHER ZONE OF CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE CWA
WHERE NORTHERLY AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS MEET. IN ADDITION,
THE 500-MB JET STREAK LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS PATTERN MAY
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL. SURFACE-
BASED CAPE VALUES MAY BE ALLOWED TO GET A LITTLE HIGHER ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THAN MONDAY, AS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS HAVE GREATER THAN A 50% CHANCE TO
SEE OVER 1000 J/KG BASED ON LREF GUIDANCE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AS VERTICAL SHEAR PROVIDED BY THE
UPPER-LEVEL JET REMAINS IN PLACE. FOR EACH DAY MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, CONFIDENCE IS AROUND 10-15% IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRING.
***THURSDAY-SATURDAY***
GEFS AND EC 500-MB HEIGHT MEAN-SPREAD GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT
WITH RIDGING MOVING IN OVERHEAD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS COULD
PROMOTE WARMER TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S THURSDAY, LOWER TO UPPER
80S ON FRIDAY, AND LOWER TO MID 90S ON SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL MAY STILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THOUGH IS A
LOT MORE UNCERTAIN THAN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IF AND WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR IS CONTINGENT ON THE PRESENCE AND TIMING OF
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE RIDGE. GFS AND EC
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE DOES SHOW THAT THESE FEATURES MAY BE
PRESENT. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THE PRESENCE OF THESE
SHORTWAVES ON THURSDAY, AS NBM 24-HR PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE
SHOWS THAT MOST OF THE AREA HAS A 50- 70% CHANCE OF SEEING
GREATER THAN 0.1 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION. THIS CONFIDENCE
DECREASES FRIDAY, AS THE SAME GUIDANCE SHOWS AT BEST A 1 IN 3
CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 0.1 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA. THE THUNDERSTORM RISK APPEARS TO
DIMINISH ALMOST ENTIRELY BY SATURDAY AS RIDGING TAKES FULL
AFFECT. FORECAST GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROPPING INTO THE TEENS IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS
WE APPROACH NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 PM MDT SAT JUN 20 2026
GLD: THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE GOODLAND TERMINAL EARLY THIS
MORNING (~06-08Z SUN). MVFR-IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNRISE. CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND SCATTER TO VFR BY MID- LATE
MORNING (~15Z). ASIDE FROM SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
YET ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON (~22-01Z), VFR
CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LIGHT (10-15 KNOT) ENE TO N WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF ANY STORMS.
MCK: SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE MCCOOK TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING
(~06-09Z SUN). MVFR-IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE.
CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND SCATTER TO VFR BY MID-LATE MORNING
(~15Z). ASIDE FROM SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH YET
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON (~22-02Z), VFR
CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LIGHT (10-15 KNOT) ENE TO N WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF ANY STORMS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1235 PM MDT SAT JUN 20 2026
OVER THE NEXT WEEK, WE ARE LOOKING AT NEAR DAILY CHANCES OF
CONVECTION AS PWATS RANGE AROUND 0.9-1.75 INCH. WE ARE ALSO
EXPECTING 0C LEVEL TO BE AROUND 15,000 FEET AGL, LEADING TO DEEP
MELTING LAYERS, PROMOTING EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCING STORMS.
TODAY IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE DAY COMING UP, TWO WAVES OF STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE. THE FIRST WAVE IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA, BUT AS IT MOVES EAST OF U.S. 83, BACK-BUILDING
CONVECTION MAY LEAD TO TRAINING STORMS. THIS WOULD LIKELY OCCUR
AROUND 3-6Z, AHEAD OF THE SECOND WAVE. THE SECOND WAVE HAS A 40%
CHANCE OF BEING ORIENTED ALONG IT'S DIRECTION OF TRAVEL, MAKING
IT A TRAINING STORM SYSTEM. TIMING FOR THIS THREAT WOULD BE
AROUND 5-9Z. EACH OF THESE TWO THREATS COULD PRODUCE A SWATH OF
1.5-3 INCHES OF RAIN, BUT IF THEY OVERLAP, 3-5 INCHES OF RAIN
MAY ACCUMULATE. MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE THESE HIGH PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE EAST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON, NE TO OAKLEY, KS.
A FLOOD WATCH HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED DUE TO A LACK OF CONFIDENCE
FOR LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ONE MAY BE ISSUED
LATER IF A SPECIFIC LOCATION SEEMS TO BE AT MORE OF A RISK.
SUNDAY, ADDITIONAL HIGH PRECIPITATION STORMS ARE FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. BY THEMSELVES, THEY POSE LITTLE FLOODING
THREAT, BUT IF THEY MOVE OVER AN ALREADY SATURATED AREA, THE
FLOODING RISK RETURNS.
THROUGH FRIDAY, THERE ARE RETURNING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE CWA. SIMILAR TO SUNDAY, IF STORMS KEEP PASSING OVER
THE SAME, SATURATED AREA, FLOODING BECOMES A REOCCURRING RISK.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...VINCENT
HYDROLOGY...CA
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