349
FXUS63 KGLD 230429
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1029 PM MDT MON JUN 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 2 INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND
70 MPH WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN DURING THE PAST 24-48 HOURS
ARE MORE PRONE TO EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING, SHOULD ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAIN OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1014 PM MDT MON JUN 22 2026
TONIGHT, WE LOOK TO HAVE UP TO 2,000 J/KG CAPE AND 30-50 KTS OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THIS SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL FORM OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY MORNING
UNTIL AS LATE AS 15Z. HAIL IN THE 1 INCH RANGE AND WINDS UP TO
60 MPH. MULTIPLE CAMS ARE NOW SHOWING THIS THREAT PERSISTING
INTO THE MIDDAY TUESDAY ALONG THE EASTERN CWA TO VARYING DEGREES
OF SEVERITY, AND MAY ONLY BE SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL THUNDER.
LOCATIONS FOR THIS PRECIPITATION COULD BE ANYWHERE ALONG AND
EAST OF KS 25 WITH SOUTH- SOUTHEAST MOVING STORMS. LOWS TONIGHT
LOOK TO COOL INTO THE 50S, MAYBE LOW 60S. FOG AND STRATUS MAY
FORM WHERE THERE IS NOT ONGOING CONVECTION.
TOMORROW, THE PATTERN CONTINUES AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDES
THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. HIGHS LOOK TO WARM INTO THE MID 70S AND MID
80S. STORMS LOOK TO FIRE IN EASTERN COLORADO AROUND 21-00Z AND
PROGRESS TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. HAZARDS LOOK TO MAINLY INCLUDE HAIL
UP TO 3 INCHES, WINDS UP TO 70 MPH, AND A SLIGHT TORNADO THREAT FOR
EASTERN COLORADO. PEAK SEVERE TIMING LOOK TO BE AROUND 23-5Z. IT'S
WORTH NOTING, STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PERSIST INTO THE MIDDAY, THE
EVENING SEVERE THREAT IS DRAMATICALLY LOWER.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT, BUT STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT LIKELY. LOWS LOOK TO COOL INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S
WITH FOG AND STRATUS LIKELY MAKING A RETURN.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 126 PM MDT MON JUN 22 2026
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY FOR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA). OUR REGION IS FORECAST
TO BE IN A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING
THROUGH THE AREA. SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE FOR THE CWA WITH
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) FROM 60-90% WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH AROUND 1500-
2500 J/KG OF CAPE AND 20-40 KNOTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. SUPERCELLS
WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHS STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN SINCE THE ENTIRE CWA HAS
RECEIVED SUBSTANTIAL RAIN RECENTLY.
FRIDAY, WE ENTER MORE OF A WEAK RIDGING PATTERN WITH AN INCOMING
TROUGH WEST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE 80S. SATURDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO WARM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN
THE MID TO HIGH 90S FOR THE CWA.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 356 PM MDT MON JUN 22 2026
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS THE REGION AND VFR CONDITIONS
HAVE RETURNED. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR AT LEAST KGLD LOOK TO
CONTINUE GUSTING INTO THE 20-25 KTS MARK THIS AFTERNOON. KMCK IS
STARTING TO HAVE OCCASIONAL GUSTS ABOVE 20 KTS, BUT THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY INFREQUENT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING.
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST REMAINS VERY FLUID, SO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON FUTURE UPDATED AND OBSERVATIONS. AROUND 9Z, MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK, POTENTIALLY LIFTING IN THE MID-MORNING, DEPENDING ON
PRECIPITATION.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT MON JUN 22 2026
THROUGH THURSDAY, WE ARE LOOKING AT NEAR DAILY CHANCES OF CONVECTION
AS PWATS RANGE AROUND 0.9-1.75 INCH. WE ARE ALSO EXPECTING 0C LEVEL
TO BE AROUND 15,000 FEET AGL, LEADING TO DEEP MELTING LAYERS,
PROMOTING EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCING STORMS.
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR DUNDY, HITCHCOCK, CHEYENNE (KS),
RAWLINS AND DECATUR COUNTIES UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. OVER THE PAST 48
HOURS, 3-6 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE AREA, LEADING TO
FLOODING. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
WHICH MAY COMPOUND THE FLOODING ISSUE. TWO CLUSTERS OF STORMS ARE
FORECAST TODAY, WITH THE NORTHERN CLUSTER HAVING A 50-60% CHANCE OF
ADDING 0.5-2.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE WATCHED AREA.
THERE IS A SECOND CHANCE OF STORMS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE FOR THESE STORMS' LOCATIONS AND
INTENSITY IS LOW, IF THEY EVEN FORM. HOWEVER, THERE IS A 15% CHANCE
THEY OCCUR OVER THE WATCHED AREA, LEADING TO YET MORE PRECIPITATION.
TUESDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE TRI-STATE
AREA. INTENSITY AND LOCATION ARE STILL UP IN THE AIR, BASED ON
TODAY'S STORMS AND HOW MUCH CONVECTION OCCURS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY, THERE ARE RETURNING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ001>003.
CO...NONE.
NE...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MDT /7 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ079-080.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...CA
HYDROLOGY...CA
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