359
FXUS63 KGLD 280544
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1144 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT, DRY AND BREEZY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND SEVERE RISK FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2026
DRY LINE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHARPEN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN COLORADO AND DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE 30S
WHILE FURTHER EAST, SOUTHEAST WINDS PERSIST WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE 60S. CAMS SUGGEST ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ON THE
DRY LINE IN NORTHEAST COLORADO NEAR JULESBURG AS A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVES THROUGH. THE
ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE DRY LINE WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE WITH
3000-4000 J/KG OF SBCAPE ALONG WITH 40-50 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR.
WHILE THE MEAN FLOW WILL GENERALLY TAKE STORMS NORTHEAST, ANY
SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS WILL MOVE MORE EASTERLY, POTENTIALLY
INTO THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA (NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 34). STORM COVERAGE WILL BE RELATIVELY SPARSE WITH THE
WEAK FORCING, BUT CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A RISK FOR LARGE
HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO IF A STORM
MANAGES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE RISK SHOULD END FAIRLY EARLY
AT AROUND 03Z.
ON SUNDAY, THE DRY LINE SETS UP EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 IN THE
AFTERNOON. DESPITE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR, FORCING
APPEARS TO BE LACKING WITH THE MAIN FLOW ALOFT DISPLACED TO THE
NORTHWEST. WITH A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT ACROSS THE AREA
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 90S WITH A FEW SPOTS POTENTIALLY
IN TRIPLE DIGITS.
MONDAY, THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE
GREAT BASIN, BUT A SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT OUT ACROSS NORTHERN
COLORADO AND WYOMING IN THE AFTERNOON. THE DRY LINE REMAINS
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS, POSSIBLY RETREATING TO THE WEST JUST A
BIT. 3-KM NAM DOES INITIATE CONVECTION ON THE DRY LINE IN THE
AFTERNOON, BUT OTHER CAMS DO NOT. INSTABILITY EAST OF THE DRY
LINE WOULD STILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SOME SEVERE THREAT,
BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ONLY AROUND 20-30 KTS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
AT THIS TIME THAT CONVECTION WILL INITIATE DUE TO WEAK FORCING
AND CAPPING CIN FORECAST AT -50 TO -100 J/KG ALONG AND EAST OF
THE DRY LINE. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
TUESDAY PRESENTS A SIMILAR SCENARIO. RRFS SUGGESTS THE DRY LINE
WILL RETREAT AS FAR WEST AS THE COLORADO AND KANSAS BORDER AREA
BY THE AFTERNOON WITH THE NBM ALSO SHOWING SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
HIGHER DEW POINTS. RRFS SHOWS MORE OF PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE IN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND INITIATES CONVECTION IN THE AREA
AFTER 21Z. THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF A SEVERE
THREAT WITH UP TO 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND 40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR, STRONGEST IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. STILL A FEW
DAYS OUT AND UNSURE HOW THE OTHER CAMS WILL HANDLE IT, BUT THERE
IS AT LEAST SOME HINTS OF A SEVERE RISK ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE IN THE 90S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2026
HOT, DRY, AND WINDY WEATHER PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. WEDNESDAY, OUR REGION IS FORECAST TO BE IN A
SOUTHWEST UPPER- LEVEL FLOW WITH A JET STREAK OVERHEAD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE 90S FOR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
(CWA). EXPECT A WINDY WEDNESDAY FOR OUR COLORADO COUNTIES WITH
WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. A SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL BRING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) ARE ONLY AROUND 15% FOR THE
NORTHEAST CWA. INSTABILITY IS WEAK, SO ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL
LIKELY BE ISOLATED AND SUB-SEVERE WITH SMALL HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE HOT, DRY,
AND WINDY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO 100S. WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
FORECAST ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA.
WHILE THE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FIRE
WEATHER, HOW RECEPTIVE FUELS WILL BE IS THE BIG QUESTION.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG AFTERNOON WINDS. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
INDEX (GFDI) VALUES ARE FORECAST IN THE HIGH TO EXTREME
CATEGORY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE RECENT SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL, FUELS
MAY REMAIN UNRECEPTIVE, WHICH COULD MITIGATE THE OVERALL FIRE
WEATHER THREAT DESPITE THE HOT, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS. WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW MUCH FUELS DRY OUT OVER THE WEEKEND TO
BETTER DETERMINE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1143 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2026
GLD: CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. KGLD VELOCITY DATA AT 05Z THIS EVENING INDICATES A ~55
KNOT SSW LOW-LEVEL JET AT ~800 FT AGL. EXPECT LLWS FOR SEVERAL
HOURS, UNTIL 08-10Z, WHEN GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL VEER TO THE W AND DECREASE IN MAGNITUDE. 10-15 KNOT S TO
SSW SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W ~08Z AND PERSIST THROUGH
MID TO LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SW AND INCREASE TO
15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON (~18Z). SW
WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30-35
KNOTS DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON (~22Z) AND PERSIST UNTIL
SUNSET (~02Z MON), AT WHICH POINT WINDS WILL BACK TO THE S AND
DECREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS. A STRENGTHENING SSW TO SW NOCTURNAL
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE LLWS DURING THE LATE EVENING, NEAR
THE END OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
MCK: CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. EXPECT 45-50 KNOT SSW TO SW LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR
SEVERAL HOURS, UNTIL 09-11Z, WHEN GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT LOW-
LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO THE W AND DECREASE IN MAGNITUDE. 8-13
KNOT SE TO SSE SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SW OR WSW ~09Z
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. WINDS WILL
BACK TO THE SSW AND INCREASE TO 12-17 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KNOTS DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON AND PERSIST UNTIL SUNSET (~02Z
MON), AT WHICH POINT WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SE AND DECREASE TO
8-13 KNOTS. A STRENGTHENING SSW TO SW NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL PRODUCE LLWS DURING THE LATE EVENING, NEAR THE END OF THE
06Z TAF PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...VINCENT
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