465
FXUS63 KGLD 150616
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1216 AM MDT WED JUL 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
- ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN
KANSAS.
- HOTTER OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TRIPLE DIGITS POSSIBLE.
- STORM CHANCES MAY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1214 AM MDT WED JUL 15 2026
CURRENT RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS NUDGING UP INTO THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WHICH IS FORECAST
TO KEEP WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH SUSTAINED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
LIGHTER WINDS AROUND 5-10 MPH FURTHER BACK TO THE EAST. MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL WITH THE
RIDGING REMAINING OVER THE AREA BUT SOME SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MAY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
SOME SUBTLE 850MB MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURS. HREF SUGGESTS THAT
SOME FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER AROUND SUNRISE BUT REFS AND SREF ARE NOT
FULLY BUYING IT. IF THE HREF IS ON TO SOMETHING IT LOOKS LIKE IT
WOULD BE DUE TO MOISTURE POOLING UP ALONG THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. CONFIDENCE IS ONLY AROUND
5-10% AT THIS TIME FOR ANY FOG/STRATUS TO DEVELOP. SURFACE TO
1KM MIXING RATION DIFFERENCES REMAIN FAIRLY LOW ACROSS NUMEROUS
MODELS WHICH SUGGESTS THAT DENSE FOG WOULD BE UNLIKELY, ANY FOG
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 2-6SM NATURE BEFORE QUICKLY ERODING AROUND
14Z AS MIXING RESUMES.
WEDNESDAY, A SEMI PATTERN CHANGE REMAINS FORECAST AS LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO MOVE SLIGHTLY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA;
ESPECIALLY THE EAST. IF CLOUDS CAN REMAIN THICK ENOUGH THEN
HIGHS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY REMAIN IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. IF THE CLOUDS END UP NOT BEING QUITE AS THICK THEN
TEMPERATURES WOULD REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO POSSIBLY MID 90S.
I'M LEANING TOWARDS THE COOLER AND THICKER CLOUD SCENARIO AT
THIS TIME DUE TO THE CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION AT 850MB ALONG
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 20C AND 925MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND 12-14C SO HAVE BUMPED HIGHS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. GUIDANCE
IS A LITTLE DRIER AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH SURFACE TO 30MB AGL DEW POINTS
FALLING INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS IS
BECOMING TO SEEM A BIT MORE REASONABLE TO ME TO START TRENDING
LOWER ON DEW POINTS AS ANY EVAPOTRANSPIRATION EFFECTS FROM THE
WET PREVIOUS WEEKS SHOULD START TO WANE DUE TO THE HOT, DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS WE HAVE HAD FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. DEW POINT
OBSERVATIONS THAT OCCURRED TUESDAY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO ALSO
SUGGESTS THIS WILL BE THE CASE AS DEW POINTS DID FALL A LITTLE
MORE THAN ANTICIPATED. WINDS FOR THE DAY ARE FORECAST TO BE A
LITTLE LESS BREEZY THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS AS THE 850MB JET
IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS IT WEAKENS TO AROUND 15-20 KNOTS. A
CONTINUED LACK OF A 700MB JET CONTINUES TO SUGGESTS THAT ANY
HIGHER GUSTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY SPORADIC. BREEZY WINDS SIMILAR TO
THE PAST FEW NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE AS ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH NOSES BACK IN AND INTERACTS
WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET.
THURSDAY, LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EXPANDS BREAKS
DOWN OUR HIGH PRESSURE SOME, ALBEIT STILL PUSHING THE JET STREAM
EVEN FURTHER NORTH INTO CANADA. A SIGNAL FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES IS
BEING SEEN WITH THIS HOWEVER AS WINDS CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE A BIT
WEAKER ALONG WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOW 50S ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AND THE LOW 60S ACROSS EASTERN COUNTIES.
INTENSIFYING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES ALSO SUPPORTS
THIS AS WELL. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
LOW 90S BUT COULD SEE A SCENARIO WHERE THEY RISE INTO THE MID
90S IF LOWER DEW POINTS CAN OCCUR. WINDS FOR THE DAY HOWEVER
LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND 10- 15 MPH DUE TO THE WEAK 850MB JET AND
THE SURFACE TROUGH PUSHING A BIT FURTHER EAST. SIMILAR TO WHAT
WAS SAID ON THE PRIOR DISCUSSION DO SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
WEAK AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORM POTENTIAL FOR THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SOME SUBTLE 700 AND 500MB VORTICITY ALONG/NEAR
THE KANSAS/COLORADO LINE AND ALSO FURTHER TO THE EAST WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH. ANYTHING NEAR THE STATE LINE WOULD BE RATHER
HIGH BASED WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF 20-30 DEGREES. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS WEAK MUCAPE IN PLACE ALONG WITH PWATS OF 0.8-0.9 WOULD
LEAD TO SOME CONCERN FOR A STRIKE OR TWO OF DRY LIGHTING.
FURTHER TO THE EAST PWATS DO LOOK TO BE QUITE A BIT HIGHER OF
1.1-1.2 INCHES ACCORDING TO THE 21Z RAP. LIGHTING A LOCALIZED
DOWNPOURS WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERNS AS WELL WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE VERY UNLIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY WITH
THE WEAK MID LEVEL WINDS AND MEAGER LAPSE RATES CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE. WITH MINIMAL SHEAR IN PLACE ANY STORMS
WOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND NEARLY STATIONARY WITH WITH NO MID
LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXPAND OVER THE ROCKIES ON FRIDAY AS A
594 DAM HEIGHT SETS UP OVER THE ROCKIES AND ANOTHER 594- 597
DAM SETS UP FROM NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.
FOR THE CWA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WARM THE AREA UP INTO THE
MID 90S. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN THE IS AS THE GEFS, ECMWF
AND CMC ENSEMBLES ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LOCATION. WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BE MUCH LIGHTER AS SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF
SURFACE FEATURES AND JETS ARE OVER THE AREA WITH WINDS REMAINING
AROUND 10 MPH. THIS SHOULD ALSO HELP TO KEEP THE OVERALL AIR
TEMPERATURE FROM RISING MUCH MORE THAN FORECAST DESPITE THE
FAVORED HEIGHTS FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WEAK WINDS WOULD
FAVOR LESSER MIXING OF WARMER AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2026
A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD, AND WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE PROXIMITY
TO THE RIDGE, WITH TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE. MODELS
HAVE BACKED OFF FROM WHAT WAS ALREADY LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THEY WERE SHOWING FOR THE WEEKEND. INSTEAD, WILL NEED TO WAIT
FOR THE RIDGE TO MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR DISTURBANCES MOVING
OVER THE TOP TO REACH THE AREA. THAT SHOULD START TO OCCUR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AS CONVECTION INITIATES IN COLORADO IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVES EAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THERE MAY BE A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IN THE MIX AS WELL WITH
EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS FORECAST BOTH DAYS. MODELS SHOW WEAK
INSTABILITY ON MONDAY WITH 20-30 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR, BUT
LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY ON TUESDAY, PERHAPS DUE TO CLOUD COVER
WITH THE EASTERLY WINDS. THIS SUGGESTS A LOW PROBABILITY OF
SEVERE STORMS, PRIMARILY ON MONDAY IF THE INSTABILITY CAN
MATERIALIZE. TEMPERATURES MAY COOL SLIGHTLY DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT, BUT THERE IS INCREASING SPREAD IN THE
ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY LEADING TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN JUST HOW MUCH COOLING MAY OCCUR.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1104 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR EACH TERMINAL. THERE
MAY BE A WINDOW AROUND 11Z WHERE SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP
AS SOME WEAK MOISTURE POOLS ALONG THE EDGE OF A BOUNDARY BUT
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF 6-9SM VISIBILITIES
COULD OCCUR; ULTIMATELY REMAINING VFR. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE AGAIN AROUND 14-15Z BEING SUSTAINED AT 15 KNOTS ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTH
IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST AGAIN DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...TRIGG
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