831
FXUS63 KGLD 140606
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1206 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- LOW STORM CHANCES MAY RETURN TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1204 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2026
CURRENT RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST WHICH
HAS SLIGHTLY EXPANDED WESTWARD AND A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FRONT
RANGE IS GOING TO CONTINUE TO PINCH THE FORECAST AREA IN A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE NIGHT. A DEVELOPING 30-40 KNOT 850MB
JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ALONG AND WEST OF THE
KANSAS/COLORADO STATE LINE. SOME SUBTLE 1 HOUR PRESSURE RISES
REMAINS SEEN ON THE 00Z RAP AND NAM WHICH SUGGESTS TO ME THAT
BREEZY WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH ARE FORECAST ALONG WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT SHOULD THE HOURLY PRESSURE RISES
OCCUR. DIFFERING FROM THE PAST FEW MORNINGS THERE IS LITTLE
CONCERN OF ANY FOG OR STRATUS POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO
HIGHER WINDS.
TUESDAY, RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH VERY LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. WINDS ALSO DO APPEAR TO BE VERY
SIMILAR AS WELL TO MONDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-20 MPH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE SIMILAR AS
WELL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S BUT COULD END UP BEING A LITTLE
BIT LOWER IF CLOUD COVER CAN INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS
THE DAY GOES ON A WESTWARD MOVING 500MB JET IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA PUTTING THE AREA IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS
JET, MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON SOME POTENTIAL SHOWER OR STORM
DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BUT A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POTENTIAL ACROSS EASTER AS THIS INTERACTS WITH
AN 850MB JET DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. WEAK CAPE AROUND 500-800 J/KG AND WEAK SHEAR
OF 10-15 KNOTS ARE SEEN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL IS VERY VERY SMALL BUT WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNBURSTS WITH STORMS IN THE
DISSIPATING PHASE WITH DCAPE AROUND 1200 J/KG. BREEZY WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 20 MPH SUSTAINED AND POTENTIALLY GUSTING 30-35 MPH.
THESE WINDS SHOULD HAVE A BETTER POTENTIAL OF MIXING DOWN AS
RAP AND HRRR DATA BOTH SUPPORT 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES SO HAVE
INCREASED WINDS A LITTLE BIT THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY, A SEMI PATTERN CHANGE IS FORECAST AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD HELP BRING A SLIGHT REPRIEVE
TO TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ARE POSSIBLE TO
OCCUR. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES. WINDS FOR THE DAY
APPEAR TO BE WEAKER FROM MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE 850MB JET DECREASING TO AROUND 10-20 KNOTS AND THE
CONTINUED LACK OF ANY 700MB JETS. AM NOTICING SOME VERY SUBTLE
700MB FRONTOGENESIS BANDS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING MET WHICH MAY BE
ENOUGH FOR A ROGUE STATIONARY SHOWER OR STORM TO DEVELOP. IF
THIS WERE TO OCCUR THEN SOME LIGHTING AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
DOWNPOUR WOULD BE THE MAIN IMPACTS AS PWATS ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 1.1-1.2 RANGE.
THURSDAY, LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EXPANDS BREAKS
DOWN OUR HIGH PRESSURE SOME, ALBEIT STILL PUSHING THE JET STREAM
EVEN FURTHER NORTH INTO CANADA. A SIGNAL FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES IS
BEING SEEN WITH THIS HOWEVER AS WINDS CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE A BIT
WEAKER ALONG WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOW 50S ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AND THE LOW 60S ACROSS EASTERN COUNTIES. IF
EFFICIENT ENOUGH MIXING CAN OCCUR THEN DEW POINTS COULD FALL A
LITTLE LOWER FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 25 BUT OVER
THE PAST FEW WEEKS GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN HANDLING THE MOIST AIR
MASS IN PLACE WELL AS DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN HIGHER THAN FORECAST
SO NOT COMPLETELY JUMPING ON BOARD WITH THE LOWER DEW POINT
SOLUTION AT THIS TIME QUITE YET. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW 90S BUT COULD SEE A SCENARIO WHERE THEY
RISE INTO THE MID 90S IF LOWER DEW POINTS CAN OCCUR.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2026
THE UPPER PATTERN DOES UNDERGO A SUBTLE SHIFT IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS GETS SHUNTED TO
THE SOUTHEAST, ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER ONE THAT
STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND. THE UPPER
LOW OVER TEXAS ALSO SHIFTS WESTWARD AND IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO/NORTHERN MEXICO BY SUNDAY. SO THE REX BLOCK CONTINUES
BUT WILL SHIFT FURTHER WEST. THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAINS
DISPLACED FROM THE MAIN STORM TRACK WELL TO THE NORTH OVER THE
RIDGE, BUT MAY START TO SEE SOME STORMS DRIFT OFF THE FRONT
RANGE BY THE WEEKEND WITH THE REORIENTATION OF THE UPPER
PATTERN. CHANCES STILL LOOK TO BE ON THE LOW END AS INITIATION
WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND STORMS WILL FADE AS THEY GET
FURTHER EAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. SEVERE
THREAT, IF ANY, WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO GUSTY WINDS AND
BLOWING DUST WITH THE LACK OF SHEAR AND WEAK FORCING.
TEMPERATURES SHOW A SLOW, GRADUAL INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD,
AND BY SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 90S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1102 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2026
WINDS HAVE BEEN A BIT WEAKER THAN ANTICIPATED SO LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS A BIT MORE OF A CONCERN FOR EACH TERMINAL WITH A LONGER
DURATION AT GLD AS THE LOW LEVEL JET IS A BIT MORE ORIENTED
ALONG THE CO/KS LINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW
LEVEL JET SHOULD WANE AT MCK AROUND 09Z OR SO. IF WINDS CAN
INCREASE SOME TO AROUND 15 KNOTS THEN LLWS WOULD BE LESS OF A
CONCERN. WINDS FROM THE LATE MORNING ON ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
AGAIN TO AROUND 15 KNOTS SUSTAINED. MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE SOME THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH A VERY
SMALL POTENTIAL FOR POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS. CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW FOR ANY DIRECT IMPACTS TO EITHER TERMINAL TO INCLUDE IN
THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...TRIGG
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