908
FXUS63 KGLD 171706
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1106 AM MDT FRI JUL 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
- LOW CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THE NEXT FEW
AFTERNOONS.
- HOTTER SUNDAY AND MONDAY NEARING THE TRIPLE DIGITS.
- STORM CHANCES MAY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1233 AM MDT FRI JUL 17 2026
OUR BLOCKING HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN THE LOWER LEVELS, AN 850 MB HIGH OVER THE
GULF COAST IS PROVIDING SOME WEAK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO THE
REGION. THIS IS PROVIDING SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE, WHICH PRESENTS A
5-10% CHANCE OF SOME PATCHY FOG FORMING IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA AROUND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB. HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO BE IN THE
LOW 90S WITH TOMORROW WARMING INTO THE MID 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S, MAYBE LOW 70S IN THE EASTERN CWA.
BEING ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE THIS BLOCKING HIGH, THERE IS REALLY NO
VERTICAL SUPPORT TO FORCE ANY CONVECTION. WITH THIS IN MIND, WE ARE
STILL NOT EXPECTING TO SEE ANY ORGANIZED STORMS FORM. WHAT MAY OCCUR
IS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTIVE-T SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THESE WOULD BE POP-UP CELLS THAT DON'T MOVE VERY FAR FROM WHERE THEY
START. THE BIGGEST HAZARDS FROM THIS CONVECTION WOULD BE A
MICROBURST AND DRY LIGHTNING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT THU JUL 16 2026
FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
AMPLIFY INTO THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES AND SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH
THIS, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE WARMER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S TO LOWER 100S. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SURFACE MOISTURE,
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAT INDICES TO REACH THE LOW TO
MAYBE MID 100S. THIS WOULD LIKELY FAVOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. WITH SKIES LIKELY CLEAR DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE AND LIGHT
WINDS, IT MAY FEEL QUITE WARM ACROSS THE AREA.
FOR THE MID PART OF THE WEEK (TUE-THU), AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO BEGIN DEAMPLIFYING THE RIDGE AS IT SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AS IT PUSHES THROUGH, A COLD FRONT SHOULD COME
THROUGH AND LOWER TEMPERATURES A BIT CLOSER TO THE LOW TO MID 90S.
THIS COULD ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME STORMS TO DEVELOP LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, DEPENDING ON WHEN THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. RIGHT NOW, IT
LOOKS UNLIKELY TO BE SEVERE WITH LOW INSTABILITY AND THE NEARBY
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS TIME
PERIOD IS HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG IN.
SHOULD IT DIG IN CLOSER TO THE AREA THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST,
TEMPERATURES COULD BE IN THE 80S AND WE MAY SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CHANCES FOR STORMS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT FRI JUL 17 2026
FOR KGLD & KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ROUGHLY FROM
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AROUND 10 KTS. AFTER
03-06Z, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME EITHER CALM OR LIGHT AND
VARIABLE, LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...KAK
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