178
FXUS63 KGLD 050637
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1237 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG AND PATCHY DENSE FOG POTENTIAL THROUGH THE MORNING AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN TONIGHT.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY.
- CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OR
TWO OF LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE INTO THE MORNING AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEVERE CHANCES ARE VERY LOW HOWEVER.
- WARMING BACK TOWARDS THE 100S OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1231 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2026
NORTHWEST SURFACE AND MID LEVEL FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. AN
INITIAL SHORTWAVE COMING OFF OF THE ROCKIES IS LEADING TO SOME
SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO CURRENTLY. A 700MB
JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND BEGIN INTERACTING WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE WHICH IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A
DUNDY TO GOVE COUNTY LINE. OVERALL, AM ANTICIPATING SUB SEVERE
STORMS WITH ONLY LIGHTNING AND DOWNPOURS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS DUE
TO MINIMAL MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG AND MEAGER 700-500 MB LAPSE
RATES OF AROUND 7 C/KM AND WORSE 850-799MB LAPSE RATES OF 4-5
C/KM. I CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF INSTANCE OR TWO OF
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AS STORMS FORM IF WE CAN GET A STRONG ENOUGH
OF AN UPDRAFT TO OCCUR. CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRING
IS CURRENTLY LESS THAN 15%.
FOG IS ALSO FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA
AS WELL DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS.
CURRENTLY AM NOT OVERALL CONCERNED ABOUT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
DUE TO LOW SURFACE TO 1KM MIXING RATIOS BUT STILL CAN'T RULE OUT
SOME PATCHY AREAS OF HALF MILE OR LESS VISIBILITIES. THE HRRR
AND LAMP VISIBILITY GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN HIGHLIGHTING
EASTERN COLORADO FOR DENSE FOG WHICH IS INTERESTING TO SAY THE
LEAST AS TYPICAL MORE MOIST GUIDANCE IS LESS BULLISH ON DENSE
FOG. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG IS CURRENTLY AROUND 20% AT
THIS TIME WITH CONFIDENCE IN FOG OF 2- 6SM AROUND 80%.
A SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE AND ENDING CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH THE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RAP CROSS SECTIONS CONTINUES
TO HAVE SATURATED LOW LEVELS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON FOR
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA ALONG WITH WEAK OMEGA AROUND -1
MICROBARS ALONG WITH A LITTLE SURFACE BASE CAPE WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE. DUE TO THE
CONCERNS OF CLOUD COVER HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE
DAY AS MOST GUIDANCE HAS GOTTEN ON THAT SAME TREND AS WELL.
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AM WATCHING ANOTHER 700MB
SHORTWAVE DEVELOP ALONG WITH A NOSE OF A 700MB JET IN SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE AGAIN FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ALONG THESE FEATURES. THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES ON HOW
FAR NORTH THE LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP WHICH WILL DETERMINE IF THE
CWA IS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS. SHOULD THE STORMS DEVELOP IN
OUR AREA THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS BETTER THAN WHAT IT IS
TONIGHT WITH MORE MUCAPE SIMILAR SHEAR AND BETTER LAPSE RATES
THAT WOULD SUPPORT HAIL OF 1-1.5 INCHES. SHOULD THESE STORMS
FORM IT WOULD NOT BE UNTIL AROUND 10PM MOUNTAIN AND POSSIBLY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. NORTH OF THE STORMS HAVE ANOTHER
CONCERN FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. SURFACE TO 1KM MIXING RATIOS ARE
HIGHER SO HAVE BIT OF A MORE CONCERN FOR A BETTER COVERAGE OF
FOG AND PERHAPS DENSE FOG.
THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE A BIT WARMER AS A MID LEVEL HIGH BEGINS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND EXPAND UP INTO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT
FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE DAY IS TOO REMAIN DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A 700MB
JET FORMING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. DO NOTICE A SUBTLE
DISTURBANCE IS NOTED UPSTREAM ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE
SOME GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SOME STORM DEVELOPMENT MOVING TO THE
SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA. OUR 850MB LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE WHICH DOES BRING SOME HINTS THAT PERHAPS THESE STORMS COULD
SURVIVE DOWN INTO THE NEBRASKA COUNTIES IN OUR CWA. IF THIS WERE TO
BE THE CASE THEN SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BECOME A CONCERN WITH SOME
SUPERCELL POTENTIAL GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR AND CAPE BEING
DEPICTED IN GUIDANCE. THIS IS CURRENTLY A LOW PROBABILITY SCENARIO
BUT WILL BE SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN
UPCOMING SHIFTS.
FRIDAY, THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY LEADING TO A CONTINUED
WARMING OF TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ALONG WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. NAM SURFACE TO 30MB AGL DEW POINTS CONTINUES TO
SUGGESTS THAT MOIST AIR REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IF SO
COULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10-15 MPH
AND WITH THE LACK OF ANY JETS ALOFT EVEN IF THE DEEPEST OF
MIXING COULD OCCUR AND DRIER AIR COULD MIX DOWN FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WOULD REMAIN MINIMAL.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 138 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS SHAPING UP TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM FOR THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA). A PERSISTENT WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE HIGH 90S TO
100S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. TUESDAY IS LOOKING SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE IN THE 90S FOR
THE CWA.
FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR FOR THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK. CURRENTLY, FUELS ARE DRY THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE CWA.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES ARE FORECAST IN THE LOW 20S FOR THE
WESTERN CWA SATURDAY AND SLOWLY CREEP DOWN TO THE MID TO HIGH TEENS
THROUGH MONDAY. AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FOR
THE WESTERN CWA, BUT LOWEST RH VALUES AND STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ARE
NOT FORECAST TO COINCIDE. A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE DRY FUELS AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.
TUESDAY, A RIDGE BUILDING WEST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN WILL HELP
TRANSITION OUR REGION TO MORE OF A NORTHWEST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. WE
COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
DUE TO THE INCREASED UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FROM A WEAK JET STREAK
OVERHEAD. PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) ARE AROUND 30-40% FOR
THE CWA. MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE AND WHEN THE RIDGE WEST
OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL SET UP AFTER TUESDAY. IF IT ENDS UP
SETTING UP OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA, WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1208 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2026
KGLD: METARS INDICATE THAT IFR, AND NEAR LIFR CONDITIONS ARE IN
PLACE. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES LOWER NEAR THE DEW POINT. THE PATCHY
NATURE OF THE FOG WILL MAKE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TRANSIENT NEAR
KGLD. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO A POSSIBILITY, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. FOG AND CEILINGS MAY NOT LIFT UNTIL THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS WHEN DIURNAL HEATING BEGINS TO DOMINATE.
KMCK: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER KMCK. CEILINGS ARE
CURRENTLY LOWER THAN GUIDANCE INDICATES, SO IFR CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE AIRPORT AS LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 08
AND 16Z IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW LEVEL JET AT 700 MB. LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 12Z HAS INTRODUCED A PROB30, BUT
WITH THE CAVEAT THAT LIFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP IF THUNDERSTORMS
OCCUR. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPROVING AROUND 18Z,
BECOMING VFR BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...DAVIS
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