915
FXUS63 KGLD 271713
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1113 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT, DRY AND BREEZY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- LOW CHANCE FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TODAY, FAVORING
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2026
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE COME TO AN END AS THE MCS DRIVING THE
PRECIPITATION IS WELL EAST OF THE AREA NOW. FOR NW KANSAS AND SW
NEBRASKA, LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT FOG AND
MIST. THE FOG MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES, THOUGH LIKELY INHIBITED BY THE
HIGHER CLOUD COVER. THIS LOOKS TO PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. AS LONG AS THE MOISTURE
LINGERS, TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY IN THE 60S. OTHERWISE,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 50S, ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN
COLORADO.
TODAY, THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO PUSH MORE INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND TAKE SHAPE. AS IT DOES SO, THE SURFACE LOW THAT HAS BEEN
TO THE WEST IS FORECAST TO START PUSHING EAST INTO THE PLAINS. THIS
SHOULD CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SHIFT TO MORE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST, BRINGING IN DRIER AIR AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. WITH THE
DRIER AIR COMING IN AND CLEARING OUT THE CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM INTO THE 90S WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. AS ALLUDED TO,
DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO BEGIN DROPPING AS A DRYLINE PUSHES
INTO THE AREA. THOSE WEST OF HIGHWAY 27 COULD SEE DEWPOINTS DROP
INTO THE 40S WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA REMAINS IN THE 60S. ALSO,
WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PLAINS, THE PRESSURE AND HEIGHT
GRADIENTS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE THE WINDS. SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH 10 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. GENERALLY, THIS WOULD
LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, BUT THE RECENT RAINFALL AS
LOWERED HOW RECEPTIVE FUELS IN THE AREA ARE TO BURNING.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, A FEW STORMS ARE FORECAST TO TRY
AND FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE AND/OR HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST. MOST
OF THE AREA IS FORECAST TO BE UNDER A CAP THAT INHIBITS MOST STORM
DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENANCE. THIS IS FORECAST TO CAUSE THE AREA TO
BE SCRAPPED BY A FEW MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE
SPREAD CHARTS SHOW VARYING POSITIONS FOR THE LOW AND UPPER LOW.
MAYBE A SLIGHT SHIFT COULD HELP LEAD TO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS WOULD BE BAD THOUGH AS THE ENVIRONMENT
IS FORECAST TO HAVE MUCAPE AROUND 3000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR
AROUND 45 KTS, SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS AND VERY LARGE HAIL. OVERALL,
THE CHANCE REMAINS 5% OR LESS, BUT KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR UPDATES.
TONIGHT, THE DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE PUSHING IN WITH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA, SKIES
SHOULD BE CLEAR. EASTERN PORTIONS ON THE OTHER HAND MAY STILL SEE
SOME LOW CLOUD COVER AND FOG DEVELOP DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH THE DRY
AIR PUSHES IN. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO ONLY COOL
INTO THE 60S AND 70S WITH THE DOWNSLOPING/WARMING COMPONENT OF THE
WINDS.
SUNDAY, THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST
WHILE LARGELY SPINNING IN PLACE. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AGAIN SHOWS A
FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR NORTH/EAST THE UPPER LOW
DEEPENS. THIS WILL AFFECT HOW CLOSE THE LOW GETS TO THE AREA AND HOW
STRONG THE WINDS GET. THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 15-35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. THIS
MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY LOWER IF THE LOW CENTER ENDS UP MORE OVER THE
AREA. DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE AREA,
LOWERING DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA AND EFFECTIVELY BRING OUR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NEAR ZERO. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO NEAR
100 WITH DRIER AIR AND CLEAR SKIES.
MONDAY, THE UPPER PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE AS TROUGHING REMAINS
IN PLACE WHILE THE UPPER LOW SHIFT NORTH. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW NORTH AS WELL AND LOWER THE WINDS A BIT.
SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 10-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. SHORT
OF THE LOWER WINDS, NOT MUCH ELSE IS FORECAST TO CHANGE.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN LOW WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE
AND TEMPERATURES AGAIN WARM TO NEAR 100.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS SHAPING UP TO BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR OUR
COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA). PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS
FORECAST TO BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WARM TEMPERATURES AND A WINDY WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST IN THE 90S WITH SOME AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA SEEING
LOW 100S THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT THE AFTERNOONS TO BE WINDY WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WILL
BE ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF WIND GUSTS. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL BRING
AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION CHANCES EACH DAY, BUT PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION (POPS) ARE ONLY AROUND 25% EACH AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE THE BIG QUESTION FOR NEXT WEEK.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG AFTERNOON WINDS.
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX (GFDI) VALUES ARE FORECAST IN THE HIGH
TO EXTREME CATEGORY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE RECENT SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL,
FUELS MAY REMAIN UNRECEPTIVE, WHICH COULD MITIGATE THE OVERALL FIRE
WEATHER THREAT DESPITE THE HOT, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS. WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH HOW MUCH FUELS DRY OUT OVER THE WEEKEND TO BETTER
DETERMINE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2026
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25
KTS AT TIMES WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...024
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