966
FXUS63 KGLD 012042
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
242 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT WITH MID TO UPPER 90S ON SUNDAY AND LOWER 100S ON MONDAY.
- STORM CHANCES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THEN AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT.
- COOLER ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2026
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BRING DRY AND
HOT CONDITIONS TODAY AND SUNDAY. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER WILL FLATTEN
THE RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.
THE HEAT WILL PEAK ON MONDAY WITH LOWER 100S EXPECTED.
CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS THAT PARAMETERS FALL JUST SHY OF BOTH
HEAT ADVISORY AND RED FLAG CRITERIA, BUT NOT BY MUCH. A SURFACE
TROUGH IN NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. CAMS FORECAST SBCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KTS. BEST FORCING WILL STAY WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA, BUT THERE ARE SOME WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS BRUSHES THE AREA. INITIATION WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN 20-00Z IN NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH SOME SLIGHT VARIATION
IN THE MODELS, THEN MOVING EAST INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING. THE HOT, DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
PROMOTE DCAPE VALUES OF UP TO 2000 J/KG, SUGGESTING THAT WIND
WILL BE PRIMARY HAZARD NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN SEVERAL DAYS OF
ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS, BLOWING DUST WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING.
ON TUESDAY, WILL SEE MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS THE RIDGE
RETREATS TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TO MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MODELS SHOW THE COLD
FRONT SOUTH OF I-70 WITH POST FRONTAL EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN
MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE 80S, PERHAPS A FEW 90S NEAR THE FRONT DEPENDING ON
ULTIMATE LOCATION. RFS SUGGESTS CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP FAIRLY
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND PALMER DIVIDE,
THEN CHANCES SPREADING EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS IS FORECAST IN THE
POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, LATER TIMING MAY LIMIT
SEVERE THREAT AS INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKENING DURING THE
EVENING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2026
SYNOPTICALLY, THE LONG TERM SETUP REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED. THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAINLY ZONAL. AS WE MOVE INTO
THE WEEKEND, GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE RIDGE OF THE WESTERN US WILL
BEGIN TO RE-AMPLIFY AND PROPOGATE TO THE EAST. THIS WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSITION THE FLOW TO BE FROM THE NORTHWEST. DURING THIS PERIOD
THERE WILL BE A FEW SHORTWAVES THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
CREATING SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
WEDNESDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE THE "COOLEST" OF THE
PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S. A WARMING TREND WILL
BEGIN ON THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. BY FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY, THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 90S. ALSO, SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE LOCALIZED HIGHS
REACHING TRIPLE DIGITS. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN CALM TO BREEZY
THROUGHOUT MID WEEK TO THE WEEKEND. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO MAINLY STAY ABOVE 20% EXCEPT FOR FRIDAY WERE
EASTERN COLORADO COULD SEE VALUES IN THE HIGH TEENS TO LOW 20S.
MOVING TO PRECIPITATION, THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SHORTWAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2026
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...HOLDREN
AVIATION...024
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