090
FXUS63 KGLD 180551
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1151 PM MDT FRI JUL 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT SUNDAY AND MONDAY NEARING THE TRIPLE DIGITS.
- HEIGHTENED RISK FOR HEAT RELATED STRESS ON MONDAY.
- STORM CHANCES MAY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1150 PM MDT FRI JUL 17 2026
03Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS REMAINED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LARGE H5 RIDGE, WITH WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING THE GOODLAND AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY SEEING
STRONG SUBSIDENCE/WARMING/DRYING ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE, TROUGH WAS
IN PLACE ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW. WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WAS ALSO NOTED ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER
EXTENDING ENE INTO MN.
WITH RIDGE DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE ON HOW WARM THINGS WILL GET AND
POTENTIAL FOR HEAT TO REACH POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS LEVELS BY MONDAY.
TODAY-TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE
PRIMARY METEOROLOGICAL FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION, WITH GENERALLY WEAK
EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE LIKELY REINFORCING INVERSION EXPECT THAT WILL
SUPPRESS ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. THAT BEING
SAID, 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM AROUND AREA INDICATE A SOMEWHAT
DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE THAN I WOULD HAVE GUESSED. THIS COMBINED
WITH WEAK, PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE SOUTH OF I-70 AND SOMEWHAT WEAK
MIXED LAYER INHIBITION MAY ALLOW A STRAY STORM TO DEVELOP. LIMITED
INSTABILITY, LITTLE IF ANY WIND SHEAR AND MINIMAL CELL MOVEMENT
MAKES LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION TO BE VERY LOW (LESS THAN 5%) BUT
WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. THIS SMALL THREAT WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AS
THE SUN SETS. OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO IF NOT
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...594 DM H5 RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS CO AND UT, LEADING TO CONTINUED WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE
AND HOT CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARMING
ANOTHER 1-2C EVEN LESS INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECTED. AS WAS THE CASE
AS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR
TO THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS, WITH AN OVERALL PERSISTENCE FORECAST
EXPECTED.
MONDAY...AS FAR AS WEATHER IMPACTS ARE CONCERNED, MONDAY LOOKS TO BE
THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD IN THE UPCOMING DAYS WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT, ESPECIALLY THOSE STAYING OUTSIDE OR THOSE
VULNERABLE TO THE HEAT. H85 TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM WITH VALUES
RANGING FROM 34C IN THE WEST TO NEAR 30C IN THE SOUTHEAST. GEFS AND
OPERATIONAL MODELS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO NEAR 100 DEGREES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WHILE APPARENT TEMPERATURE VALUES REMAIN IN
THE 100-104 RANGE DO HAVE CONCERNS THAT HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS (>=
105) MAY BE REACHED, PRIMARILY AS LOW LEVEL AIRMASS REMAINS FAIRLY
MOIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NO REAL CHANGE EXPECTED. IN ADDITION
TO THE TRADITIONAL HEAT INDEX AM ALSO CONCERNED THAT TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY WILL BE POOR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AS THE HEAT BUILDS. SEVERAL
LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO FALL BELOW 70 DEGREES OVERNIGHT AND WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING OVER 100 DEGREES THIS MAY BRING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF STRESS ON THOSE SENSITIVE TO THE HEAT. WITH FAIR SEASON
RAMPING UP, BE PREPARED TO MITIGATE THE HEAT FOR BOTH PEOPLE AND
LIVESTOCK.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 154 PM MDT FRI JUL 17 2026
MODEL CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN
FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO
ESSENTIALLY CENTER OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS
LOOK TO BE WARMEST ON MONDAY, REACHING 100F. ENSEMBLE DATA SHOWS
HIGH PROBABILITY FOR HIGHS TO BE OVER 100 OVER THE NORTH AND EAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS SUCH, HIGHS MAY RISE A COUPLE MORE
DEGREES FOR MONDAY OVER THE COMING DAYS. CURRENT FORECAST HAS HEAT
INDEX VALUES OF 100F OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH SPOTS OF
102F HEAT INDEX EAST OF HIGHWAY 23.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS
SOUTH DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHING THE TROUGH
SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL START THE CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR THE WEEK. THE
WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA CONTINUES TO HAVE THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA CONTINUES TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS ROUND THE RIDGE AND MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE
MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST THE STORMS WILL MOVE BEFORE WEAKENING.
HOW FAR EAST THE STORMS ARE ABLE TO MOVE WILL DEPEND UPON HOW FAR
EAST THE INSTABILITY WILL BE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1116 PM MDT FRI JUL 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING EAST SOUTH
EASTERLY LATE TOMORROW MORNING. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS WILL
DEVELOP BETWEEN 16 AND 23Z BRINGING A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 6000
FEET.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JRM
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