672
FXUS63 KGLD 190513
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1113 PM MDT SAT JUL 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
- HEIGHTENED RISK FOR HEAT RELATED STRESS ON MONDAY, WHEN AIR
TEMPS AND HEAT INDICES ~99 TO 103F ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON, HOTTEST ALONG/EAST OF HWY 83.
- CONTINUED HOT, ALBEIT SLIGHTLY COOLER, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
90'S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- LATE AFT-EVE STORM CHANCES MAY RETURN BY MID-WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SAT JUL 18 2026
A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE 4-CORNERS
(TODAY) WILL BROADEN AND EXTEND EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES (SUN) AND ADJOINING PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS (MON).
PRIMARILY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST. WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
BENEATH THE RIDGE, WEAK TO NEUTRAL HORIZONTAL THERMAL ADVECTION
AND THE ABSENCE OF CONVECTION (I.E. NO OUTFLOW) OVER OR UPSTREAM
OF THE TRI-STATE AREA, TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY BE A FUNCTION
OF DIURNAL HEATING/INSOLATION AND GRADUAL (DAY-TO-DAY) AIRMASS
MODIFICATION. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, EXPECT SENSIBLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO TODAY, ALBEIT SLIGHTLY WARMER EACH DAY,
CULMINATING IN HIGHS (AND HEAT INDICES) ~99-103F ON MONDAY.
DESPITE WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MECHANICAL MIXING, WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL, NEVERTHELESS,
FOSTER A MODEST DAY-TO-DAY INCREASE IN MIXED-LAYER DEPTH (I.E.
DEEPER VERTICAL MIXING) AND A CORRESPONDING DECREASE IN SURFACE
DEWPOINTS DURING PEAK HEATING, KEEPING APPARENT TEMPERATURES
(HEAT INDICES) AT OR BELOW AIR TEMPERATURES.. I.E. BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SAT JUL 18 2026
TUESDAY: THE DOMINANT 500 MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ON
TUESDAY, BUT THE AXIS SLOWLY MIGRATES SOUTHWARD. WHILE THE CORE
OF THE HIGHER HEAT (TEMPERATURES) WILL START TO WANE, LOW LEVEL
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A WARM AND SOMEWHAT
HUMID AIR MASS ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY SIT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. LOOKING AT THE NATIONAL
BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) PROBABILISTIC DATA, MAX TEMPERATURES
EXCEEDING 95 (WHICH IS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR) HAS FALLEN TO AROUND 60% OR LESS FOR TUESDAY
(INDICATING A GRADUALLY COOLING TREND) AS A WEAK COOL FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S AS WARM WEATHER CONTINUES.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY: A MORE NOTICEABLE PATTERN SHIFT ARRIVES BY
WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FLATTEN OUT AND BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AND
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION HAS A QUASI-ZONAL TO NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES WITH
DECENT VORTICITY SPIN WITHIN THE MAIN FLOW. AS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA, HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL PULL BACK A BIT INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS, ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTS IN EASTERN COLORADO MAY ONLY REACH
THE UPPER 80S.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE SOME DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
SOME INDICATION OF CAPE (INSTABILITY) PROFILES THAT COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION TO FIRE UP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.
WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME, ANY STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE A DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WITH LOTS OF LOWER DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH INVERTED V TYPE
SOUNDINGS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1055 PM MDT SAT JUL 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY BETWEEN 9 AND 15KTS
AFTER 18Z TOMORROW.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JRM
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