212
FXUS63 KGLD 260554
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1154 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN COLORADO AND PERHAPS ADJACENT AREAS OF KANSAS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
- HOT, DRY AND WINDY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1151 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2026
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS HAVE MOSTLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH
A LARGE SURFACE LOW OVER THE PANHANDLES REGION. SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE ALSO MOVING THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO, BUT WILL LIKELY
FALL APART EARLY IN THE NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE AREA IN A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT. WITH THE CLOUD COVER LINGERING, TEMPERATURES SHOULD
GENERALLY STAY IN THE 60S EVEN WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS.
FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND ALREADY HAS BEEN TRYING TO DO SO IN THE
LATE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER, THE INSULATION FROM THE CLOUD COVER
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MIST AND/OR PATCHY FOG INSTEAD OF DENSE FOG FOR
THE MOST PART. THERE MIGHT STILL BE A FEW DENSE PATCHES THAT DEVELOP
THOUGH.
THE CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING
HOURS, ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BUT AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN CONUS AND HELPS BRING SOME RIDGING
INTO THE AREA, THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD GIVE WAY TO CLEARER SKIES.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE AREA AS LONG AS THE
CLOUDS GIVE WAY. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES MAY CAP IN THE 70S. WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO GET A BIT BREEZIER FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS WEST OF THE AREA AGAIN. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO SUSTAIN AROUND 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. WINDS
SHOULD BE HIGHEST IN EASTERN COLORADO.
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AROUND 5-7 PM, SHOWERS
AND STORMS THAT ARE FORECAST TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT RANGE SHOULD
PUSH INTO EASTERN COLORADO. THEY ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT COULD SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH MUCAPE
AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE, MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8
C/KM, AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 35-40 KTS. BUT THE OVERALL THOUGHT
IS THAT THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FORCING
AND BETTER INSTABILITY, LEADING THEM TO WEAKEN AS THEY TRY TO PUSH
INTO THE AREA. WITH THIS, THE CURRENT THOUGHT IS THAT THERE MAY BE
ONE MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH A FEW
ACCOMPANYING WEAKER SHOWERS/STORMS. THE REST OF THE AREA WOULD THEN
SEE LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY AS LONG AS AN MCS DOESN'T DEVELOP AND
BRING A CLUSTER THROUGH THE AREA. IF THIS OCCURS, THERE WOULD ALSO
BE A THREAT FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 60-75 MPH, FAVORING SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EVEN IF THE CLUSTER FORMS, THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACCUMULATING ABOVE 2" IS LOW, SO HAVE NOT ELECTED FOR A FLOOD WATCH
AT THIS TIME. THE NIGHTTIME HOURS ARE THEN FORECAST TO SEE A MIXTURE
OF CLOUDS AND CLEAR SKIES. FOG COULD FORM AGAIN AS LONG AS
PRECIPITATION ISN'T LINGERING IN THE AREA.
SATURDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BROADEN OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AND PUSH THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THIS IS FORECAST TO
GIVE THE AREA SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION. WITH THIS TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE 90S AND MAYBE
EVEN THE 100S FOR THOSE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25-40 MPH AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES. WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN WITH THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW, THIS WOULD CAUSE CONCERN FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER, THE RECENT RAIN HAVE BEEN REPORTED TO CAUSE SOME GREEN UP
AND LOWER THE OVERALL FIRE HAZARD IN THE AREA. STILL, BE CAREFUL AS
INCREASED FIRE DANGER MAY CAUSE FIRES TO BE PROBLEMATIC. A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS WITH A DRYLINE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AROUND HIGHWAY
27 OR HIGHWAY 25. MOST OF THEM WOULD BE SUB-SEVERE, BUT THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE FOR STRONG SEVERE STORMS AS SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CAP
WOULD BE IN PLACE. IF THE CAP BREAKS, THEN THE ENVIRONMENT COULD
HAVE AROUND 3000-5000 J/KG OF CAPE WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 40-
50KTS. THIS WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA IF THESE STRONG STORMS FORM. CURRENTLY THE CHANCE FOR THIS
LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN 5%.
SUNDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ROTATE A BIT IN PLACE AND
KEEP THE SURFACE LOW IN PLACE. THIS WOULD GIVE SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO
SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEARING 100 AND BREEZY WINDS FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE SPREAD CHARTS SHOW THAT THE UPPER
LOW AND SURFACE LOW MAY PUSH MORE TO THE EAST. IN THIS CASE, THE
DRIER AND WARM AIR WOULD PUSH INTO MORE OF THE AREA. THIS WOULD ALSO
ELIMINATE CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THE AREA, THOUGH EVEN THE MORE
WESTERLY SCENARIO WOULD ONLY HAVE A 5-10% CHANCE THAT STORMS FORM AS
MORE DRY AIR PUSHES IN EITHER WAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 149 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS SHAPING UP TO BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR OUR
COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA). PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS
FORECAST TO BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WARM TEMPERATURES AND A WINDY WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST IN THE 90S THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT THE AFTERNOONS TO
BE WINDY WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA WILL BE ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF WIND GUSTS. EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES WILL BRING AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION CHANCES EACH DAY, BUT
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) ARE ONLY AROUND 25% EACH
AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE THE BIG QUESTION FOR NEXT WEEK.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG AFTERNOON WINDS.
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX (GFDI) VALUES ARE FORECAST IN THE HIGH
TO EXTREME CATEGORY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE RECENT SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL,
FUELS MAY REMAIN UNRECEPTIVE, WHICH COULD MITIGATE THE OVERALL FIRE
WEATHER THREAT DESPITE THE HOT, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1151 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2026
FOR KGLD & KMCK... IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH ABOUT
15-18Z AS CEILING SHAVE LOWER TO 1500FT OR LESS. CEILINGS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH BOTH SITES LIKELY TO
REACH 200-400FT AT TIME THROUGH THE FIRST 6 HOURS. MIST AND FOG
ARE ALSO MOVING THROUGH THE AREA, WITH VISIBILITY GENERALLY
AROUND 1-3SM. AFTER 15Z, CONDITIONS SHOULD STEADILY IMPROVE AND
BECOME VFR BY 18-21Z. THE OTHER THING TO WATCH FOR IS A LESS
THAN 10% CHANCE FOR STORMS BETWEEN 00-06Z THAT WOULD MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST IF THEY CAN MAKE IT.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ090-091.
NE...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR
NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...KAK
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