784
FXUS63 KGLD 040625
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1225 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH COOLER ON TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S.
- THERE ARE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED T SCATTERED STORMS EACH
EVENING/OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AS A WHOLE THOUGH ARE A BIT LOWER AROUND 40% OR
LESS.
- WARMING BACK TOWARDS THE 100S OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1223 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST IN NORTHWEST KANSAS
AND PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO CLOSE TO THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. THIS MAIN
BATCH SHOULD FIZZLE OUT OR MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 3AM. THIS DOESN'T
MEAN WE'LL BE FINISHED THOUGH AS THE STORMS HAVE MOISTENED THE
ENVIRONMENT WHILE THE FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH AND WITH STORM
OUTFLOWS LINGERING. IT WOULDN'T BE UNREASONABLE FOR POP UP SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THANKFULLY, THESE SHOULD BE SUB-SEVERE WITH MOST
OF THE INSTABILITY IN THE AREA USED UP. WITH THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS
AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 60S
AND 70S THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. MEANWHILE AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH, WINDS HAVE BEEN STRENGTHENING ON THE BACKSIDE. SPEEDS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT SHOULD REACH 15-30 MPH WITH GUSTS
OF 20-40 MPH. IT WOULDN'T BE UNREASONABLE FOR A FEW GUSTS TO 50 MPH
RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE AS THE INVERSION BEGINS TO LIFT AND THE FRONT
PUSHES OFF.
FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS, WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENS. WHILE THE LOW MAY WEAKEN OR BECOME MORE
BROAD, IT MAY STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO HELP TRANSPORT SOME MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA AND PROVIDE SOME LIFT. COMBINING THIS WITH THE BROAD
TROUGHING OVER THE PLAINS, THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
THAT FORM THROUGH THE DAY. THEY SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT SHORT LIVED
THOUGH WITH EARLY CLOUD COVER LIMITING INSTABILITY. THE CLOUD COVER
IS ALSO FORECAST TO HELP KEEP THE AREA COOL WITH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S/70S THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. MOST OF THE
AREA SHOULD MAX OUT IN THE 70S, MAYBE THE LOW 80S IF THE CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION CLEARS OUT EARLY.
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, SHOWERS AND STORMS
COULD FORM ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE. THE CURRENT CONSENSUS IS THAT THE LOW SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS THAT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY MISSES THE
AREA TO THE SOUTH. IF IT DID SHIFT, LOCALES ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 40 COULD SEE SOME PRECIPITATION WITH A LOW RISK FOR HAIL
AROUND AN INCH IN SIZE, AND MAYBE A GUST OR TWO AROUND 60-70 MPH.
ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS
LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE FROM A MIX OF SATURATING AIR, A POTENTIAL UPPER
SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH, AND A 700MB JET DEVELOPING AND CREATING
A CONVERGENCE ZONE AROUND THE NEBRASKA BORDER. IF THE CONDITIONS DO
ALIGN, THE STORMS SHOULD FORM ALONG THE EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET
AND MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AROUND 1-1.5" WITH 1000 J/KG OF
MUCAPE AND 0-6KM SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS. ANY SHIFT THOUGH IN THE
SHORTWAVE OR IF THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH MAY CAUSE THE
WHOLE SET UP TO FAIL. PRIOR CONVECTION AND OUTFLOWS MAY ALSO
INTERFERE. THIS LEADS TO SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE THAT ANYTHING
WOULD FORM OR BE STRONG, BUT WE'LL SEE HOW THIS ALL EVOLVES.
OTHERWISE, WINDS SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES
COOL INTO THE 50S AND 60S.
WEDNESDAY, THE MORNING WILL BE A BIT DEPENDENT ON IF STORMS FIRE UP
OVER THE PRIOR NIGHT. IF THEY DID, THEY COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING HOURS FOR THE NORTH. THEY WOULDN'T LIKELY BE SEVERE, BUT
WOULD SLOW HOW QUICKLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WARM.
OTHERWISE, ANOTHER RELATIVELY MILD DAY IS FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
THE PLAINS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THE EAST AS
BROAD LOW PRESSURE SEEMS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO.
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT, ANOTHER LOW LEVEL JET IS
POSSIBLE, THOUGH LIKELY MUCH FURTHER SOUTH AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA. WITH THIS, THE CHANCE FOR
OVERNIGHT STORMS IS FORECAST TO BE MORE SOUTH OF I-70 AND MAYBE
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA. IF IT STORMS DO FORM, THEY'LL RUN
THE SAME LOW RISK FOR LARGE HAIL IN A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT TO
TUESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY, THE DAYTIME HOURS ARE FORECAST TO LIKELY HAVE CLEAR SKIES
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TOWARDS 90 AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO
REBUILD AND MOVE INTO THE PLAINS. THAT BEING SAID, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF THE UPPER LOW AROUND THE NORTHERN
UNITED STATE BORDER POTENTIALLY DEEPENING AND DIVING A BIT SOUTH. IF
SO, THIS MAY SUPPRESS THE RIDGE A BIT AND KEEP TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. OTHERWISE, THE
CHANCES FOR WINDS ABOVE 15 MPH AND PRECIPITATION SEEM LOW WITH A
BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. EVEN IF
THE UPPER LOW DOES DIVE SOUTH, THERE IS ONLY A MODEST INCREASE
IN THE SURFACE LOW STRENGTH IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. IT SEEMS OUR
CHANCES FOR ANY STORMS WOULD GO FROM AROUND 15% TO 30% IF THAT
WERE TO OCCUR WITH A BETTER FORCING MECHANISM IN THE AREA.
OTHERWISE, THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN CLEAR WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTH HELPING TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS SHAPING UP TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM FOR THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA). A PERSISTENT WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE 90S ON FRIDAY AND CLIMB TO TRIPLE
DIGITS SATURDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DUE
TO WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSAGES. PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) IS
ONLY AROUND 15% FOR THE NORTHWEST CWA, SO LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HOT
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR FOR THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK. CURRENTLY, FUELS ARE DRY THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE CWA.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES ARE FORECAST IN THE LOW 20S FOR THE
WESTERN CWA SATURDAY AND SLOWLY CREEP DOWN TO THE MID TO HIGH TEENS
THROUGH MONDAY. AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FOR
THE WESTERN CWA, BUT LOWEST RH VALUES AND STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ARE
NOT FORECAST TO COINCIDE, BUT A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE DRY FUELS
AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD, MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW A STRONG RIDGE
SET UP OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA MONDAY AND REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGHOUT
NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2026
FOR KGLD & KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF CEILINGS DROPPING INTO THE
1000-2000FT RANGE BETWEEN 09-18Z, ESPECIALLY AT KGLD. OTHERWISE,
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONG FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. BE ALERT FOR GUSTS POTENTIALLY
REACHING 30-40 KTS AROUND SUNRISE. FINALLY, ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEY SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY AND MAYBE ONE OR TWO WOULD MOVE OVER EITHER
TERMINAL. STILL, BE ALERT FOR POP UP STORMS. A BETTER CHANCE IS
FORECAST AFTER 03Z WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY AROUND KMCK.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...KAK
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