502
FXUS63 KGLD 311801
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1201 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY TODAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH GUSTING UP
TO 35 MPH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A BIT COOLER TODAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 90.
- WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
90S ON SUNDAY AND TRIPLE DIGITS ON MONDAY.
- SLIGHTLY HIGHER FIRE DANGER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE TEENS AND 20S WHILE WINDS GUST AROUND
20-30 MPH.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1251 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2026
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT THAT
HELPED SPARK THE EARLIER STORMS IS PUSHING OUT OF THE AREA TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST. WINDS HAVE BEEN SHIFTING TO OUT OF THE NORTH
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SPEEDS AROUND 5 TO 10
MPH. MEANWHILE, THE STORMS ACTIVITY HAS COME TO AN END AS WE
HAVE STABILIZED QUITE A BIT. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF MUCAPE
WHICH COULD PRODUCE A SHOWER OR BRIEF STORM THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT, BUT THIS IS A LOW CHANCE WITH THE MAIN
FORCING MECHANISM MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE, SKIES
SHOULD BE MOST CLEAR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 60S. THERE MAY BE A FEW CLOUDS
THAT FORM AND PUSH THROUGH AROUND THE NEBRASKA BORDER CLOSE TO
SUNRISE.
FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS, THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE OVER THE PLAINS AS WE SHIFT TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
HOWEVER, LOWER PRESSURE IS STILL FORECAST TO LINGER ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE, SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND EASTERN PLAINS. THIS IS
FORECAST TO KEEP A SOMEWHAT TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA AND ALLOW FOR NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW, KEEPING
HIGHS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, STORMS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CONVERGENCE ZONES ALONG THE LOW
PRESSURE. WHILE THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME OF THOSE ZONES SHIFT
TO NEAR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES, THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE STORMS
FORMING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND MOVING EAST. THE ISSUE FOR THE
STORMS IS THAT THEY ARE FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR, LIKELY CAUSING MOST OF THEM TO FALL APART. WITH
THIS, THE AREA HAS A LOW CHANCE AROUND 10% THAT STORMS MAKE IT
TO THE AREA. IF A STORM DOES SURVIVE, IT MAY PRODUCE A WIND GUST
TO 60 MPH, BUT WOULD LIKELY BE SUB- SEVERE.
FRIDAY NIGHT, SKIES SHOULD INITIALLY START PARTLY CLOUDY FROM
THE STORMS IN THE REGION BEFORE CLEARING AND ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. THE HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO FORECAST TO BROADEN OVER
MUCH OF THE PLAINS, ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. AS SUCH, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO FALL A DECENT
AMOUNT WITH UPPER 50S FORECAST IN EASTERN COLORADO, AND LOW 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF NW KANSAS AND SW NEBRASKA. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE
FOR SOME FOG EAST OF HIGHWAY 83, BUT WE'LL HAVE TO SEE HOW MUCH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN LINGER IN THE AREA.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2026
SYNOPTICALLY FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD, ON SATURDAY THERE IS A
RIDGE THAT WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE WEEK THERE WILL BE SOME
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL CREATE
SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA).
OVERALL FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST, IT IS LOOKING TO BE HOT,
DRY, AND WINDY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE HIGH 90S, WITH MONDAY POTENTIALLY REACHING THE LOW
100S. WINDS LOOK TO BE BREEZY TO GUSTY AND MAINLY FORM THE SOUTH
TO EAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA AS SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION.
MONDAY DOES HAVE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. MONDAY'S HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE HIGH 90S TO LOW 100S FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE CWA. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE LOOKING TO BE IN THE HIGH
TEENS TO LOW 20S, PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS WEST OF KS HWY 27.
LOOKING AT THE WIND GUSTS, THEY ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE IN
THE RANGE OF 20-40 MPH FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. MOVING TO
GFDI, VALUES MAINLY FOR EASTERN COLORADO ARE IN THE 30-59, WHICH
WOULD PROMOTE VERY HIGH FIRE GROWTH. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE
THREAT OF DRY LIGHTNING FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN COLORADO. WITH THESE CONDITIONS ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE; HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THE
TIMING OF WHEN ALL THE INGREDIENTS FOR ELEVATED CRITERIA WILL BE
MET AT THE SAME TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1148 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH
TERMINALS. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KNOTS WILL ABATE DURING
THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON, THOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BREEZY (~14-18 KNOTS) THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE NE AND DECREASE TO 10-12 KNOTS AROUND OR
SHORTLY BEFORE SUNSET, THEN FURTHER WEAKEN AND BECOME LIGHT/
VARIABLE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...HOLDREN
AVIATION...VINCENT
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