792
FXUS63 KGLD 271818
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1218 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT, DRY AND BREEZY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- LOW CHANCE FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TODAY, FAVORING
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
- LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND SEVERE RISK FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2026
DRY LINE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHARPEN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN COLORADO AND DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE 30S
WHILE FURTHER EAST, SOUTHEAST WINDS PERSIST WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE 60S. CAMS SUGGEST ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ON THE
DRY LINE IN NORTHEAST COLORADO NEAR JULESBURG AS A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVES THROUGH. THE
ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE DRY LINE WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE WITH
3000-4000 J/KG OF SBCAPE ALONG WITH 40-50 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR.
WHILE THE MEAN FLOW WILL GENERALLY TAKE STORMS NORTHEAST, ANY
SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS WILL MOVE MORE EASTERLY, POTENTIALLY
INTO THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA (NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 34). STORM COVERAGE WILL BE RELATIVELY SPARSE WITH THE
WEAK FORCING, BUT CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A RISK FOR LARGE
HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO IF A STORM
MANAGES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE RISK SHOULD END FAIRLY EARLY
AT AROUND 03Z.
ON SUNDAY, THE DRY LINE SETS UP EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 IN THE
AFTERNOON. DESPITE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR, FORCING
APPEARS TO BE LACKING WITH THE MAIN FLOW ALOFT DISPLACED TO THE
NORTHWEST. WITH A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT ACROSS THE AREA
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 90S WITH A FEW SPOTS POTENTIALLY
IN TRIPLE DIGITS.
MONDAY, THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE
GREAT BASIN, BUT A SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT OUT ACROSS NORTHERN
COLORADO AND WYOMING IN THE AFTERNOON. THE DRY LINE REMAINS
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS, POSSIBLY RETREATING TO THE WEST JUST A
BIT. 3-KM NAM DOES INITIATE CONVECTION ON THE DRY LINE IN THE
AFTERNOON, BUT OTHER CAMS DO NOT. INSTABILITY EAST OF THE DRY
LINE WOULD STILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SOME SEVERE THREAT,
BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ONLY AROUND 20-30 KTS. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW AT THIS TIME THAT CONVECTION WILL INITIATE DUE TO WEAK
FORCING AND CAPPING CIN FORECAST AT -50 TO -100 J/KG ALONG AND
EAST OF THE DRY LINE. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S.
TUESDAY PRESENTS A SIMILAR SCENARIO. RRFS SUGGESTS THE DRY LINE
WILL RETREAT AS FAR WEST AS THE COLORADO AND KANSAS BORDER AREA
BY THE AFTERNOON WITH THE NBM ALSO SHOWING SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
HIGHER DEW POINTS. RRFS SHOWS MORE OF PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE IN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND INITIATES CONVECTION IN THE AREA
AFTER 21Z. THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF A SEVERE
THREAT WITH UP TO 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND 40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR, STRONGEST IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. STILL A FEW
DAYS OUT AND UNSURE HOW THE OTHER CAMS WILL HANDLE IT, BUT THERE
IS AT LEAST SOME HINTS OF A SEVERE RISK ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE IN THE 90S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS SHAPING UP TO BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR OUR
COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA). PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS
FORECAST TO BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WARM TEMPERATURES AND A WINDY WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST IN THE 90S WITH SOME AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA SEEING
LOW 100S THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT THE AFTERNOONS TO BE WINDY WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WILL
BE ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF WIND GUSTS. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL BRING
AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION CHANCES EACH DAY, BUT PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION (POPS) ARE ONLY AROUND 25% EACH AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE THE BIG QUESTION FOR NEXT WEEK.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG AFTERNOON WINDS.
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX (GFDI) VALUES ARE FORECAST IN THE HIGH
TO EXTREME CATEGORY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE RECENT SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL,
FUELS MAY REMAIN UNRECEPTIVE, WHICH COULD MITIGATE THE OVERALL FIRE
WEATHER THREAT DESPITE THE HOT, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS. WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH HOW MUCH FUELS DRY OUT OVER THE WEEKEND TO BETTER
DETERMINE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2026
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25
KTS AT TIMES WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...024
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