970
FXUS63 KGLD 161853
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1253 PM MDT THU JUL 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
- LOW CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON IN KANSAS.
- HOTTER SUNDAY AND MONDAY NEARING THE TRIPLE DIGITS.
- STORM CHANCES MAY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1252 PM MDT THU JUL 16 2026
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW A LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES, BUT THERE ARE A FEW EMBEDDED LOWS
OVER THE PLAINS. THESE LOWS ARE PRODUCING SOME LITTLE VORTICITY
MAXIMUMS THAT ARE TRYING TO SHIFT TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE
EAST. WITH SOME MID- LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE, THERE IS A ~5%
CHANCE FOR ONE TO THREE SHOWERS/STORMS TO FORM IN NORTHWEST
KANSAS. IF THE PRECIPITATION DID FORM, IT SHOULD BE SUB-SEVERE
AND SHORT-LIVED. OTHERWISE, HIGHS TODAY REMAIN ON TRACK TO BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S.
TONIGHT, CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST FOR THE AREA UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE.
WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH, MAYBE SOUTHWEST WITH LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE 60S. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE FOR FOG, MAINLY IN
GOVE/GRAHAM/LOGAN COUNTIES AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TRIES TO BRING IN
GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER, THE CHANCE IS SLIM AS THE
MOISTURE HAS A LONG WAY TO ADVECT TO GET INTO THE AREA, AND THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MAY DEVELOP ENOUGH TO TRY AND BRING IN DRIER AIR
INSTEAD.
FOR FRIDAY, THE PATTERN REMAINS MUCH THE SAME WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S
AGAIN UNDERNEATH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT THE CHANCE IS LOWER AROUND
2% WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY A LITTLE LOWER COMPARED TO TODAY.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT, WINDS SHOULD AGAIN LIGHTEN AND SKIES CLEAR. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO AGAIN LOWER INTO THE 60S. THE FOG
CHANCE IS A BIT LOWER WITH THE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY TO
BE FURTHER SOUTH FROM THE AREA.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 106 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE NEARLY CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE START OF THIS PERIOD. AS SUCH HIGHS WILL BE QUITE WARM FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. PROBABILITIES FOR HIGHS ABOVE 95F ARE ABOVE 70%
FOR BOTH DAYS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURE SPREAD IN
THE ENSEMBLE DATA IS AROUND FIVE DEGREES FOR SUNDAY, INCREASING TO
10 DEGREES FOR MONDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO 100F FOR
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AFTER MONDAY THE RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH, ALLOWING
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. PROBABILITIES
FOR HIGHS ABOVE 95F FALL TO 60% OR LESS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THERE MAY BE A COUPLE FRONTS MOVING THROUGH BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR RAINFALL. THE SPREAD IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINS AROUND 10 DEGREES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.
LOOKING AT THE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS, THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
ALMOST NONEXISTENT THROUGH TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY, AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS
MORE SOUTHWARD, THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND 20KTS.
HOWEVER STORM MOTION WILL BE 10 MPH OR LESS, SO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE A POTENTIAL WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1055 AM MDT THU JUL 16 2026
FOR KGLD & KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY AROUND 10-15 KTS. OVERNIGHT,
SPEEDS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE AROUND 5-10 KTS WITH THE WINDS
POTENTIALLY MORE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE IS A 5% CHANCE FOR A
QUICK SHOWER/STORM BETWEEN 21-01Z. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...KAK
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