641
FXUS63 KGLD 251720
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1120 AM MDT THU JUN 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS DIMINISHED EARLY THIS MORNING. A
STRONG LINE OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST ALONG
I-70, WITH HEAVY RAIN, SMALL HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING THE MAIN THREATS.
- BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING. CLOUD
COVERAGE TODAY MAY LOWER OVERALL SEVERE STORM CHANCES TODAY.
BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF I-70 AND
IN EASTERN COLORADO.
- LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS ARE MORE PRONE TO EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS. FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS.
- SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 150 AM MDT THU JUN 25 2026
A STRONG LINE OF STORMS STRETCHING FROM YUMA TO NORTON COUNTIES
THIS MORNING. WHILE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED,
STRONG WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, SMALL HAIL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE
STILL POTENTIAL HAZARDS AS THIS LINE MOVES TO SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS/ALONG I-70. THE PRIMARY RISK THROUGH THE MORNING WILL BE
FLASH FLOODING AS MOST OF THE CWA HAS RECEIVED ROUGHLY 1-6
INCHES OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO
MOVE OUT OF THE CWA CLOSER TO DAYLIGHT, WITH LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NOT EXPERIENCING
CONVECTION WHERE SOME CLEARING IN THE CLOUD DECK IS POSSIBLE.
MOVING THROUGH THE REST MORNING, THE LULL IN ACTIVITY WILL GIVE
WAY TO ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN
THE AREA.
RECENT GUIDANCE HAS LOWERED THE OVERALL RISK FOR WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF I-70 AND IN EASTERN COLORADO AS WE
PROGRESS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE SPC HAS MOST OF THE CWA IN
AT LEAST A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WHERE WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL, HEAVY
RAIN WILL AGAIN BE CONCERN WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP, THEREFORE
CONTINUING THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE ALREADY
SATURATED SOILS OF OUR AREA. STORM COVERAGE AND SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO BE HINDERED/AIDED BY CLOUD COVERAGE/CLEARING
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
BY TONIGHT, ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE, WITH BEST CHANCES PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA CLOSER TO NIGHTTIME. BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA OR DISSIPATED.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT WED JUN 24 2026
FRIDAY, OUR REGION IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION OUT OF A MOSTLY ZONAL
PATTERN INTO A WEAK RIDGING PATTERN WITH AN INCOMING TROUGH WEST OF
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE 70S TO
80S WITH AROUND A 20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED DUE TO
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN, BUT ISOLATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE HOT AND DRY
WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE 90S TO 100S. RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH)
VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TEENS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE RECENT
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA), THIS
LESSENS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.
CONDITIONS COOL SLIGHTLY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90S FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS
AFTER TUESDAY AS AN INCOMING TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH OUR
REGION. LOW CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFICS SINCE THIS IS THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1110 AM MDT THU JUN 25 2026
MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AT BOTH
KGLD AND KMCK WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS, WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. TONIGHT, CEILINGS WILL LOWER
TO IFR WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF
VLIFR CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO LOW
CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IN FOG. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF
FAIRLY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, BUT THE LOW CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MDT THU JUN 25 2026
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, UP TO AN ESTIMATED 6 INCHES OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN ACROSS THE CWA. THIS CREATED A FLASH FLOODING THREAT IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS, AND IS NOW AN AREAL FLOODING THREAT. AS OF 16Z,
WE HAVE RECEIVED MULTIPLE REPORTS OF FLOODED ROADWAYS IN SOUTHERN
LOGAN COUNTY.
WE ARE EXPECTING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE THROUGH OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION PROLONGS THE
FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TOTALS BY TOMORROW MORNING MAY BE AS
MUCH AS 1-2 INCHES. THIS PRECIPITATION MAY FALL OVER LOCATIONS THAT
HAVE RECEIVED 1-6+ INCHES OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6Z FOR THIS THREAT. THE WORST OF THE
RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN, AND THE REMAINING WATCH IS TO ENSURE
EVERYONE IS PREPARED FOR ANY LINGERING COMPOUNDING FLOODING
THREATS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-
027>029-041-042.
CO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COZ090-091.
NE...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...024
HYDROLOGY...CA
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