408
FXUS63 KGLD 231834
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1234 PM MDT TUE JUN 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SUB-SEVERE SHOWERS/STORMS AND FOG ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING.
- SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO 3 INCH DIAMETER HAIL,
80 MPH WIND GUSTS AND MAYBE A TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FAVORED AREA IS EASTERN COLORADO,
BUT THE ENTIRE AREA HAS A CHANCE.
- ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING WEDNESDAY.
- LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS ARE MORE PRONE TO EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS. FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS.
- SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1205 PM MDT TUE JUN 23 2026
NW FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES. THESE SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO LEAD TO
DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE MORNING. MAIN FOCUS
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A DEVELOPING MCS AND
ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS
PARALLEL WITH THE OVERALL MEAN FLOW AND CONTINUES WITH THE
FLOODING THREAT. EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
OBSERVED ACROSS DUNDY AND HITCHCOCK THIS MORNING WITH 1-2 INCH
PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES BEING OBSERVED WHICH IS FURTHER
EXACERBATING THE FLOODING THREAT FROM THE HEAVY RAIN THAT WAS
OBSERVED OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE OVERNIGHT HEAVY RAIN (WHICH I WILL GET INTO HERE LATER)
HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 15Z WEDNESDAY.
AS MENTIONED CONCERN IS INCREASING FOR A POTENTIAL MCS CURRENTLY
ORIGINATING IN WESTERN NEBRASKA AND MOVING THROUGH FAVORING
LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 25. WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH MAY
BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS MCS AS IT MOVES THROUGH ALONG ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF SEVERE HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFT. 12Z RAP DATA
DOES HAVE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE WINDS TO THE WEST
OF HIGHWAY 25 SO IF THE MCS COULD TRACK A LITTLE FURTHER WEST THEN
THE SEVERE THREAT WOULD INCREASE. WITH THIS MCS, FLOODING REMAINS A
CONCERN WITH 1-2 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES EXPECTED IN THE
HEAVIER CORES. RADAR FROM STORMS EARLIER THIS MORNING ESTIMATES 1-2
INCHES OF NEW RAINFALL ACROSS FAR EAST DUNDY AND NORTHER/WESTERN
HITCHCOCK COUNTY SO WILL NEED TO CLOSELY WATCH THIS AREA AS THE MCS
MOVES THROUGH. 12Z DATA IS FURTHER SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHER RAINFALL RATES AS WELL WITH THIS MCS AS IT MOVES ACROSS
ALREADY SATURATED PORTIONS OF THE CWA SO HAVE OPTED TO EXPAND THE
FLOOD WATCH INTO RED WILLOW, NORTON, SHERIDAN, GRAHAM AND GOVE
COUNTIES.
NOW TO THIS AFTERNOON, EVENING AND TONIGHT. HREF AND REFS PAINT
BALLS SUGGEST THAT THERE IS AROUND 10% CHANCE OF A DISCRETE
SUPERCELL DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO BETWEEN 22-02Z
WHICH WOULD BE CAPABLE OF ALL HAZARDS. THE BIG QUESTION FOR THE
DAY IS HOW LONG WILL THE CLOUD COVER HOLD ACROSS COLORADO AND
WILL THE DAYTIME SHOWERS AND STORMS STABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT.
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOOK TO BE
MAIN DRIVER SHOULD ANY DISCRETE CELLS DEVELOP. THE NEXT MAIN
FORM OF FORCING IS OVERNIGHT AFTER 06Z AS 500MB SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE CENTER PART OF THE AREA AND CORRELATES WITH THE NOSE
OF A 700MB JET. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ALONG THIS NOSE LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE HEAVY TO
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL. ALONG THE 700MB JET NOSE CAPE IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE FURTHER WHICH LOOKS TO BE WHERE OUR SEVERE
POTENTIAL MAY LIE. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARD ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL IF WE COULD GET A
SUSTAINED SUPERCELL.
ON TOP OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS A FAIRLY STRONG SIGNAL FOR FOG IS
FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS WELL. SURFACE TO 1KM MIXING
RATIO DIFFERENCES AROUND 3-4 G/KG WHICH SUGGESTS THAT SOME DENSE FOG
MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT AT THIS TIME AM NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG. SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT HOWEVER MAY DISRUPT THE FOG,
SO WILL MAINTAIN THE PATCHY FOG WORDING IN THE FORECAST FROM
THE PREVIOUS SHIFT.
RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING
WEDNESDAY BUT MAY LAST LONGER. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS SEEN WITH A SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE
OFF OF THE ROCKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
TO THE EAST INTO THE AREA. INITIALLY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH ALL HAZARDS BEFORE CLUSTERING TOGETHER INTO
ANOTHER MCS AS THE EVENING AND NIGHT GOES AS THE AREA BECOMES IN
THE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A DEVELOPING 500MB JET WHICH
WILL FURTHER HELP INCREASE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. LARGE
TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS. IF A BOWING SEGMENT CAN OCCUR INITIALLY THEN
WIND GUSTS MAY EXCEED 80 MPH. A TORNADO OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE
AS WELL AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES DURING THE EVENING.
FLOODING IS FORECAST AGAIN TO BECOME AN ISSUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE SIGNAL IS
THERE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF RAINFALL TO
OCCUR.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 126 PM MDT MON JUN 22 2026
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY FOR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA). OUR REGION IS FORECAST
TO BE IN A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING
THROUGH THE AREA. SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE FOR THE CWA WITH
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) FROM 60-90% WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH AROUND 1500-
2500 J/KG OF CAPE AND 20-40 KNOTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. SUPERCELLS
WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHS STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN SINCE THE ENTIRE CWA HAS
RECEIVED SUBSTANTIAL RAIN RECENTLY.
FRIDAY, WE ENTER MORE OF A WEAK RIDGING PATTERN WITH AN INCOMING
TROUGH WEST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE 80S. SATURDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO WARM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN
THE MID TO HIGH 90S FOR THE CWA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1048 AM MDT TUE JUN 23 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA ALONG
WITH SOME STRATUS. AM WATCHING SOME STORMS THAT MAY BE MOVING
CLOSE TO THE GLD TERMINAL SO WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CEILINGS FOR
THIS ALONG WITH A TEMPO AS BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ARE
POSSIBLE. RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO WANE AS THE AFTERNOON
GOES ON BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A 5-10% CHANCE OF A SEVERE
STORM ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME VCTS AT GLD.
FOG AND STRATUS IS FORECAST TO RETURN OVERNIGHT FOR EACH
TERMINAL, DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE. THE ISSUE IS THAT SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE AGAIN FORECAST TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT, WITH GLD
CURRENTLY FAVORED. CAN'T RULE OUT SEVERE WEATHER.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1205 PM MDT TUE JUN 23 2026
MCS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING HAS MOVED OVER LOCATIONS
THAT HAS SEEN THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL FROM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
THESE HAVE BEEN VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS WITH 1.5-2.5
PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES. A REPORT OF 3+ INCHES HAS BEEN RECEIVED
FROM NORTHERN HITCHCOCK COUNTY SINCE MIDNIGHT. THE FLOOD WATCH
WAS EXPANDED EARLIER TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ROUND OF HEAVY
RAIN ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT.
THE FAVORED AREA FOR TONIGHT IS MAINLY FOR SHERIDAN, GRAHAM AND
GOVE COUNTIES AS THE NOSE OF A 700MB JET SETS UP OVER THOSE
COUNTIES. HIGH PWATS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE AS WELL LEADING TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AS THIS MORNINGS HEAVY RAIN MAY HAVE
EXACERBATED ALREADY SATURATED SOILS FROM THE WEEKEND. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE HEAVY RAINS TO CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE
MID MORNING HOURS AS WELL.
ASSUMING EVERYTHING CAN REMAIN ON PAR WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST, ADDITIONAL, PERHAPS EVEN MORE IMPACTFUL FLOODING MAY
OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS STORMS MERGE INTO AN MCS FROM DISCRETE
CELLS FROM COLORADO. VERY HIGH PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BUT THE MORE CONCERNING FEATURE I'M SEEING
WITH CURRENT GUIDANCE IS SLOWER CORFIDI VECTORS WHICH MAY LEAD
TO MORE OF A BACKBUILDING AND TRAINING THREAT. VERY STRONG
AGREEMENT WITHIN ENSEMBLE QPF AMOUNTS AS WELL OF INCHES OF
RAINFALL OCCURRING. I CONTEMPLATED EXPANDING AND FURTHER
EXTENDING THE FLOOD WATCH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SIGNAL BUT WANTED
TO HOLD OFF AND ENSURE ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING
DON'T DISRUPT THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR KSZ001>004-015-016-
029.
CO...NONE.
NE...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...TRIGG
HYDROLOGY...TRIGG
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