406
FXUS63 KGLD 141832
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1232 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
- ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN
KANSAS.
- HOTTER OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TRIPLE DIGITS POSSIBLE.
- STORM CHANCES MAY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2026
UPPER REX BLOCK CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A
RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CUT OFF LOW OVER
TEXAS. BOTH OF THOSE FEATURES DO SHIFT WITH TIME, BUT THE
PATTERN RESETS FURTHER WEST OVER THE ROCKIES BY FRIDAY. HOT AND
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. THE 12Z RFS DOES SHOW A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
IN CENTRAL KANSAS THAT COULD DRIFT INTO THE AREA, APPARENTLY
TIED TO A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW IN
TEXAS INTERACTING WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. SHEAR REMAINS VERY
WEAK, AS DOES THE FORCING, SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN A
FEW ISOLATED PULSE STORMS THAT QUICKLY FADE BY EARLY IN THE
EVENING, IF ANYTHING AT ALL. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE THROUGH
THE PERIOD, REACHING THE MID 90S BY FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2026
A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD, AND WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE PROXIMITY
TO THE RIDGE, WITH TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE. MODELS
HAVE BACKED OFF FROM WHAT WAS ALREADY LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THEY WERE SHOWING FOR THE WEEKEND. INSTEAD, WILL NEED TO WAIT
FOR THE RIDGE TO MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR DISTURBANCES MOVING
OVER THE TOP TO REACH THE AREA. THAT SHOULD START TO OCCUR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AS CONVECTION INITIATES IN COLORADO IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVES EAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THERE MAY BE A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IN THE MIX AS WELL WITH
EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS FORECAST BOTH DAYS. MODELS SHOW WEAK
INSTABILITY ON MONDAY WITH 20-30 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR, BUT
LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY ON TUESDAY, PERHAPS DUE TO CLOUD COVER
WITH THE EASTERLY WINDS. THIS SUGGESTS A LOW PROBABILITY OF
SEVERE STORMS, PRIMARILY ON MONDAY IF THE INSTABILITY CAN
MATERIALIZE. TEMPERATURES MAY COOL SLIGHTLY DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT, BUT THERE IS INCREASING SPREAD IN THE
ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY LEADING TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN JUST HOW MUCH COOLING MAY OCCUR.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1103 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2026
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...024
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