544
FXUS63 KGLD 312003
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
203 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY TODAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH GUSTING UP
TO 35 MPH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A BIT COOLER TODAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 90.
- WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
90S ON SUNDAY AND TRIPLE DIGITS ON MONDAY.
- SLIGHTLY HIGHER FIRE DANGER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE TEENS AND 20S WHILE WINDS GUST AROUND
20-30 MPH.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1251 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2026
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT THAT
HELPED SPARK THE EARLIER STORMS IS PUSHING OUT OF THE AREA TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST. WINDS HAVE BEEN SHIFTING TO OUT OF THE NORTH
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SPEEDS AROUND 5 TO 10
MPH. MEANWHILE, THE STORMS ACTIVITY HAS COME TO AN END AS WE
HAVE STABILIZED QUITE A BIT. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF MUCAPE
WHICH COULD PRODUCE A SHOWER OR BRIEF STORM THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT, BUT THIS IS A LOW CHANCE WITH THE MAIN
FORCING MECHANISM MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE, SKIES
SHOULD BE MOST CLEAR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 60S. THERE MAY BE A FEW CLOUDS
THAT FORM AND PUSH THROUGH AROUND THE NEBRASKA BORDER CLOSE TO
SUNRISE.
FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS, THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE OVER THE PLAINS AS WE SHIFT TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
HOWEVER, LOWER PRESSURE IS STILL FORECAST TO LINGER ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE, SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND EASTERN PLAINS. THIS IS
FORECAST TO KEEP A SOMEWHAT TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA AND ALLOW FOR NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW, KEEPING
HIGHS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, STORMS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CONVERGENCE ZONES ALONG THE LOW
PRESSURE. WHILE THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME OF THOSE ZONES SHIFT
TO NEAR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES, THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE STORMS
FORMING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND MOVING EAST. THE ISSUE FOR THE
STORMS IS THAT THEY ARE FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR, LIKELY CAUSING MOST OF THEM TO FALL APART. WITH
THIS, THE AREA HAS A LOW CHANCE AROUND 10% THAT STORMS MAKE IT
TO THE AREA. IF A STORM DOES SURVIVE, IT MAY PRODUCE A WIND GUST
TO 60 MPH, BUT WOULD LIKELY BE SUB- SEVERE.
FRIDAY NIGHT, SKIES SHOULD INITIALLY START PARTLY CLOUDY FROM
THE STORMS IN THE REGION BEFORE CLEARING AND ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. THE HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO FORECAST TO BROADEN OVER
MUCH OF THE PLAINS, ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. AS SUCH, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO FALL A DECENT
AMOUNT WITH UPPER 50S FORECAST IN EASTERN COLORADO, AND LOW 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF NW KANSAS AND SW NEBRASKA. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE
FOR SOME FOG EAST OF HIGHWAY 83, BUT WE'LL HAVE TO SEE HOW MUCH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN LINGER IN THE AREA.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2026
SYNOPTICALLY, NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SUNDAY
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DE-AMPLIFY AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
THROUGH CANADA/US BORDER. COME MONDAY, WE BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO
MORE ZONAL FLOW. ONCE AGAIN THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, THERE LOOKS TO BE
SOME SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THAT MAY CREATE SOME
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA).
OVERALL FOR THE LONG TERM, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE HIGH 90S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. HOWEVER WEDNESDAY WE HAVE
A BRIEF "COOL" DOWN WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
WINDS FOR THE WEEK LOOK TO BE BREEZY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA.
STARTING ON MONDAY, THE CWA'S PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TO
INCREASE. AS EACH SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH, THERE IS AROUND A 20-40%
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
CHANCES BEGIN TO DECREASE TO 10-20%.
FOR THIS PERIOD THERE ARE SOME LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BEGINNING
WITH SUNDAY, WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE
AND MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES LOOK TO BE
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20%S. THE LOWEST RH VALUES LOOK TO BE
MAINLY WEST OF KS HWY 27. MOVING TO GFDI, THE MAXIMUM VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 30-45 RANGE MAINLY FOR THE NORTHWEST PORTION
OF THE CWA. THESE VALUES WOULD PROMOTE VERY HIGH FIRE GROWTH. WITH
THIS BEING SAID, THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS WITH WHETHER OR NOT ALL OF
THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT THE SAME TIME.
MONDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY WITH THE CHANGES OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 100S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. RH VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20%S FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE CWA. THE LOWEST VALUES AGAIN ARE FOR AREAS WEST OF KS HWY 27.
GUSTS ARE ONCE AGAIN MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH AND IN THE RANGE OF 20-30
MPH. GFDI VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 30-59 FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE CWA. ONE OTHER THING TO MENTION IS MONDAY DOES HAVE A CHANCE OF
SEEING THUNDERSTORMS, SO DRY LIGHTNING MAY ALSO POSE A RISK WHEREVER
STORMS DEVELOP.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1148 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH
TERMINALS. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KNOTS WILL ABATE DURING
THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON, THOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BREEZY (~14-18 KNOTS) THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE NE AND DECREASE TO 10-12 KNOTS AROUND OR
SHORTLY BEFORE SUNSET, THEN FURTHER WEAKEN AND BECOME LIGHT/
VARIABLE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...HOLDREN
AVIATION...VINCENT
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