893
FXUS63 KGLD 020613
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1213 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT WITH MID TO UPPER 90S ON SUNDAY AND LOWER 100S ON MONDAY.
- STORM CHANCES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THEN AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT.
- COOLER ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1212 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2026
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN PLAINS TILTING FURTHER EAST. MEANWHILE, A BROAD AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER THE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE
SKIES CLEAR IN THE AREA AND WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH. WITH DEWPOINTS
NOW IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S, TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 60.
FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS, THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
TILT AND SLIGHTLY MOVE EAST. THIS SHOULD WARM THE AREA UP A
BIT, ESPECIALLY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING IN THE FRONT RANGE
AND NORTHERN PLAINS THAT WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER
90S, WITH MAYBE A FEW 100S ALSO POSSIBLE. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 50, KEEPING HEAT INDEX
VALUES WELL INTO THE 90S. WITH THE DEEPENING LOW WEST AND NORTH
OF THE AREA, WIND SPEEDS SHOULD PICK UP A BIT TO AROUND 10-20
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30- 35 MPH. BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR IN EASTERN COLORADO IF TEMPERATURES DO WARM
TO NEAR 100, BUT NOTHING THAT WARRANTS A RED FLAG IS FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR.
MONDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY A BIT, BUT HAVE ITS
AXIS SWING OVER THE AREA. WITH THIS AND THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER IN THE LOW TO MID
100S. THE SAVING GRACE FROM A HEAT PERSPECTIVE IS THAT DEWPOINTS ARE
FORECAST TO MAINLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AGAIN. THIS SHOULD KEEP
HEAT INDEX VALUES RIGHT AROUND 100, BUT WE'LL NEED TO WATCH AND SEE
HOW MUCH MOISTURE GETS BROUGHT IN WITH THE SURFACE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD AGAIN BE AROUND 10-20 MPH FROM
THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH, THOUGH NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA MIGHT LOWER IN THE AFTERNOON IF THE LOW/FRONT PUSH THROUGH
DURING THAT TIME. WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES, CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE A BIT MORE LIKELY COMPARED TO SUNDAY. STILL,
MOST SCENARIOS HAVE RELATIVE HUMIDITY RIGHT AT OR ABOVE 15%. HAVE
OPTED TO NOT ISSUE ANYTHING NOW, BUT WILL WATCH CLOSELY TO SEE IF A
RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE NEEDED.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PUSH THE SURFACE LOW/FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY AS THE LOW PUSHES IN. FOR
NOW, GUIDANCE REALLY FAVORS PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AROUND THE FRONT RANGE/PALMER DIVIDE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LOW. GUIDANCE DOES VARY QUITE A BIT THOUGH ON HOW TIGHT THE LOW WILL
BE AND HOW FAST IT MOVES IN. IF THE LOW TIGHTENS, STORMS MAY SPARK
OVER THE AREA INSTEAD OF JUST TO THE WEST. AS FOR THE SPEED, THERE
IS ENOUGH OF A RANGE TO SUGGEST AS EARLY AS 1-3PM MT, AND AS LATE AS
NEAR SUNSET. FOR NOW, GOING WITH A START TIME IN EASTERN COLORADO
AROUND 4-6PM MT WITH THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING IF IT
HOLDS TOGETHER. EVEN WITH THE LOW AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE,
WE MAY STILL BE TOO DRY AND HAVE TOO LITTLE INSTABILITY. THIS DOES
FAVOR THOUGH A WIND GUST AND BLOWING DUST THREAT WITH THE DYING
SHOWERS/STORMS. GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH SEEM REASONABLE FOR NOW, AND
BLOWING DUST COULD LOWER VISIBILITY TO A QUARTER OF A MILE. STILL,
THERE'S NOT MUCH TO SUGGEST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD AND MORE LIKE AN
ISOLATED INSTANCE OR TWO. THEN AS LONG AS THE LOW DOESN'T PULL IN
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE, PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BEFORE MIDNIGHT OR
MAYBE EVEN A FEW HOURS SOONER.
TUESDAY, MOST OF THE PLAINS IS FORECAST TO BE UNDER TROUGHING/ZONAL
FLOW WITH THE UPPER RIDGE MORE CONFINED TO THE WEST COAST. BETWEEN
THIS AND THE FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
BE QUITE A BIT COOLER IN THE 80S AND 90S. WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE
ARE FORECAST TO HAVE SHIFT TO OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AT SPEEDS
OF 10-20 MPH. WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES, BOTH THE FIRE AND HEAT
RISK ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEGLIGIBLE. THE THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS
IF THE SURFACE LOW/FRONT CAN RETROGRADE INTO THE AREA OR STALL OUT
IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. IF SO, WE WILL HAVE A PRIME
TRIGGER FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE
REINFORCING UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. FOR NOW,
MOST SHOWER AND STORMS ACTIVITY SEEMS LIKE IT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA. THIS AGAIN WOULD CHANGE IF THE SYSTEM SHIFTS NORTH. THERE
IS ALSO THE CHANCE THAT SOME LATE IN THE EVENING STORMS MAY
SPARK AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AROUND THE NEBRASKA BORDER. IN
MOST CASES, THE CHANCES FOR STORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER SEEM
RATHER LOW AT THIS POINT. BUT WE'LL SEE HOW THE LOW/FRONT
ACTUALLY PROGRESS THROUGH AND WHAT IS LEFT TO WORK WITH.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2026
SYNOPTICALLY, THE LONG TERM SETUP REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED. THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAINLY ZONAL. AS WE MOVE INTO
THE WEEKEND, GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE RIDGE OF THE WESTERN US WILL
BEGIN TO RE-AMPLIFY AND PROPOGATE TO THE EAST. THIS WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSITION THE FLOW TO BE FROM THE NORTHWEST. DURING THIS PERIOD
THERE WILL BE A FEW SHORTWAVES THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
CREATING SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
WEDNESDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE THE "COOLEST" OF THE
PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S. A WARMING TREND WILL
BEGIN ON THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. BY FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY, THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 90S. ALSO, SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE LOCALIZED HIGHS
REACHING TRIPLE DIGITS. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN CALM TO BREEZY
THROUGHOUT MID WEEK TO THE WEEKEND. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO MAINLY STAY ABOVE 20% EXCEPT FOR FRIDAY WERE
EASTERN COLORADO COULD SEE VALUES IN THE HIGH TEENS TO LOW 20S.
MOVING TO PRECIPITATION, THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SHORTWAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1111 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2026
FOR KGLD & KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ROUGHLY
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 10 KTS THROUGH THE NIGHT, THEN
STRENGTHEN TO 15-20 KTS BY 18Z. GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE.
WINDS MAY THEN SLIGHTLY LOWER BY SUNSET, BUT A POTENTIAL LOW
LEVEL JET COULD CAUSE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD (CLOSE TO 06Z MONDAY).
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...HOLDREN
AVIATION...KAK
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