059
FXUS63 KGLD 011849
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1249 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT WITH MID TO UPPER 90S ON SUNDAY AND LOWER 100S ON MONDAY.
- STORM CHANCES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THEN AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT.
- COOLER ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2026
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BRING DRY AND
HOT CONDITIONS TODAY AND SUNDAY. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER WILL FLATTEN
THE RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.
THE HEAT WILL PEAK ON MONDAY WITH LOWER 100S EXPECTED.
CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS THAT PARAMETERS FALL JUST SHY OF BOTH
HEAT ADVISORY AND RED FLAG CRITERIA, BUT NOT BY MUCH. A SURFACE
TROUGH IN NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. CAMS FORECAST SBCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KTS. BEST FORCING WILL STAY WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA, BUT THERE ARE SOME WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS BRUSHES THE AREA. INITIATION WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN 20-00Z IN NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH SOME SLIGHT VARIATION
IN THE MODELS, THEN MOVING EAST INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING. THE HOT, DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
PROMOTE DCAPE VALUES OF UP TO 2000 J/KG, SUGGESTING THAT WIND
WILL BE PRIMARY HAZARD NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN SEVERAL DAYS OF
ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS, BLOWING DUST WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING.
ON TUESDAY, WILL SEE MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS THE RIDGE
RETREATS TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TO MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MODELS SHOW THE COLD
FRONT SOUTH OF I-70 WITH POST FRONTAL EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN
MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE 80S, PERHAPS A FEW 90S NEAR THE FRONT DEPENDING ON
ULTIMATE LOCATION. RFS SUGGESTS CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP FAIRLY
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND PALMER DIVIDE,
THEN CHANCES SPREADING EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS IS FORECAST IN THE
POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, LATER TIMING MAY LIMIT
SEVERE THREAT AS INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKENING DURING THE
EVENING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2026
SYNOPTICALLY, NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
SUNDAY THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DE-AMPLIFY AS A TROUGH BEGINS
TO MOVE THROUGH CANADA/US BORDER. COME MONDAY, WE BEGIN TO
TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW. ONCE AGAIN THROUGHOUT THE WEEK,
THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THAT
MAY CREATE SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA (CWA).
OVERALL FOR THE LONG TERM, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE HIGH 90S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. HOWEVER WEDNESDAY
WE HAVE A BRIEF "COOL" DOWN WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S. WINDS FOR THE WEEK LOOK TO BE BREEZY FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA. STARTING ON MONDAY, THE CWA'S PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BEGIN TO INCREASE. AS EACH SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH, THERE IS
AROUND A 20-40% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY CHANCES BEGIN TO DECREASE TO 10-20%.
FOR THIS PERIOD THERE ARE SOME LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
BEGINNING WITH SUNDAY, WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
20-30 MPH RANGE AND MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
(RH) VALUES LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20%S. THE
LOWEST RH VALUES LOOK TO BE MAINLY WEST OF KS HWY 27. MOVING TO
GFDI, THE MAXIMUM VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 30-45 RANGE
MAINLY FOR THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. THESE VALUES WOULD
PROMOTE VERY HIGH FIRE GROWTH. WITH THIS BEING SAID, THERE ARE
SOME CONCERNS WITH WHETHER OR NOT ALL OF THESE CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR AT THE SAME TIME.
MONDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY WITH THE CHANGES OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 100S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. RH
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20%S FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA. THE LOWEST VALUES AGAIN ARE FOR AREAS WEST
OF KS HWY 27. GUSTS ARE ONCE AGAIN MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH AND IN
THE RANGE OF 20-30 MPH. GFDI VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
30-59 FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. ONE OTHER THING TO MENTION IS
MONDAY DOES HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS, SO DRY
LIGHTNING MAY ALSO POSE A RISK WHEREVER STORMS DEVELOP.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2026
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...HOLDREN
AVIATION...024
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