983
FXUS63 KGLD 181708
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1108 AM MDT SAT JUL 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
- HEIGHTENED RISK FOR HEAT RELATED STRESS ON MONDAY, WHEN AIR
TEMPS AND HEAT INDICES ~99 TO 103F ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON, HOTTEST ALONG/EAST OF HWY 83.
- CONTINUED HOT, ALBEIT SLIGHTLY COOLER, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
90'S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- LATE AFT/EVE STORM CHANCES MAY RETURN BY MID-WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1150 PM MDT FRI JUL 17 2026
03Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS REMAINED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LARGE H5 RIDGE, WITH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING THE GOODLAND AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY SEEING STRONG SUBSIDENCE/WARMING/DRYING ALOFT. AT
THE SURFACE, TROUGH WAS IN PLACE ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE
WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WAS ALSO
NOTED ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER EXTENDING ENE INTO MN.
WITH RIDGE DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE ON HOW WARM THINGS WILL GET AND
POTENTIAL FOR HEAT TO REACH POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS LEVELS BY
MONDAY.
TODAY-TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN
THE PRIMARY METEOROLOGICAL FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION, WITH
GENERALLY WEAK EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH TEMPS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 90S EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE LIKELY REINFORCING
INVERSION EXPECT THAT WILL SUPPRESS ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. THAT BEING SAID, 00Z OBSERVED
SOUNDINGS FROM AROUND AREA INDICATE A SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE
PROFILE THAN I WOULD HAVE GUESSED. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK,
PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE SOUTH OF I-70 AND SOMEWHAT WEAK MIXED
LAYER INHIBITION MAY ALLOW A STRAY STORM TO DEVELOP. LIMITED
INSTABILITY, LITTLE IF ANY WIND SHEAR AND MINIMAL CELL MOVEMENT
MAKES LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION TO BE VERY LOW (LESS THAN 5%)
BUT WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. THIS SMALL THREAT WILL DIMINISH
RAPIDLY AS THE SUN SETS. OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO IF NOT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY
NIGHT.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...594 DM H5 RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST ACROSS CO AND UT, LEADING TO CONTINUED WIDESPREAD
SUBSIDENCE AND HOT CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WARMING ANOTHER 1-2C EVEN LESS INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS
EXPECTED. AS WAS THE CASE AS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS, WITH
AN OVERALL PERSISTENCE FORECAST EXPECTED.
MONDAY...AS FAR AS WEATHER IMPACTS ARE CONCERNED, MONDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD IN THE UPCOMING DAYS WHERE
TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT, ESPECIALLY THOSE
STAYING OUTSIDE OR THOSE VULNERABLE TO THE HEAT. H85 TEMPS
CONTINUE TO WARM WITH VALUES RANGING FROM 34C IN THE WEST TO
NEAR 30C IN THE SOUTHEAST. GEFS AND OPERATIONAL MODELS SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO NEAR 100 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. WHILE APPARENT TEMPERATURE VALUES REMAIN IN THE 100-104
RANGE DO HAVE CONCERNS THAT HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS (>= 105) MAY BE
REACHED, PRIMARILY AS LOW LEVEL AIRMASS REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NO REAL CHANGE EXPECTED. IN ADDITION TO
THE TRADITIONAL HEAT INDEX AM ALSO CONCERNED THAT TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY WILL BE POOR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AS THE HEAT BUILDS.
SEVERAL LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO FALL BELOW 70 DEGREES
OVERNIGHT AND WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING OVER 100 DEGREES THIS
MAY BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRESS ON THOSE SENSITIVE TO THE
HEAT. WITH FAIR SEASON RAMPING UP, BE PREPARED TO MITIGATE THE
HEAT FOR BOTH PEOPLE AND LIVESTOCK.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 154 PM MDT FRI JUL 17 2026
MODEL CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO ESSENTIALLY CENTER OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. HIGHS LOOK TO BE WARMEST ON MONDAY, REACHING 100F.
ENSEMBLE DATA SHOWS HIGH PROBABILITY FOR HIGHS TO BE OVER 100
OVER THE NORTH AND EAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS SUCH,
HIGHS MAY RISE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES FOR MONDAY OVER THE COMING
DAYS. CURRENT FORECAST HAS HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100F OVER MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH SPOTS OF 102F HEAT INDEX EAST OF
HIGHWAY 23.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS
SOUTH DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHING THE
TROUGH SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL START THE CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR THE
WEEK. THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA CONTINUES TO HAVE
THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA CONTINUES TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER, CHANCES FOR RAINFALL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROUND THE RIDGE AND MOVE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST THE
STORMS WILL MOVE BEFORE WEAKENING. HOW FAR EAST THE STORMS ARE
ABLE TO MOVE WILL DEPEND UPON HOW FAR EAST THE INSTABILITY WILL
BE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT SAT JUL 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT (~6-12 KNOT) EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS, WITH
CLOUD COVER CONFINED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS ~6,000 TO
10,000 FT AGL.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...VINCENT
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