108
FXUS63 KGLD 191613
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1013 AM MDT SUN JUL 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH MONDAY.
- THREAT FOR HEAT RELATED STRESS WILL BE HIGHEST ON MONDAY WITH
A HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING STORM CHANCES RETURN BY MID-WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1234 AM MDT SUN JUL 19 2026
04Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED LARGE H5
RIDGE REMAINING FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE AREA, WITH DRY AND
SUBSIDENT ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE, VERY SIMILAR PATTERN TO THIS TIME
YESTERDAY WITH LOW/TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN
WYOMING AND WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION LEADING TO LITTLE
IF ANY CHANCE FOR MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE START OF
THE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUE TO WARM TODAY AND
TOMORROW AS RIDGE CENTER GRADUALLY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH. A COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT MONDAY BRINGING A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY. WITH FRONT LIKELY NOT ENTERING AREA
UNTIL WELL AFTER SUNSET AND DRY/SUBSIDENT PATTERN OUT AHEAD OF
FRONT, DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY PRECIP POTENTIAL AS IT
PASSES. MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD WILL CENTER AROUND
TEMPERATURES AND RESULTING IMPACTS. IN A LOT OF WAYS, FORECAST
WILL GENERALLY BE RATHER PERSISTENT AS PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE
FROM WHAT OCCURRED ON SATURDAY. AS TEMPERATURES WARM ALOFT
ANOTHER 3-5C EXPECT EACH DAY TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY. TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TRACK
ACROSS SEVERAL LOCATIONS ON MONDAY, ALTHOUGH DID NOT A SLIGHT
DOWNWARD TREND ON ENSEMBLE VALUES AND SOME BIAS CORRECTED DATA
BEING A BIT LESS BULLISH ON COVERAGE OF THESE HIGHER
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE WARMING TREND ALOFT AND LITTLE CHANGE IN
OVERALL SITUATION GOING TO LEAN TOWARDS WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
AS THE HEAT BUILDS TODAY AND TOMORROW. WITH THE INCREASED
TEMPERATURES THREAT FOR HEAT RELATED IMPACTS WILL INCREASE AS
WELL. GOING STRICTLY BY HEAT INDICES, NOT SURE IF WE WOULD MEET
THE TRADITIONAL THRESHOLD FOR HEAT ADVISORIES. HOWEVER, NWS HEAT
RISK ALGORITHM SHOWING AREAS OF MAJOR IMPACT ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND AS WELL AS IMPACTS/POOR RECOVERY WITH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WITH FAIR SEASON GETTING
GOING AND THIS BEING ONE OF THE HOTTEST PERIODS THIS YEAR, THINK
A HEAT ADVISORY MONDAY IS WARRANTED.
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...A WELL ADVERTISED COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY AND BEING NOTICEABLY STRONGER
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE. WHILE
TECHNICALLY A COLD FRONT, CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE 5
TO 10 DEGREES COOLER. NARROW AXIS OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, POTENTIALLY ALLOWING A STORM OR TWO TO
DEVELOP ALONG FRONT RANGE OR EASTERN COLORADO. GIVEN HOW NARROW
THIS INITIAL INSTABILITY AXIS IS AND ITS RATHER FAST MOTION, NOT
CONFIDENT AREA WILL SEE ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY GEFS PROBABILITIES.
CHANCES SHOULD IMPROVE OVERNIGHT HOWEVER AS H85-H7 WARM AIR
ADVECTION PROVIDES LIFT REQUIRED TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OR
STORMS. IF THESE DO DEVELOP, NOT ANTICIPATING SEVERE WEATHER AS
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SAT JUL 18 2026
TUESDAY: THE DOMINANT 500 MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
ON TUESDAY, BUT THE AXIS SLOWLY MIGRATES SOUTHWARD. WHILE THE
CORE OF THE HIGHER HEAT (TEMPERATURES) WILL START TO WANE, LOW
LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A WARM AND
SOMEWHAT HUMID AIR MASS ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY SIT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. LOOKING
AT THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) PROBABILISTIC DATA, MAX
TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 95 (WHICH IS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) HAS FALLEN TO AROUND 60% OR LESS
FOR TUESDAY (INDICATING A GRADUALLY COOLING TREND) AS A WEAK
COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S AS WARM WEATHER CONTINUES.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY: A MORE NOTICEABLE PATTERN SHIFT ARRIVES BY
WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FLATTEN OUT AND BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AND
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION HAS A QUASI-ZONAL TO NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES WITH
DECENT VORTICITY SPIN WITHIN THE MAIN FLOW. AS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA, HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL PULL BACK A BIT INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS, ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTS IN EASTERN COLORADO MAY ONLY REACH
THE UPPER 80S.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE SOME DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
SOME INDICATION OF CAPE (INSTABILITY) PROFILES THAT COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION TO FIRE UP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.
WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME, ANY STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE A DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WITH LOTS OF LOWER DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH INVERTED V TYPE
SOUNDINGS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1010 AM MDT SUN JUL 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT (~7-13 KNOT) SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH
TERMINALS. A FEW SPORADIC WIND GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING/MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM
SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS ~8,000 TO 10,000 FT AGL DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, CLEAR SKIES WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
KSZ001>004-014>016.
CO...NONE.
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MDT /7 AM CDT/ MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
/1 AM CDT/ MONDAY NIGHT FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...VINCENT
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