580
FXUS63 KGLD 262237
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
437 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IN COLORADO AND PERHAPS ADJACENT AREAS OF KANSAS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
- HOT, DRY AND BREEZY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2026
CLEARING HAS OCCURRED IN EASTERN COLORADO AND ONE COLUMN OF
COUNTIES INTO KANSAS AND NEBRASKA AS OF 18Z. SOME FURTHER
CLEARING MAY OCCUR A BIT FURTHER EAST, BUT IT WILL BE SLOW TO
OCCUR WITH A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND. IN THE CLEAR
AREAS, VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH 2000-3000 J/KG
OF SBCAPE EXPECTED AND POCKETS OF UP TO 5000 J/KG SUGGESTED BY
THE MODELS IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN
THOSE AREAS IS FORECAST TO REACH 35 KTS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF A DIGGING TROUGH IN THE GREAT
BASIN ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PROVIDING SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. CAMS SHOW CONVECTIVE INITIATION
OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE 20-22Z THEN MIGRATING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND REACHING THE KANSAS BORDER AREA 00-01Z, THEN
CONTINUING INTO AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN NORTHWEST
KANSAS THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. INITIAL DISCRETE CELLS IN COLORADO
WILL LIKELY BE SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK OF LARGE TO VERY LARGE
HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO, THEN
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY A WIND THREAT THIS EVENING AS THEY MOVE
INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AFTER PEAK HEATING.
OVERNIGHT, PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN IN NORTHWEST KANSAS
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, PERSISTING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE DISSIPATING. A WARM FRONT/DRY LINE DRAPED ALONG THE
KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER AREA IN THE MORNING WILL TRY TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY, BUT STALL OUT SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN HIGHWAYS 27 AND 25 BY THE AFTERNOON. CAMS INITIATE
CONVECTION ALONG THE DRY LINE IN NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT, BUT IT APPEARS TO BE TOO CAPPED FURTHER SOUTH IN KANSAS
AND NEBRASKA. SOME OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN COLORADO COULD
CLIP THE FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34, WITH RIGHT MOVER MOTION
TAKING THEM EAST. ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS ALONG/EAST OF THE DRY LINE WITH OVER 3000 J/KG OF
SBCAPE OF 50 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE
ISOLATED, HOWEVER, AND ANY THREAT SHOULD QUICKLY BE OUT OF THE
AREA BY 03Z. OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE HOT, DRY AND BREEZY,
PARTICULARLY WEST OF THE DRY LINE WHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
GUST BETWEEN 30-40 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE 90S. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED DUE TO
UNFAVORABLE FUELS FROM RECENT RAIN.
THE DRY LINE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ON SUNDAY WITH JUST ABOUT
THE ENTIRE AREA ON THE HOT, DRY AND BREEZY SIDE. NOT EXPECTING
ANY CONVECTION WITH THE MAIN UPPER FLOW DISPLACED WEST IN
COLORADO AWAY FROM THE DRY LINE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
90S ONCE AGAIN WITH A FEW TRIPLE DIGITS POSSIBLE. FUELS WILL
CONTINUE TO CURE BUT NOT EXPECTING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH SUNDAY. NOT SEEING MUCH CHANGE IN THE GENERAL PATTERN ON
MONDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN MONTANA WITH A
POTENT VORTICITY LOBE ROTATING FROM NORTHERN COLORADO IN THE
MORNING TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER SOUTH,
HOT, DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. FIRE WEATHER MAY BECOME
MORE OF A CONCERN AFTER FUELS HAVE HAD SEVERAL DAYS TO DRY OUT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS SHAPING UP TO BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR OUR
COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA). PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS
FORECAST TO BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WARM TEMPERATURES AND A WINDY WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST IN THE 90S WITH SOME AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA SEEING
LOW 100S THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT THE AFTERNOONS TO BE WINDY WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WILL
BE ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF WIND GUSTS. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL BRING
AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION CHANCES EACH DAY, BUT PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION (POPS) ARE ONLY AROUND 25% EACH AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE THE BIG QUESTION FOR NEXT WEEK.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG AFTERNOON WINDS.
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX (GFDI) VALUES ARE FORECAST IN THE HIGH
TO EXTREME CATEGORY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE RECENT SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL,
FUELS MAY REMAIN UNRECEPTIVE, WHICH COULD MITIGATE THE OVERALL FIRE
WEATHER THREAT DESPITE THE HOT, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS. WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH HOW MUCH FUELS DRY OUT OVER THE WEEKEND TO BETTER
DETERMINE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 433 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2026
AT KGLD... WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE A LOW PROBABILITY
(AROUND 20%) OF IMPACTING KGLD BETWEEN 00-04Z THIS EVENING WITH
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. OTHERWISE, VFR EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
AT KMCK... LOW CEILINGS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES. A RETURN TO VFR IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...024
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