966
FXUS63 KGLD 241941
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
141 PM MDT WED JUN 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE HAIL POTENTIALLY REACHING 4 INCHES IN
DIAMETER, WIND GUSTS OF 60-80 MPH, AND MAYBE A TORNADO OR TWO
ARE POSSIBLE.
- LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS ARE MORE PRONE TO EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS. FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS.
- SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 139 PM MDT WED JUN 24 2026
TODAY, SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT MUCH SOONER THAN MOST GUIDANCE. THIS
WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIALLY MORE CAPE FOR
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT TO FEED OFF OF. HIGHS ARE NOW
FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE CWA. CONVECTION
LOOKS TO FIRE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE CWA IN THE MID-AFTERNOON AND
ENTER THE CWA AROUND 23-01Z. A WIDE 500 MB TROUGH IS WHAT WILL BE
THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND ALL OF THIS PRECIPITATION. I MENTION IT'S
WIDE, BECAUSE IT COULD STRETCH FROM THE CO/UT TO KS/MO BORDER
OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS A LOW THREAT OF LANDSPOUTS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM GOVE TO YUMA COUNTIES BEFORE
THE MAIN STORMS MOVE IN.
SEVERE THREATS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL START OFF WITH HAIL
AROUND OR LARGER THAN 3 INCHES AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES BEING
POSSIBLE, BUT NOT LIKELY. RFD WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE 80 MPH
RANGE EARLY ON AS STORMS ARE MORE ISOLATED AND STARTING TO CLUSTER.
ONCE THEY HAVE CLUSTERED, THE HAIL THREAT LOWERS TO THE 1-2 INCH
RANGE, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR 80 MPH INCREASES AND IF A BOWING
SEGMENT FORMS. THE THREAT FOR A TORNADO LOWERS SIGNIFICANTLY
OVERNIGHT, BUT A BRIEF QLCS TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO PERSIST UNTIL 6-9Z WITH LINGERING SUB-
SEVERE STORMS AND SHOWERS LASTING UNTIL AS LATE AS NOON TOMORROW.
THIS LEADS TO AN ADDITIONAL FLOODING THREAT, DISCUSSED BELOW IN THE
HYDRO SECTION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO COOL TO AROUND 60 AND AREAS THAT ARE NOT
EXPERIENCING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY SEE LOW STRATUS AND FOG.
TOMORROW'S HIGH HEAVILY DEPEND ON HOW LOW CONVECTION LASTS, BUT MAY
BE CAPPED IN THE 60S FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CWA AND NEAR 80 FOR THE
SOUTHERN CWA.
THE CONVECTION LOOKS TO HAVE A LULL SOMETIME IN THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON, BUT THERE'S ONLY ABOUT 50-60% CONFIDENCE IN THIS
LULL. IN THE AFTERNOON TO LATE EVENING, ANOTHER WAVE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS MAY FORM IN EASTERN COLORADO AND MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
CWA. THE 500 MB TROUGH THAT WILL BE FORCING THIS LOOKS TO ONLY LEAD
TO SPOTTY, WIDESPREAD VORTICITY. THIS LOWERS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER, BUT THERE IS STILL A 10-20% CHANCE FOR 1-2 INCH HAIL
AND 60 MPH WINDS. THIS SEVERE THREAT COULD ONCE AGAIN BE FOCUSED
MORE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT THE CONVECTION
EARLY IN THE MORNING MAY PREVENT ANY EVENING SEVERE STORMS FROM
OCCURRING. ONCE AGAIN, CONVECTION MAY LAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT WED JUN 24 2026
FRIDAY, OUR REGION IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION OUT OF A MOSTLY ZONAL
PATTERN INTO A WEAK RIDGING PATTERN WITH AN INCOMING TROUGH WEST OF
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE 70S TO
80S WITH AROUND A 20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED DUE TO
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN, BUT ISOLATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE HOT AND DRY
WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE 90S TO 100S. RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH)
VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TEENS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE RECENT
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA), THIS
LESSENS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.
CONDITIONS COOL SLIGHTLY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90S FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS
AFTER TUESDAY AS AN INCOMING TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH OUR
REGION. LOW CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFICS SINCE THIS IS THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1034 AM MDT WED JUN 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, DEPENDING ON HOW DENSE THE CLOUD COVER BECOME AS CU
FORMS. WE ARE EXPECTING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO PICK UP ACROSS
THE REGION, LIKELY GUSTING AROUND 20 KTS BEFORE SUNSET. STORMS
WILL BE MOVING THIS EVENING AND LINGER THROUGH MOST OF TOMORROW.
NEAR MINIMUM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK
AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1205 PM MDT TUE JUN 23 2026
** UPDATED 6/24/26 425 AM MDT **
ASSUMING EVERYTHING CAN REMAIN ON PAR WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST, ADDITIONAL, PERHAPS EVEN MORE IMPACTFUL FLOODING MAY
OCCUR TONIGHT AS STORMS MERGE INTO AN MCS FROM DISCRETE CELLS
FROM COLORADO. VERY HIGH PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN BUT THE MORE CONCERNING FEATURE I'M SEEING WITH CURRENT
GUIDANCE IS SLOWER CORFIDI VECTORS WHICH MAY LEAD TO MORE OF A
BACKBUILDING AND TRAINING THREAT. WITH THIS AND GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING A FEW INCHES OF QPF ARE POSSIBLE, HAVE EXPANDED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO COVER COUNTIES FROM LOGAN TO WALLACE TO KIT
CARSON AND NORTH. THESE AREAS ALSO SAW AN ESTIMATED 1-3 INCHES
FROM STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PARTS OF KIT CARSON COUNTY
POTENTIALLY SEEING 4+".
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-
027>029-041-042.
CO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR COZ090-091.
NE...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...CA
HYDROLOGY...TRIGG/KAK
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