198
FXUS63 KGLD 221927
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
127 PM MDT MON JUN 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 2 INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND 70
MPH WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN DURING THE PAST 24-48 HOURS
ARE MORE PRONE TO EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING, SHOULD ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAIN OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT MON JUN 22 2026
OVERVIEW: WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA..
ON THE NNE PERIPHERY OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO, THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
TODAY AND TUESDAY: WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN,
EXPECT SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS (AND SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL) SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. MODEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND LIGHT (10-20 MPH) ESE-SSE UPSLOPE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO AID/
FACILITATE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE TYPICAL
GEOGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS (E.G. PALMER DIVIDE, CHEYENNE
RIDGE). WITH RIGHT-MOVER MOTION FROM THE NW AND N, CYCLONIC
UPDRAFTS EMANATING FROM THE PALMER DIVIDE WILL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO EASTERN CO. WHILE INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
(CAP STRENGTH) WITH EASTERN EXTENT FROM THE CO-KS BORDER WILL
TEND TO SUPPRESS DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHWEST KS, DOWNSTREAM
PROPAGATION *INTO* NORTHWEST KS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 126 PM MDT MON JUN 22 2026
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY FOR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA). OUR REGION IS FORECAST
TO BE IN A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING
THROUGH THE AREA. SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE FOR THE CWA WITH
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) FROM 60-90% WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH AROUND 1500-
2500 J/KG OF CAPE AND 20-40 KNOTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. SUPERCELLS
WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHS STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN SINCE THE ENTIRE CWA HAS
RECEIVED SUBSTANTIAL RAIN RECENTLY.
FRIDAY, WE ENTER MORE OF A WEAK RIDGING PATTERN WITH AN INCOMING
TROUGH WEST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE 80S. SATURDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO WARM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN
THE MID TO HIGH 90S FOR THE CWA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1112 AM MDT MON JUN 22 2026
CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING ACROSS THE REGION AS CEILINGS LIFT AND
BREAK APART. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR AT LEAST KGLD LOOK TO START
GUSTING INTO THE 20-25 KTS MARK THIS AFTERNOON. KMCK LOOKS TO
STAY UNDER 20 KTS, BUT WILL UPDATE THE TAF IF STRONGER WINDS
LOOK LIKELY. STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
AND POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST
REMAINS VERY FLUID, SO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON FUTURE UPDATED AND
OBSERVATIONS. AROUND 9Z, MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO BOTH KGLD AND KMCK, POTENTIALLY
LIFTING IN THE MID-MORNING, DEPENDING ON PRECIPITATION.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT SUN JUN 21 2026
OVER THE NEXT WEEK, WE ARE LOOKING AT NEAR DAILY CHANCES OF
CONVECTION AS PWATS RANGE AROUND 0.9-1.75 INCH. WE ARE ALSO
EXPECTING 0C LEVEL TO BE AROUND 15,000 FEET AGL, LEADING TO DEEP
MELTING LAYERS, PROMOTING EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCING STORMS.
RECENT PRECIPITATION TOTALS (PRELIMINARY) ALONG A LINE FROM
TRENTON, NE TO GRINNELL, KS RANGE FROM 3-6 INCHES. ADDITIONALLY,
AREAS IN SOUTHERN RAWLINS AND NORTHERN THOMAS COUNTY RANGE
AROUND 2.5-5 INCHES. THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE AT THE HIGHEST RISK
FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A FLOOD WATCH HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED DUE TO A LACK OF CONFIDENCE
THAT TONIGHT'S STORMS WILL PRODUCE MORE THAN 1-1.5 INCHES OF
RAIN. GUIDANCE IS ALSO HIGHLIGHTING AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE
SATURATED LOCATIONS, REDUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR COMPOUNDING
FLOOD RISKS. CURRENT CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING
OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS AROUND 30-40%.
THROUGH FRIDAY, THERE ARE RETURNING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE CWA. IF STORMS KEEP PASSING OVER THE SAME, SATURATED
AREAS, FLOODING BECOMES A REOCCURRING RISK.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KSZ001>003.
CO...NONE.
NE...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NEZ079-080.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...CA
HYDROLOGY...CA
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