888
FXUS63 KGLD 050609
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1209 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING,
AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
- WARMING BACK TOWARDS THE 100S OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 115 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2026
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
DOMINANT UPPER FEATURE. AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADA HAS FLATTENED THE RIDGE ENOUGH SUCH
THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTER
THAT, THE RIDGE STARTS TO AMPLIFY AGAIN HERALDING A RETURN TO
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS BEGINNING ON FRIDAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH. THESE ARE LIKELY ELEVATED AND TAPPING INTO WEAK MUCAPE
OF AROUND 500 J/KG AND DO NOT POSE A SEVERE RISK. TONIGHT, MAY
SEE A FEW ISOLATED STORMS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN THE EVENING
ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET, ALSO ELEVATED BUT WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN MUCAPE TO AROUND 500-1000 J/KG. BETTER CHANCES
WILL PROBABLY BE OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER SUBTLE SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED
WITH THE COOL BOUNDARY LAYER CUT OFF, BUT WITH STILL INCREASING
MUCAPE, UP TO 1200 J/KG IS FORECAST IN NEBRASKA, MAY SEE A LOW
RISK OF MAINLY PEA SIZE HAIL, PERHAPS UP TO QUARTER SIZE IF A
STRONGER UPDRAFT CAN BE MAINTAINED. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL SEVERE
RISK REMAINS LOW. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE UPPER WAVE. LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING, WITH PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE WITH THE SURFACE NEAR SATURATED.
AFTER THE MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE OUT, CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO ERODE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO TODAY,
TEMPERATURES MAY BE HELD IN CHECK DEPENDING ON WHEN THE CLOUDS
CLEAR. HIGHS WILL SOMEWHAT OPTIMISTICALLY REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS, PERHAPS SOME LOWS 80S SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40
WHERE CLOUDS CLEAR EARLIEST. WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THERE ARE BETTER
MODEL INDICATIONS THAT THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE ACTIVE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 AFTER ABOUT 03Z AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THEY SHOW AN EAST TO WEST ORIENTED BAND OF MUCAPE OF 1000-1500
J/KG SURGING NORTHWARD, ALONG WITH 50-60 KTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. THESE WILL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN BE ELEVATED WITH TOO MUCH
CIN TO OVERCOME AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL
PARAMETERS MAY SEE A RISK OF HAIL TO QUARTER SIZE OR HIGHER
WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS. CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS 12Z AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND BACKS TO
WESTERLY.
ON THURSDAY, SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT 60+ DEW POINTS INTO
THE AREA, WITH THE REFS SHOWING MODERATE INSTABILITY OF UP TO
2000 J/KG IN KANSAS IN NEBRASKA BY THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS. FORCING IS RATHER WEAK, WITH PERHAPS
AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. CAMS SHOW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN WESTERN NEBRASKA, PROBABLY
SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT, WHICH MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING BUT WEAKEN BY 03Z BEFORE REACHING SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. OTHER STORMS DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE AREA ALONG THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BUT THE LACK OF A LOW LEVEL JET THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL INHIBIT ANY NORTHERLY DEVELOPMENT. SO FOR THE MOMENT THE
AREA APPEARS TO MISS OUT ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, THOUGH I WOULD
KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL SUPERCELLS TO THE NORTH WHICH CAN
PERSIST LONGER THAN THE MODELS SUGGEST IN NORTHWEST FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH HIGHS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
IN THE LOWER 90S.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER, THE RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ON FRIDAY
WHICH WILL END THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR HIGHS. AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY MINIMUMS FALL INTO THE TEENS IN COLORADO, BUT CURRENTLY
LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST SO NOT EXPECTING ANY FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 138 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS SHAPING UP TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM FOR THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA). A PERSISTENT WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE HIGH 90S TO
100S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. TUESDAY IS LOOKING SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE IN THE 90S FOR
THE CWA.
FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR FOR THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK. CURRENTLY, FUELS ARE DRY THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE CWA.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES ARE FORECAST IN THE LOW 20S FOR THE
WESTERN CWA SATURDAY AND SLOWLY CREEP DOWN TO THE MID TO HIGH TEENS
THROUGH MONDAY. AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FOR
THE WESTERN CWA, BUT LOWEST RH VALUES AND STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ARE
NOT FORECAST TO COINCIDE. A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE DRY FUELS AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.
TUESDAY, A RIDGE BUILDING WEST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN WILL HELP
TRANSITION OUR REGION TO MORE OF A NORTHWEST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. WE
COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
DUE TO THE INCREASED UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FROM A WEAK JET STREAK
OVERHEAD. PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) ARE AROUND 30-40% FOR
THE CWA. MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE AND WHEN THE RIDGE WEST
OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL SET UP AFTER TUESDAY. IF IT ENDS UP
SETTING UP OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA, WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1208 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2026
KGLD: METARS INDICATE THAT IFR, AND NEAR LIFR CONDITIONS ARE IN
PLACE. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES LOWER NEAR THE DEW POINT. THE PATCHY
NATURE OF THE FOG WILL MAKE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TRANSIENT NEAR
KGLD. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO A POSSIBILITY, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. FOG AND CEILINGS MAY NOT LIFT UNTIL THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS WHEN DIURNAL HEATING BEGINS TO DOMINATE.
KMCK: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER KMCK. CEILINGS ARE
CURRENTLY LOWER THAN GUIDANCE INDICATES, SO IFR CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE AIRPORT AS LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 08
AND 16Z IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW LEVEL JET AT 700 MB. LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 12Z HAS INTRODUCED A PROB30, BUT
WITH THE CAVEAT THAT LIFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP IF THUNDERSTORMS
OCCUR. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPROVING AROUND 18Z,
BECOMING VFR BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...DAVIS
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