518
FXUS63 KGLD 151835
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1235 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
- ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN
KANSAS.
- HOTTER OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TRIPLE DIGITS POSSIBLE.
- STORM CHANCES MAY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2026
MORE OF THE SAME THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL
REX BLOCK CONTINUES WITH A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
CLOSED LOW OVER TEXAS. BOTH FEATURES SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE RIDGE BECOMING THE MORE DOMINANT FEATURE
FOR THE LOCAL AREA AS IT STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
CAMS STILL SHOW VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
POPPING UP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW IN TEXAS SENDS A
WEAK VORTICITY LOBE NORTH INTO KANSAS. BOTH SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE WEAK, SO NO SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED, AND THEY SHOULD FADE FAIRLY QUICKLY BY EARLY IN THE
EVENING WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. THE ENVIRONMENT ON FRIDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR, BUT WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS
THERE IS NO SYNOPTIC LIFT. CAMS SHOW SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION IN EASTERN KANSAS THAT DO NOT REACH THE LOCAL AREA.
ON SATURDAY WILL START TO SEE CONVECTION ROTATING AROUND THE
RIDGE MAKING IT INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH
A LOW PROBABILITY (LESS THAN 20%) OF REACHING SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA IN THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. VERY PATCHY
FOG MAY DEVELOP EACH MORNING WITH THE HIGH DEW POINTS AND
RADIATIONAL COOLING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS IT HAS NOT
DEVELOPED AT ALL THE PAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS. TEMPERATURES SHOW
A SLOW WARMING TREND OF A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY, REACHING THE
MID 90S BY SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2026
A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD, AND WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE PROXIMITY
TO THE RIDGE, WITH TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE. MODELS
HAVE BACKED OFF FROM WHAT WAS ALREADY LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THEY WERE SHOWING FOR THE WEEKEND. INSTEAD, WILL NEED TO WAIT
FOR THE RIDGE TO MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR DISTURBANCES MOVING
OVER THE TOP TO REACH THE AREA. THAT SHOULD START TO OCCUR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AS CONVECTION INITIATES IN COLORADO IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVES EAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THERE MAY BE A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IN THE MIX AS WELL WITH
EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS FORECAST BOTH DAYS. MODELS SHOW WEAK
INSTABILITY ON MONDAY WITH 20-30 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR, BUT
LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY ON TUESDAY, PERHAPS DUE TO CLOUD COVER
WITH THE EASTERLY WINDS. THIS SUGGESTS A LOW PROBABILITY OF
SEVERE STORMS, PRIMARILY ON MONDAY IF THE INSTABILITY CAN
MATERIALIZE. TEMPERATURES MAY COOL SLIGHTLY DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT, BUT THERE IS INCREASING SPREAD IN THE
ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY LEADING TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN JUST HOW MUCH COOLING MAY OCCUR.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT WED JUL 15 2026
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...024
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