508
FXUS63 KGLD 021905
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
105 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ONE MORE HOT DAY ON MONDAY WITH LOWER 100S, THEN TEMPERATURES
COOL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY INTO THE 80S.
- STORM CHANCES RETURN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH ADDITIONAL
STORMS CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2026
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS WILL FORCE THE RIDGE TO RETREAT
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS WILL OPEN THE
DOOR TO DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE AND DAILY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR MONDAY, A HOT AND DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT, TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 100S, WILL PROMOTE DCAPE VALUES UP TO 2500 J/KG BY
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IN NORTHEAST COLORADO
AFTER 21Z, THEN SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IN THE EARLY EVENING, GRADUALLY WEAKENING
AND FINALLY DISSIPATING BY 06Z. INITIAL STORMS IN COLORADO AND
ADJACENT COUNTIES IN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA WILL POSE A LIMITED
THREAT OF WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH AND LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT ALONG
WITH A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM, BUT BETTER INSTABILITY
WILL BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND CIN WILL BE HIGH BEHIND IT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
SCENARIO FOR TUESDAY NIGHT SOMEWHAT MORE COMPLICATED. STORMS
THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF SOUTHERN COLORADO AND
ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE
EVENING. THESE WILL BE SURFACE BASED AND POSSIBLY CLIP AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 96 THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THERE
IS A LOW RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THOSE STORMS. THERE IS
ALSO A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET, PEAKING
OVERNIGHT AT UP TO 50 KTS, OVER THE SHALLOW, COOLER UPSLOPE AIR
MASS AT THE SURFACE. THE ACCOMPANYING ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY RESULT
IN A FEW ELEVATED STORMS OVERNIGHT, MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70. MUCAPE IS FAIRLY LIMITED AT 500-1000 J/KG, BUT MAY SEE SOME
SMALL HAIL WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS OVERNIGHT. THAT ACTIVITY WILL
GET SHUNTED EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET WEAKENS AFTER 12Z.
AFTER MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS, WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL TRY TO
CLEAR SOUTH TO NORTH WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S, BUT MAY ONLY
SEE 70S IN THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER AREA WHERE CLOUDS LINGER
THE LONGEST. OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LINGERING IN SOUTHEAST
COLORADO, AND NAM WANTS TO DEVELOP CONVECTION THERE IN THE
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH IN THE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP, THEY WOULD MOVE EAST INTO
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH NOT AS
STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS NIGHT, THERE IS A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET PRESENT WHICH COULD MAINTAIN CONVECTION DUE TO ASSOCIATED
ISENTROPIC LIFT. GFS DOES SHOW MUCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT, SO A FEW ELEVATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH A RISK OF SMALL HAIL.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2026
SYNOPTICALLY, THE LONG TERM SETUP REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED. THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAINLY ZONAL. AS WE MOVE INTO
THE WEEKEND, GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE RIDGE OF THE WESTERN US WILL
BEGIN TO RE-AMPLIFY AND PROPOGATE TO THE EAST. THIS WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSITION THE FLOW TO BE FROM THE NORTHWEST. DURING THIS PERIOD
THERE WILL BE A FEW SHORTWAVES THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
CREATING SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
WEDNESDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE THE "COOLEST" OF THE
PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S. A WARMING TREND WILL
BEGIN ON THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. BY FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY, THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 90S. ALSO, SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE LOCALIZED HIGHS
REACHING TRIPLE DIGITS. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN CALM TO BREEZY
THROUGHOUT MID WEEK TO THE WEEKEND. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO MAINLY STAY ABOVE 20% EXCEPT FOR FRIDAY WERE
EASTERN COLORADO COULD SEE VALUES IN THE HIGH TEENS TO LOW 20S.
MOVING TO PRECIPITATION, THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SHORTWAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2026
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...HOLDREN
AVIATION...024
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