837
FXUS63 KGLD 231651
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1051 AM MDT TUE JUN 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SUB-SEVERE SHOWERS/STORMS AND FOG ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING.
- SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO 3 INCH DIAMETER HAIL,
80 MPH WIND GUSTS AND MAYBE A TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FAVORED AREA IS EASTERN COLORADO,
BUT THE ENTIRE AREA HAS A CHANCE.
- LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN DURING THE PAST 24-48 HOURS
ARE MORE PRONE TO EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING, SHOULD ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAIN OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.
- SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 156 AM MDT TUE JUN 23 2026
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN UPPER LOW CLOSE TO THE US/CANADA BORDER
AROUND MT/ND. MEANWHILE, A LARGE UPPER HIGH IS POSITIONED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THIS
HAS BEEN GIVING THE AREA PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. NEAR
THE SURFACE, THERE IS A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS MUCH
OF THE MIDWEST, WITH LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES.
THIS HAS KEPT THE AREA IN DECENT SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10-20 MPH. THIS HAS ALSO BEEN TRANSPORTING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
60S. THE COMBINATION OF THESE CONDITIONS HAS BEEN SUPPORTING
THE STORMS THAT WE HAD EARLIER IN THE DAY. HOWEVER, THE CONSTANT
CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE THE LAST FEW HOURS SEEMS TO
BE DRAINING THE INSTABILITY AS STORM INTENSITY AND COVERAGE HAVE
BEEN LOWERING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THIS
SHIFTS CONCERNS TO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE ADDITIONAL
STORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING NEAR SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. WITH THE
HELP OF THE UPPER LOW AXIS SWINGING SOUTHEAST, THE STORMS MIGHT
BE ABLE TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. IF THIS IS THE CASE, SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD LINGER IN
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
THEY WOULD LIKELY BE SUB-SEVERE WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY FROM
PRIOR CONVECTION AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND FOG
THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN THIS MORNING WITH THE MOISTURE
ADVECTION. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS/STORMS, MOST OF THE
AREA SHOULD ONLY WARM INTO THE 70S WITH 80S MORE LIKELY FOR
COUNTIES ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER (AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
SHOWERS/STORMS).
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, 2 DIFFERENT SCENARIOS MAY PLAY OUT. IF
THE SHOWERS, STORMS, AND CLOUD COVER LINGER IN MOST OF THE AREA,
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO WHATEVER STORMS DEVELOP
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WITHIN THE
CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW. THE OTHER SCENARIO IS THAT WE
GET A BREAK FURTHER EAST INTO THE AREA THAT ALLOWS INITIAL STORMS TO
DEVELOP IN COUNTIES ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. IN THE SECOND
SCENARIO, WE WOULD NOT ONLY HAVE THE INITIAL STORMS, BUT THE STORMS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS WELL. THIS PRESENTS A RISK FOR
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER, MAINLY IN EASTERN COLORADO AND ADJACENT
COUNTIES. THE FORECAST ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO HAVE MUCAPE AROUND
2000-3500 J/KG, 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 50-60 KTS, AND DOWNSHEAR VECTORS
AROUND 50-60 KTS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST AND ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF
VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO 3 INCHES AND WIND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LIKELY
AROUND 60-70 MPH, BUT MAYBE UP TO 80 MPH. WITH THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF
SHEAR, LARGE HAIL MAY STRUGGLE TO FORM AS STORMS SPLIT AND CLUSTER.
STORM MOTIONS THOUGH AROUND 15-25 MPH MAY BE SLOW ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
UPDRAFT TOGETHER. THE SLOW STORMS MOTIONS ALSO POSE A FLOODING
PROBLEM WITH THESE STORMS LIKELY TO BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS. A
TORNADO OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS GET THEMSELVES
TOGETHER INITIALLY, BUT WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR LESS THAN 10 KTS
MAY HINDER A BIT TOO MUCH. LCLS AROUND 1000 METERS ALSO WOULD
ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORT TORNADOES. BE CAREFUL THOUGH AS A STRONG
TORNADO MAY OCCUR WITH AN ISOLATED AND WELL ORGANIZED
SUPERCELL.
LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT, THE STORMS SHOULD CLUSTER AND
MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE CLUSTER
FORMS, THE CLUSTER COULD MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH WIND AS
THE MAIN THREAT AT THAT POINT. OTHERWISE, THOSE SOUTH OF I-70
CURRENTLY SEEMED TO BE FAVORED. ONCE THE CLUSTER MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA, SOME LINGER SHOWERS/STORMS MAY BE ISOLATED ACROSS THE AREA.
THE MAIN STORY THEN WILL BE THE CLOUD COVER AND FOG MOVING BACK INTO
MOST OF THE AREA. IN THE ABSENCE OF STORMS, THE FOG MAY BE
DENSE AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY IN THE 60S, WITH MAYBE
SOME 50S FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IF THE SKIES CAN
CLEAR.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 126 PM MDT MON JUN 22 2026
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY FOR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA). OUR REGION IS FORECAST
TO BE IN A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING
THROUGH THE AREA. SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE FOR THE CWA WITH
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) FROM 60-90% WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH AROUND 1500-
2500 J/KG OF CAPE AND 20-40 KNOTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. SUPERCELLS
WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHS STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN SINCE THE ENTIRE CWA HAS
RECEIVED SUBSTANTIAL RAIN RECENTLY.
FRIDAY, WE ENTER MORE OF A WEAK RIDGING PATTERN WITH AN INCOMING
TROUGH WEST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE 80S. SATURDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO WARM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN
THE MID TO HIGH 90S FOR THE CWA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1048 AM MDT TUE JUN 23 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA ALONG
WITH SOME STRATUS. AM WATCHING SOME STORMS THAT MAY BE MOVING
CLOSE TO THE GLD TERMINAL SO WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CEILINGS FOR
THIS ALONG WITH A TEMPO AS BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ARE
POSSIBLE. RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO WANE AS THE AFTERNOON
GOES ON BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A 5-10% CHANCE OF A SEVERE
STORM ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME VCTS AT GLD.
FOG AND STRATUS IS FORECAST TO RETURN OVERNIGHT FOR EACH
TERMINAL, DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE. THE ISSUE IS THAT SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE AGAIN FORECAST TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT, WITH GLD
CURRENTLY FAVORED. CAN'T RULE OUT SEVERE WEATHER.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT MON JUN 22 2026
THROUGH THURSDAY, WE ARE LOOKING AT NEAR DAILY CHANCES OF CONVECTION
AS PWATS RANGE AROUND 0.9-1.75 INCH. WE ARE ALSO EXPECTING 0C LEVEL
TO BE AROUND 15,000 FEET AGL, LEADING TO DEEP MELTING LAYERS,
PROMOTING EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCING STORMS.
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR DUNDY, HITCHCOCK, CHEYENNE (KS),
RAWLINS AND DECATUR COUNTIES UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. OVER THE PAST 48
HOURS, 3-6 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE AREA, LEADING TO
FLOODING. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING,
WHICH MAY COMPOUND THE FLOODING ISSUE.
TUESDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE TRI-STATE
AREA. INTENSITY AND LOCATION ARE STILL UP IN THE AIR, BASED ON
TODAY'S STORMS AND HOW MUCH CONVECTION OCCURS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY, THERE ARE RETURNING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR KSZ001>004-015-016-
029.
CO...NONE.
NE...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...TRIGG
HYDROLOGY...CA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page