636
FXUS63 KGLD 211809
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1209 PM MDT SUN JUN 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 2 INCH DIAMETER HAIL, 75
MPH WIND GUSTS, AND A BRIEF TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY BETWEEN 2 PM AND 9 PM MDT.
- LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN DURING THE PAST 24-HR ARE
MORE PRONE TO EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING, SHOULD ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAIN OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.
- SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 2 INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND 70
MPH WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1208 PM MDT SUN JUN 21 2026
TODAY, A 500 MB LOW WILL CREATE AN 850 MB AND SURFACE LOW THAT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
EXTEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA, SPARKING OFF MORE STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 80 IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA, BUT NEAR 90 IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA.
CONVECTION LOOKS TO JUST NORTH OF YUMA AND DUNDY COUNTIES, AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL FIRE IN OFF AS A BROKEN LINE
TO THE SOUTHWEST. AS OF 18Z, THERE IS A CU FIELD FORMING IN THIS
AREA, WHICH WILL BECOME STORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HAIL
UP AROUND IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT EARLY ON,
BUT IF A STORM CAN REALLY TAP INTO THE SHEAR AND CAPE, 3 INCH HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE TORNADIC THREAT IS FAIRLY SIMILAR, A BIGGER
HAZARD EARLY ON. THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A GREAT TORNADIC
ENVIRONMENT AS HODOGRAPHS ARE A LITTLE TOO STRAIGHT. WINDS ARE A
THREAT THROUGH THE WHOLE EVENT, BUT MORE SO AS THE BROKEN LINE GROWS
TOGETHER. MOST LIKELY WINDS WILL BE IN THE 60-70 MPH RANGE, BUT
WINDS UP TO 80-85 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. CONVECTION LOOKS TO WEAKEN
AROUND 3Z, WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POTENTIALLY LASTING UNTIL AFTER
6Z.
LOWS TONIGHT DO LOOK TO BE A BIT COOLER SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT, LIKELY DROPPING INTO THE 50S. FOG AND STRATUS ARE LIKELY
AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY, THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS AND SENDS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. HIGHS LOOK TO
WARM INTO THE MID 70S IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA AND MID 80S IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CWA. CONVECTION LOOKS TO FIRE OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND
PALMER DIVIDE AROUND 21-23Z AND MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA. THESE CAMS
ARE SHOWING THESE STORMS DECAYING BEFORE THEY EXIT COLORADO, BUT
LOOKING AT CAPE AND SHEAR, THEY MAY CONTINUE INTO NEBRASKA AND
KANSAS. HAIL IS THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS, UP TO 2
INCHES, AND WINDS UP TO 60-70 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. THERE IS A LOW
TORNADO RISK, TOO. ADDITIONAL SUB-SEVERE CONVECTION MAY TRAIL THESE
STORMS AND LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS
TO END AROUND 3-5Z.
LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT LOOK TO COOL INTO THE 50S, MAYBE LOW 60S. FOG
AND STRATUS MAY RETURN AGAIN.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 135 PM MDT SAT JUN 20 2026
***MONDAY-WEDNESDAY***
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
500-MB TROUGH TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST REGION
LOOKS TO PRODUCE A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
COLORADO MONDAY. A CONVERGENCE ZONE WOULD BE FAVORED TO DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE NEAR COLORADO'S EASTERN BORDER, THOUGH ITS EXACT
LOCATION AND TIMING OF FORMATION IS IN QUESTION. MOST LREF
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH AROUND 1200 J/KG OF SURFACE- BASED CAPE (A MEASURE OF
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY) OR LESS, THOUGH HIGHER-END SCENARIOS
COULD SEE UP TO AROUND 2000 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME A 500-MB JET
STREAK AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE STRENGTHENING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. GFS AND EC MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THIS DEVELOPMENT COULD SUPPORT 0-6 KM
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 35-60 KTS ALONG THE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY.
STORMS MAY BE ALLOWED TO BECOME SEVERE UNDER THIS SCENARIO.
WHILE ALL HAZARDS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SETUP, THIS MAY NEED
TO BE REFINED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT, AS THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE SHORT TERM MAY MODIFY THE ENVIRONMENT SIGNIFICANTLY
BEFORE THEN.
THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TUESDAY. 850-MB GEFS
GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A LOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF COLORADO, AT THE
SAME TIME THAT THE 500-MB TROUGH FROM MONDAY MOVES OVERHEAD.
THIS WOULD PRODUCE ANOTHER ZONE OF CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE CWA
WHERE NORTHERLY AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS MEET. IN ADDITION,
THE 500-MB JET STREAK LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS PATTERN MAY
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL. SURFACE-
BASED CAPE VALUES MAY BE ALLOWED TO GET A LITTLE HIGHER ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THAN MONDAY, AS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS HAVE GREATER THAN A 50% CHANCE TO
SEE OVER 1000 J/KG BASED ON LREF GUIDANCE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AS VERTICAL SHEAR PROVIDED BY THE
UPPER-LEVEL JET REMAINS IN PLACE. FOR EACH DAY MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, CONFIDENCE IS AROUND 10-15% IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRING.
***THURSDAY-SATURDAY***
GEFS AND EC 500-MB HEIGHT MEAN-SPREAD GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT
WITH RIDGING MOVING IN OVERHEAD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS COULD
PROMOTE WARMER TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S THURSDAY, LOWER TO UPPER
80S ON FRIDAY, AND LOWER TO MID 90S ON SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL MAY STILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THOUGH IS A
LOT MORE UNCERTAIN THAN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IF AND WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR IS CONTINGENT ON THE PRESENCE AND TIMING OF
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE RIDGE. GFS AND EC
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE DOES SHOW THAT THESE FEATURES MAY BE
PRESENT. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THE PRESENCE OF THESE
SHORTWAVES ON THURSDAY, AS NBM 24-HR PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE
SHOWS THAT MOST OF THE AREA HAS A 50- 70% CHANCE OF SEEING
GREATER THAN 0.1 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION. THIS CONFIDENCE
DECREASES FRIDAY, AS THE SAME GUIDANCE SHOWS AT BEST A 1 IN 3
CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 0.1 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA. THE THUNDERSTORM RISK APPEARS TO
DIMINISH ALMOST ENTIRELY BY SATURDAY AS RIDGING TAKES FULL
AFFECT. FORECAST GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROPPING INTO THE TEENS IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS
WE APPROACH NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT SUN JUN 21 2026
THE CEILINGS ARE SLOWING LIFTING AND BREAKING ACROSS THE REGION.
KMCK AND KGLD ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 20Z.
WINDS LOOK TO BE CHAOTIC THIS AFTERNOON, SHIFTING FROM
SOUTHWESTERLY TO EASTERLY BEFORE MORE STORMS MOVE IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ONCE THE CONVECTION CLEARS, AROUND 3Z, MVFR TO
IFR CEILINGS RETURN AROUND 9Z AND WILL PERSIST UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT SUN JUN 21 2026
OVER THE NEXT WEEK, WE ARE LOOKING AT NEAR DAILY CHANCES OF
CONVECTION AS PWATS RANGE AROUND 0.9-1.75 INCH. WE ARE ALSO
EXPECTING 0C LEVEL TO BE AROUND 15,000 FEET AGL, LEADING TO DEEP
MELTING LAYERS, PROMOTING EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCING STORMS.
RECENT PRECIPITATION TOTALS (PRELIMINARY) ALONG A LINE FROM
TRENTON, NE TO GRINNELL, KS RANGE FROM 3-6 INCHES. ADDITIONALLY,
AREAS IN SOUTHERN RAWLINS AND NORTHERN THOMAS COUNTY RANGE
AROUND 2.5-5 INCHES. THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE AT THE HIGHEST RISK
FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A FLOOD WATCH HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED DUE TO A LACK OF CONFIDENCE
THAT TONIGHT'S STORMS WILL PRODUCE MORE THAN 1-1.5 INCHES OF
RAIN. GUIDANCE IS ALSO HIGHLIGHTING AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE
SATURATED LOCATIONS, REDUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR COMPOUNDING
FLOOD RISKS. CURRENT CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING
OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS AROUND 30-40%.
THROUGH FRIDAY, THERE ARE RETURNING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE CWA. IF STORMS KEEP PASSING OVER THE SAME, SATURATED
AREAS, FLOODING BECOMES A REOCCURRING RISK.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...CA
HYDROLOGY...CA
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