789
FXUS63 KGLD 031909
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
109 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAVE A
MARGINAL RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS BLOWING DUST.
- MUCH COOLER ON TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S.
- STORMS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND
AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL
STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2026
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL FORCE A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CAMS
SHOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH
BY 21-22Z FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO, THEN
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE WEAKLY UNSTABLE, SBCAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG,
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 25 KTS. HOWEVER, THE HOT AND
DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT DCAPE OF UP TO 2000
J/KG. THE MAIN HAZARDS FROM THESE HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 60 MPH AND AREAS OF BLOWING DUST DUE TO
THE ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS OF THE PAST WEEK OR SO. STORMS
SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER 03Z AS THEY CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO EASTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT,
WILL SEE WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND NORTHEAST WINDS
GUSTING TO 25 KTS.
THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY
AND THE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 70S IN COLORADO TO THE MIDDLE 80S IN NORTHWEST
KANSAS. THE LOW LEVEL JET DOES STRENGTHEN TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT
DURING THE EVENING IT IS MOSTLY PARALLEL TO THE ISENTROPES WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LIFT. THAT DOES CHANGE OVERNIGHT WITH THE
LLJ BECOMING ORIENTED MORE WESTERLY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPING GENERALLY NORTH OF I-70. CAMS NOT IN PARTICULARLY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON EXTENT OF POSSIBLE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT,
RANGING FROM THE RFS WHICH SHOWS NOTHING DEVELOPING TO THE 3-KM
NAM WHICH SHOWS QUITE A BIT. HOWEVER, THE HRRR PRESENTS A FAIRLY
GOOD COMPROMISE AND SHOWS SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT AND SEEMS TO
FIT THE EXPECTED SCENARIO. HRRR SHOWS MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG
OVERNIGHT AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF AROUND 50 KTS. SO, THESE ELEVATED
STORMS WILL HAVE SOME POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MOSTLY SMALL HAIL,
WITH PERHAPS A STRONGER UPDRAFT CAPABLE OF UP TO QUARTER SIZE
GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
OVERNIGHT STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE
LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ENDS. SKIES WILL
GRADUALLY CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID 70S
IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE CLOUDS LINGER THE LONGEST TO THE
MIDDLE 80S IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THEY CLEAR THE SOONEST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, MODELS SUGGESTING ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN, BUT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WHERE MODEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS BY AROUND 06Z AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. RFS SHOWS A EAST-WEST ORIENTED BAND OF MUCAPE OF UP
TO 1200 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 50 KTS. SO SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT, ELEVATED STORMS CAPABLE OF UP TO QUARTER
SIZE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN COLORADO AND
KANSAS.
LINGERING STORMS THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD END BEFORE 18Z, WITH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY AND A BIT WARMER WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR
THE FOUR CORNERS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND IT OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE MAY INTERACT WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY IN EASTERN AREAS WHERE AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO BE UP TO 2500 J/KG WITH LITTLE CIN. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE AROUND 30 KTS. FORCING APPEAR TO BE ON THE WEAK SIDE AND
THERE IS NO DISCERNIBLE BOUNDARY TO FOCUS CONVECTIVE
INITIATION, THE OLD FRONT REMAINS WELL TO THE SOUTH, BUT COULD
SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING IN SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA (SOUTH OF I-70 AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83), WITH A LOW SEVERE RISK OF WIND AND HAIL. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH THE MEAN FLOW AND OUT OF THE
AREA RELATIVELY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2026
SYNOPTICALLY, FOR THE LONG TERM, NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED. THE RIDGE OFF
THE WEST COAST SHOULD BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE SLOWLY TO THE
EAST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BY FRIDAY, THE RIDGE BEGINS TO STALL
AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN US FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. DURING THIS PERIOD, OUR UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL START OFF AS
ZONAL AND BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO COME FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS
THE RIDGE MOVES.
OVERALL, IT LOOKS TO BE HOT AND DRY THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
STARTING THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM UP TO THE HIGH 80S TO
LOW 90S. THURSDAY HAS THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES, AROUND
10-20%, AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. FRIDAY THOUGH
SUNDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN HIGH 90S TO LOW
100S. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF REACHING
TRIPLE DIGITS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN MID-TEENS FOR AREAS WEST OF KS HWY 27. WIND GUSTS ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND OR LESS THAN 25 MPH. GFDI VALUES ARE IN
THE RANGE OF 20-40 WHICH WOULD PROMOTE HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE
GROWTH. WHILE THE WINDS DO NOT MET FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA, AND
THIS IS AROUND A WEEK OUT, IT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AND EYE ON
GIVEN THE HOT TEMPERATURES AND THE DRIER FUELS IN THE AREA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2026
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. THIS
EVENING, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. EITHER TERMINAL COULD SEE BRIEF GUSTS
OF 40 KTS OR HIGHER AND REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY IN BLOWING
DUST AS THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH (CONFIDENCE LEVEL AROUND 30%).
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND GUST UP TO 25 KTS BEHIND
THE FRONT AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WITH MVFR CEILINGS MAY ALSO DEVELOP, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW (LESS THAN 20%) IN DIRECTLY IMPACTING EITHER
TERMINAL.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...HOLDREN
AVIATION...024
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