356
FXUS63 KGLD 011701
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1101 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND LATE THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
90S ON SUNDAY AND TRIPLE DIGITS ON MONDAY.
- SLIGHTLY HIGHER FIRE DANGER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE TEENS AND 20S WHILE WINDS GUST AROUND
20-30 MPH.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1205 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2026
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS HAD MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA,
EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE TRI-STATE BORDER
AREA. HOWEVER, THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, ALONG WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY, HAVE
CAUSED THEM TO FALL APART. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BROADENS ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 60.
FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS, THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
AMPLIFIED INTO CANADA. HOWEVER, THE MAIN AXIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WEST OF THE AREA, KEEPING US UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW WITH AN UPPER LOW
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 90. THE BIGGER
CHANGE IS THAT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 MPH THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS OVER THE AREA.
TONIGHT, THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO TILT MORE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AS IT DOES SO, LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRY AND
DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND HIGH PLAINS. WHILE THE CENTER
SHOULD STAY WELL WEST OF THE AREA, THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT
TO BE MORE FROM THE SOUTH. SPEEDS MAY ALSO INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15
MPH DEPENDING ON HOW TIGHT THE GRADIENT BECOMES. WITH THIS, LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY TO STAY IN THE 60S UNLESS THE WIND
INCREASE DELAYS UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2026
SYNOPTICALLY, NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
SUNDAY THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DE-AMPLIFY AS A TROUGH BEGINS
TO MOVE THROUGH CANADA/US BORDER. COME MONDAY, WE BEGIN TO
TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW. ONCE AGAIN THROUGHOUT THE WEEK,
THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THAT
MAY CREATE SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA (CWA).
OVERALL FOR THE LONG TERM, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE HIGH 90S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. HOWEVER WEDNESDAY
WE HAVE A BRIEF "COOL" DOWN WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S. WINDS FOR THE WEEK LOOK TO BE BREEZY FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA. STARTING ON MONDAY, THE CWA'S PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BEGIN TO INCREASE. AS EACH SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH, THERE IS
AROUND A 20-40% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY CHANCES BEGIN TO DECREASE TO 10-20%.
FOR THIS PERIOD THERE ARE SOME LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
BEGINNING WITH SUNDAY, WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
20-30 MPH RANGE AND MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
(RH) VALUES LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20%S. THE
LOWEST RH VALUES LOOK TO BE MAINLY WEST OF KS HWY 27. MOVING TO
GFDI, THE MAXIMUM VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 30-45 RANGE
MAINLY FOR THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. THESE VALUES WOULD
PROMOTE VERY HIGH FIRE GROWTH. WITH THIS BEING SAID, THERE ARE
SOME CONCERNS WITH WHETHER OR NOT ALL OF THESE CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR AT THE SAME TIME.
MONDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY WITH THE CHANGES OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 100S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. RH
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20%S FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA. THE LOWEST VALUES AGAIN ARE FOR AREAS WEST
OF KS HWY 27. GUSTS ARE ONCE AGAIN MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH AND IN
THE RANGE OF 20-30 MPH. GFDI VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
30-59 FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. ONE OTHER THING TO MENTION IS
MONDAY DOES HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS, SO DRY
LIGHTNING MAY ALSO POSE A RISK WHEREVER STORMS DEVELOP.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2026
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...HOLDREN
AVIATION...024
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