114
FXUS63 KGLD 171955
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
155 PM MDT FRI JUL 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT SUNDAY AND MONDAY NEARING THE TRIPLE DIGITS.
- STORM CHANCES MAY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT FRI JUL 17 2026
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ARE FORECAST TO SEE HIGHS AROUND
THE MID 90S AND WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH AS WE REMAIN
UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE THAT CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING, LIKELY LEADING TO
A MIX OF CLOUDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
TONIGHT, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LIGHT AS SURFACE PRESSURE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS IS FORECAST TO BE NEARLY THE SAME. WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL TO NEAR
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S (WEST) TO MID 60S (EAST).
SATURDAY, WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY A BIT MORE,
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT FORECAST TO BE MUCH DIFFERENT FROM TODAY.
WITH THIS, A NEAR RINSE AND REPEAT OF FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
90S AND WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH IS FORECAST. SOME
SCATTERED LATE MORNING TO AFTERNOON CLOUDS ARE ALSO LIKELY AGAIN AS
TEMPERATURES HEAT UP.
SATURDAY NIGHT, THE BROKEN RECORD CONTINUES WITH A REPEAT OF
TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S, AND LIGHT
WINDS ARE FORECAST.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 154 PM MDT FRI JUL 17 2026
MODEL CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN
FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO
ESSENTIALLY CENTER OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS
LOOK TO BE WARMEST ON MONDAY, REACHING 100F. ENSEMBLE DATA SHOWS
HIGH PROBABILITY FOR HIGHS TO BE OVER 100 OVER THE NORTH AND EAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS SUCH, HIGHS MAY RISE A COUPLE MORE
DEGREES FOR MONDAY OVER THE COMING DAYS. CURRENT FORECAST HAS HEAT
INDEX VALUES OF 100F OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH SPOTS OF
102F HEAT INDEX EAST OF HIGHWAY 23.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS
SOUTH DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHING THE TROUGH
SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL START THE CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR THE WEEK. THE
WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA CONTINUES TO HAVE THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA CONTINUES TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS ROUND THE RIDGE AND MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE
MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST THE STORMS WILL MOVE BEFORE WEAKENING.
HOW FAR EAST THE STORMS ARE ABLE TO MOVE WILL DEPEND UPON HOW FAR
EAST THE INSTABILITY WILL BE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT FRI JUL 17 2026
FOR KGLD & KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ROUGHLY FROM
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AROUND 10 KTS. AFTER
03-06Z, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME EITHER CALM OR LIGHT AND
VARIABLE, LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...KAK
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