590
FXUS63 KGLD 140506
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1106 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- LOW STORM CHANCES MAY RETURN TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1215 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2026
A STAGNANT UPPER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WITH A REX BLOCK OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THERE IS AN
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER
TEXAS. THE END RESULT WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE FROM WHAT THE AREA
HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLY HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN MISSOURI AND THE LEE
TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO. THE MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALSO
KEEP DEW POINTS SOMEWHAT HIGH IN THE 50S AND 60S, BUT ALSO KEEP
ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT BAY DUE TO THE HIGHER HUMIDITY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2026
THE UPPER PATTERN DOES UNDERGO A SUBTLE SHIFT IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS GETS SHUNTED TO
THE SOUTHEAST, ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER ONE THAT
STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND. THE UPPER
LOW OVER TEXAS ALSO SHIFTS WESTWARD AND IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO/NORTHERN MEXICO BY SUNDAY. SO THE REX BLOCK CONTINUES
BUT WILL SHIFT FURTHER WEST. THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAINS
DISPLACED FROM THE MAIN STORM TRACK WELL TO THE NORTH OVER THE
RIDGE, BUT MAY START TO SEE SOME STORMS DRIFT OFF THE FRONT
RANGE BY THE WEEKEND WITH THE REORIENTATION OF THE UPPER
PATTERN. CHANCES STILL LOOK TO BE ON THE LOW END AS INITIATION
WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND STORMS WILL FADE AS THEY GET
FURTHER EAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. SEVERE
THREAT, IF ANY, WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO GUSTY WINDS AND
BLOWING DUST WITH THE LACK OF SHEAR AND WEAK FORCING.
TEMPERATURES SHOW A SLOW, GRADUAL INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD,
AND BY SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 90S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1102 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2026
WINDS HAVE BEEN A BIT WEAKER THAN ANTICIPATED SO LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS A BIT MORE OF A CONCERN FOR EACH TERMINAL WITH A LONGER
DURATION AT GLD AS THE LOW LEVEL JET IS A BIT MORE ORIENTED
ALONG THE CO/KS LINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW
LEVEL JET SHOULD WANE AT MCK AROUND 09Z OR SO. IF WINDS CAN
INCREASE SOME TO AROUND 15 KNOTS THEN LLWS WOULD BE LESS OF A
CONCERN. WINDS FROM THE LATE MORNING ON ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
AGAIN TO AROUND 15 KNOTS SUSTAINED. MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE SOME THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH A VERY
SMALL POTENTIAL FOR POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS. CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW FOR ANY DIRECT IMPACTS TO EITHER TERMINAL TO INCLUDE IN
THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...TRIGG
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