441
FXUS63 KGLD 252304
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
504 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IN COLORADO AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 96 IN KANSAS. FLOODING
REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT FROM ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS
DUE TO SATURATED SOILS.
- A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN COLORADO AND PERHAPS ADJACENT AREAS OF KANSAS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
- HOT, DRY AND WINDY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2026
A VERY MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.3 TO 1.7 INCHES. EASTERLY FLOW
AROUND A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO CONTINUES TO ADVECT
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE LIMITED INSTABILITY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 TO NEAR ZERO. HOWEVER, SOUTH OF I-70 LATEST
MESOANALYSIS FROM SPC SHOWS UP TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE IN FAR
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA, BUT THAT BEGINS TO DECREASE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS BACK TO NORTHEAST AND THE COOLER
AND MORE STABLE AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THOSE AREAS AS WELL.
CAMS SHOW CONVECTION INITIATING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE IN WYOMING AND COLORADO WITH ANOTHER SUBTLE WAVE IN THE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. STORMS MAKE SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE
PLAINS BEFORE WEAKENING AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE STABLE AIR IN OUR
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHER STORMS WILL DEVELOP
IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT, BUT MOVE
EAST AND NOT REACH THE AREA. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY
SEVERE STORM, MAINLY IN WESTERN OR SOUTHERN AREAS, BUT OVERALL
THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT AND SATURATED SOILS, AT LEAST SOME FLOODING THREAT
REMAINS EVEN FROM WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEY DEVELOP, SO
PLAN ON KEEPING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY
MORNING, POSSIBLY DENSE AT TIMES.
AFTER MORNING FOG AND CLOUDS DISSIPATE, SHOULD SEE MORE SUN
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH THE REFS MEAN SHOWING 500-1000
J/KG OF SBCAPE, BUT DECREASING TO LESS THAN 500 J/KG IN KANSAS
AND NEBRASKA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AROUND 40 KTS. AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN WILL RESULT IN RISING HEIGHTS
UPSTREAM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CAMS INITIATE CONVECTION ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE WITH AN EMBEDDED WEAK WAVE IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW. SCATTERED STORMS MIGRATE EAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING THROUGH THE INSTABILITY AXIS. THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO MAKING IT AS FAR EAST AS
THE KANSAS BORDER, WITH AN ACCOMPANYING RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS, BEFORE WEAKENING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS INTO
KANSAS AND NEBRASKA.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN
CONSOLIDATES INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW WHICH SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STRENGTHENS AND MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS LEAVES THE CENTRAL
PLAINS UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW BOTH ALOFT, AND INCREASINGLY AT THE
SURFACE. BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DRY OUT THE LOW
LEVELS AND WITH NO DISCERNIBLE FORCING PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 90S ON SATURDAY AND
90S TO LOWER 100S ON SUNDAY. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
MINIMUMS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS IN COLORADO AND ADJACENT
KANSAS COUNTIES ON SATURDAY, AND AS FAR EAST AS HIGHWAY 25 ON
SUNDAY, AND COMBINED WITH THE WINDS WILL RESULT IN FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. FUELS WILL BE THE BIG QUESTION WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL
THAT HAS OCCURRED THE PAST WEEK IN MUCH OF THE REGION AND MAY
END UP MITIGATING THE EXPECTED HOT, DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS
FROM A FIRE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 149 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS SHAPING UP TO BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR OUR
COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA). PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS
FORECAST TO BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WARM TEMPERATURES AND A WINDY WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST IN THE 90S THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT THE AFTERNOONS TO
BE WINDY WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA WILL BE ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF WIND GUSTS. EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES WILL BRING AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION CHANCES EACH DAY, BUT
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) ARE ONLY AROUND 25% EACH
AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE THE BIG QUESTION FOR NEXT WEEK.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG AFTERNOON WINDS.
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX (GFDI) VALUES ARE FORECAST IN THE HIGH
TO EXTREME CATEGORY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE RECENT SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL,
FUELS MAY REMAIN UNRECEPTIVE, WHICH COULD MITIGATE THE OVERALL FIRE
WEATHER THREAT DESPITE THE HOT, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 503 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2026
MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING AT BOTH
KGLD AND KMCK WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS, WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LATE TONIGHT, CEILINGS WILL
LOWER TO IFR WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD
OF VLIFR CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO LOW
CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IN FOG. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF
FAIRLY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, BUT THE LOW CEILINGS MAY PERSIST
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MDT THU JUN 25 2026
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, UP TO AN ESTIMATED 6 INCHES OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN ACROSS THE CWA. THIS CREATED A FLASH FLOODING THREAT IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS, AND IS NOW AN AREAL FLOODING THREAT. AS OF 16Z,
WE HAVE RECEIVED MULTIPLE REPORTS OF FLOODED ROADWAYS IN SOUTHERN
LOGAN COUNTY.
WE ARE EXPECTING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE THROUGH OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION PROLONGS THE
FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TOTALS BY TOMORROW MORNING MAY BE AS
MUCH AS 1-2 INCHES. THIS PRECIPITATION MAY FALL OVER LOCATIONS THAT
HAVE RECEIVED 1-6+ INCHES OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6Z FOR THIS THREAT. THE WORST OF THE
RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN, AND THE REMAINING WATCH IS TO ENSURE
EVERYONE IS PREPARED FOR ANY LINGERING COMPOUNDING FLOODING
THREATS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ090-091.
NE...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR
NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...024
HYDROLOGY...CA
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