041
FXUS63 KGLD 241144
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
544 AM MDT WED JUN 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. EASTERN COLORADO HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER, BUT THE ENTIRE AREA HAS A CHANCE. LARGE HAIL
POTENTIALLY REACHING 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER, WIND GUSTS OF
60-80 MPH, AND MAYBE A TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE.
- LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS ARE MORE PRONE TO EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS. FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS.
- SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 424 AM MDT WED JUN 24 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA AND
AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SWING EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS. AS THE
SURFACE LOW SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTH AND THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS FURTHER
EAST, THE REMAINING BANDS OF STORMS AND SHOWERS SHOULD SHIFT
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA AND END WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE CLOUD COVER TO THIN OUT AS THE MORNING GOES ON
AND LEAD TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE AREA
REMAINING UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND LITTLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN WARM INTO THE 70S WITH MAYBE A FEW 80S.
SOME SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN THE WEST MAY MOVE OVER THE AREA HIGH IN
THE SKY AND HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES MORE IN THE 70S.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS, STORMS ARE FORECAST
TO AGAIN FIRE UP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND POTENTIALLY IN EASTERN
COLORADO WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW STILL FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. IF
THE STORMS DEVELOP IN EASTERN COLORADO, THEN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA COULD SEE STORMS AS EARLY AS 4-7PM MT. OTHERWISE, THE STORMS
FROM THE FRONT RANGE SHOULD PUSH EAST AND ENTER THE AREA AFTER 9PM
MT. THE MAIN HINDRANCE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE A
POTENTIAL CAP IN PLACE ACROSS THE WEST. SHOULD THE CAP HOLD, THE
SEVERE CHANCES WOULD BE MUCH LOWER AS LIKELY CLUSTER OF STORMS LATE
IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WOULD BE THE ONLY STORMS TO MOVE
THROUGH. THESE STORMS WOULD STILL POSE A SEVERE WIND AND MAYBE
SEVERE HAIL RISK. FLOODING WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH HIGH PWATS
AND POTENTIAL TRAINING OF STORMS IN CLUSTERS. SHOULD THE CAP BREAK,
VERY STRONG STORMS WOULD THEN FORM IN THE AREA AND COULD PRODUCE
VERY LARGE HAIL AND MAYBE A TORNADO OR TWO. REGARDLESS OF WHICH
SCENARIO OCCURS, CAPE IS LIKELY TO DECREASE AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST
AND LOWER THEIR INTENSITY. WITH THIS, THE CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER ARE LARGELY CONFINED TO EASTERN COLORADO, MAYBE INTO
ADJACENT COUNTIES.
AS MENTIONED PRIOR, THE STORM CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO LINGER ALL
NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WITH THE REPEATED
ROUNDS OF STORMS POSSIBLE AND CHANCES FOR AN ADDITIONAL FEW INCHES,
HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THAT HAS
SEEN HEAVY RAINFALL THE PAST FEW DAYS. IT WON'T TAKE MUCH FOR SOME
FLOODING UNFORTUNATELY. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND STORMS,
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY IN THE 60S OR HIGHER THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 130 PM MDT TUE JUN 23 2026
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THURSDAY FOR THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA). OUR REGION IS FORECAST TO BE IN A MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THROUGH THE AREA.
SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE FOR THE CWA WITH PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION (POPS) OF 60-90% THURSDAY. INSTABILITY HAS DECREASED
SINCE YESTERDAY'S MODEL RUNS, BUT THE ENVIRONMENT IS STILL
SUPPORTIVE OF A WIND AND HAIL RISK WITH CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG AND
AROUND 20 KNOTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A SKINNY
CAPE PROFILE. THIS, COMBINED WITH RECENT SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL ACROSS
THE CWA, RAISES FLOODING CONCERNS.
FRIDAY, WE TRANSITION TO MORE OF A WEAK RIDGING PATTERN WITH AN
INCOMING TROUGH WEST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE 80S. SATURDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO WARM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S FOR THE CWA.
SATURDAY ONWARD WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY WINDY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS
AROUND 35 MPH POSSIBLE FOR OUR COLORADO COUNTIES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 537 AM MDT WED JUN 24 2026
FOR KGLD & KMCK... STORMS HAVE CAUSE CEILINGS TO BE INCONSISTENT
TO START THE DAY. THE FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR CEILINGS TO
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 500-1500FT THROUGH ABOUT 14-16Z, BUT VFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AFTER 16-18Z
WITH WINDS ROUGHLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10-15 KTS. STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS AGAIN, ESPECIALLY AFTER
06Z. THE STORMS COULD START AS EARLY AS 00Z. IF THE STORMS FORM,
THEY MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS ABOVE 50-70
KTS. THE EARLIER THE STORMS FORM, THE MORE LIKELY THEY ARE TO BE
SEVERE. LOW CEILINGS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE CLOSE TO 09-12Z,
BUT SHOWERS/STORMS MAY INTERFERE AND KEEP CEILINGS ABOVE
3000FT.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1205 PM MDT TUE JUN 23 2026
** UPDATED 6/24/26 425 AM MDT **
ASSUMING EVERYTHING CAN REMAIN ON PAR WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST, ADDITIONAL, PERHAPS EVEN MORE IMPACTFUL FLOODING MAY
OCCUR TONIGHT AS STORMS MERGE INTO AN MCS FROM DISCRETE CELLS
FROM COLORADO. VERY HIGH PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN BUT THE MORE CONCERNING FEATURE I'M SEEING WITH CURRENT
GUIDANCE IS SLOWER CORFIDI VECTORS WHICH MAY LEAD TO MORE OF A
BACKBUILDING AND TRAINING THREAT. WITH THIS AND GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING A FEW INCHES OF QPF ARE POSSIBLE, HAVE EXPANDED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO COVER COUNTIES FROM LOGAN TO WALLACE TO KIT
CARSON AND NORTH. THESE AREAS ALSO SAW AN ESTIMATED 1-3 INCHES
FROM STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PARTS OF KIT CARSON COUNTY
POTENTIALLY SEEING 4+".
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-
027>029.
CO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR COZ090-091.
NE...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...KAK
HYDROLOGY...TRIGG/KAK
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