227
FXUS63 KGLD 191922
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
122 PM MDT SUN JUL 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH MONDAY.
- THREAT FOR HEAT RELATED STRESS WILL BE HIGHEST ON MONDAY WITH
A HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING STORM CHANCES RETURN BY MID-WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 115 PM MDT SUN JUL 19 2026
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: THE CORE OF THE PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE 4-CORNERS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES (TODAY) WILL BROADEN AND
EXTEND SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
MON-TUE.. AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA, ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN DIGS
ESE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS (MON) AND UPPER GREAT LAKES (TUE).
TODAY-MONDAY: PRIMARILY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST. WEAK
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BENEATH THE RIDGE, WEAK TO NEUTRAL HORIZONTAL
THERMAL ADVECTION AND THE CONTINUED ABSENCE OF CONVECTION (I.E.
NO OUTFLOW) OVER OR UPSTREAM OF THE TRI-STATE AREA, TEMPERATURES
WILL LARGELY BE A FUNCTION OF DIURNAL HEATING/INSOLATION AND
GRADUAL (DAY-TO-DAY) AIRMASS MODIFICATION. FOR TODAY AND MONDAY,
EXPECT SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
(SATURDAY), ALBEIT SLIGHTLY WARMER EACH DAY, CULMINATING IN
HIGHS (AND HEAT INDICES) ~100-105F ON MONDAY. DESPITE WEAK
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MECHANICAL MIXING,
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL, NONETHELESS, FOSTER A MODEST DAY-TO-
DAY INCREASE IN MIXED-LAYER DEPTH (I.E. DEEPER VERTICAL MIXING)
AND A CORRESPONDING DECREASE IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS DURING PEAK
HEATING, KEEPING APPARENT TEMPERATURES (HEAT INDICES) AT OR
BELOW AIR TEMPERATURES IN EASTERN CO AND EXTREME WESTERN KS.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60'S AND
APPARENT TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AIR TEMPERATURES WILL
BE CONFINED TO EASTERN/LOWER ELEVATION PORTIONS OF THE GOODLAND
COUNTY WARNING AREA, MAINLY EAST AND NORTH OF COLBY, KS. THE
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY REMAINS IN PLACE AS-IS (NO CHANGES).
TUE-TUE NIGHT: AN INVERTED SURFACE RIDGE.. THE SOUTHERNMOST
EXTENT OF SURFACE PRESSURE RISES AND LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF A MODEST MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT..
WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE GOODLAND COUNTY WARNING AREA TUE
MORNING, MANIFESTING AS AN ABRUPT NE OR ENE WIND SHIFT AND
MODEST EFFECTIVE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT A PERIOD OF
RELATIVELY BREEZY (~20-30 MPH) ENE WINDS IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM ~92-95F (NORTH) TO
~95-100F (SOUTH). IN CONTRAST TO PREVIOUS DAYS, THE TIMING OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FACTOR INFLUENCING
HIGHS. WHILE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSING EFFECTIVE FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION SOUTH OF I-70 DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON, A
PROFOUNDLY SUPPRESSIVE (AND THERMODYNAMICALLY HOSTILE)
ENVIRONMENT BENEATH THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY HAMPER, OR ALTOGETHER PRECLUDE, CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT. WITH THIS IN MIND, PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SAT JUL 18 2026
TUESDAY: THE DOMINANT 500 MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
ON TUESDAY, BUT THE AXIS SLOWLY MIGRATES SOUTHWARD. WHILE THE
CORE OF THE HIGHER HEAT (TEMPERATURES) WILL START TO WANE, LOW
LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A WARM AND
SOMEWHAT HUMID AIR MASS ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY SIT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. LOOKING
AT THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) PROBABILISTIC DATA, MAX
TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 95 (WHICH IS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) HAS FALLEN TO AROUND 60% OR LESS
FOR TUESDAY (INDICATING A GRADUALLY COOLING TREND) AS A WEAK
COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S AS WARM WEATHER CONTINUES.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY: A MORE NOTICEABLE PATTERN SHIFT ARRIVES BY
WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FLATTEN OUT AND BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AND
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION HAS A QUASI-ZONAL TO NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES WITH
DECENT VORTICITY SPIN WITHIN THE MAIN FLOW. AS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA, HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL PULL BACK A BIT INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS, ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTS IN EASTERN COLORADO MAY ONLY REACH
THE UPPER 80S.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE SOME DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
SOME INDICATION OF CAPE (INSTABILITY) PROFILES THAT COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION TO FIRE UP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.
WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME, ANY STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE A DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WITH LOTS OF LOWER DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH INVERTED V TYPE
SOUNDINGS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1010 AM MDT SUN JUL 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT (~7-13 KNOT) SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH
TERMINALS. A FEW SPORADIC WIND GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING/MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM
SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS ~8,000 TO 10,000 FT AGL DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, CLEAR SKIES WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
KSZ001>004-014>016.
CO...NONE.
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MDT /7 AM CDT/ MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
/1 AM CDT/ MONDAY NIGHT FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...MCK
AVIATION...VINCENT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page