027
FXUS63 KGLD 051922
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
122 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG AND PATCHY DENSE FOG POTENTIAL THROUGH THE MORNING AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN TONIGHT.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY.
- CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OR
TWO OF LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE INTO THE MORNING AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEVERE CHANCES ARE VERY LOW HOWEVER.
- WARMING BACK TOWARDS THE 100S OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 115 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2026
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER UTAH WILL BE THE DOMINANT UPPER
FEATURE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WHILE IT DOES AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT,
ITS ORIENTATION IS SUCH THAT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN TO
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE AND LOW THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.
FOR TONIGHT, CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO THE LOW LEVEL JET. A 30
KT LLJ DEVELOPS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS EVENING AS WELL AS A
CONVERGENCE ZONE AT 700 MB WHICH LIFTS NORTH INTO AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 IN KANSAS AND COLORADO. CAMS DEVELOP ELEVATED
CONVECTION SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40 BY AROUND 03Z WHICH MOVES EAST
THROUGH ABOUT 09Z BEFORE DISSIPATING OR MOVING OUT OF THE AREA
BY 12Z. THIS IS THE SAME AREA THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL LAST NIGHT
IN A SIMILAR SITUATION. MORNING PRECIPITATION REPORTS FROM
COCORAHS WERE FAIRLY LIGHT, GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN
INCH, THROUGH SCOTT CITY DID REPORT NEAR 1". FOR TONIGHT, CAMS
SHOW SPOTTY AMOUNTS OF UP TO 0.50", SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
FLOODING CONCERNS. CAMS STILL SHOWING UP TO 1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE
IN A NARROW BAND WHERE THE CONVECTION DEVELOPS, AS WELL AS 50
KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR, SO CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT PEA TO
PERHAPS QUARTER SIZE HAIL IF A STRONGER UPDRAFT DEVELOPS.
HOWEVER, PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW. AREAS OF FOG
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT IT MAY BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AND DENSE AT TIMES.
AFTER MORNING FOG AND CLOUDS BURN OFF, THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL
BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. CAMS
HAVE GONE DRY DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. THIS
CAN PROBABLY BE ATTRIBUTED TO SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES AS THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AND THE ABSENCE OF A LOW LEVEL JET THURSDAY
NIGHT.
ON FRIDAY, DESPITE THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN,
CAMS WANT TO INITIATE ISOLATED CONVECTION ON THE DRY LINE IN
NORTHEAST COLORADO. THAT AREA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF
THE BETTER INSTABILITY IN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA, BUT THE REFS DOES
SHOW UP TO 1000 J/KG IN COLORADO JUST ON THE MOIST SIDE OF THE
DRY LINE. THERE IS ALSO AROUND 35 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR DUE TO
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FORCING IS RATHER WEAK, WITH ONLY A
HINT OF AN UPPER SHORTWAVE, BUT IF SOMETHING CAN INITIATE THE
ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF A WIND AND HAIL RISK DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR THE COLORADO AND
KANSAS BORDER AREA. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM WITH HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE 90S.
ON SATURDAY, NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE
WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE EMBEDDED WAVE. AT THE SURFACE, THE DRY
LINE MOVES EAST TO ABOUT HIGHWAY 25 BUT MIXES OUT SOMEWHAT.
MODELS WANT TO DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, AND
THE RFS INITIATES CONVECTION THERE IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH MOVES
EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. FORECAST INSTABILITY IS WEAK TO
MODERATE AT BEST, BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR DOES INCREASE TO UP TO 40
KTS BY THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE THAT THERE WILL
BE ANY CONVECTION AT ALL GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND
OVERALL WEAK FORCING, BUT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH IN NORTHWEST FLOW
FOR AT LEAST A LOW SEVERE RISK SHOULD SOMETHING DEVELOP.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO
LOWER 100S. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY MINIMUMS FALL INTO THE TEENS WEST
OF THE DRY LINE, LOWEST IN COLORADO, BUT WINDS ARE MORE
MARGINAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, HOWEVER THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST ELEVATED CONDITIONS IN THOSE AREAS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 138 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS SHAPING UP TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM FOR THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA). A PERSISTENT WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE HIGH 90S TO
100S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. TUESDAY IS LOOKING SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE IN THE 90S FOR
THE CWA.
FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR FOR THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK. CURRENTLY, FUELS ARE DRY THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE CWA.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES ARE FORECAST IN THE LOW 20S FOR THE
WESTERN CWA SATURDAY AND SLOWLY CREEP DOWN TO THE MID TO HIGH TEENS
THROUGH MONDAY. AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FOR
THE WESTERN CWA, BUT LOWEST RH VALUES AND STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ARE
NOT FORECAST TO COINCIDE. A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE DRY FUELS AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.
TUESDAY, A RIDGE BUILDING WEST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN WILL HELP
TRANSITION OUR REGION TO MORE OF A NORTHWEST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. WE
COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
DUE TO THE INCREASED UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FROM A WEAK JET STREAK
OVERHEAD. PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) ARE AROUND 30-40% FOR
THE CWA. MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE AND WHEN THE RIDGE WEST
OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL SET UP AFTER TUESDAY. IF IT ENDS UP
SETTING UP OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA, WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1047 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2026
LIGHT UPSLOPE WINDS WILL RESULT IN THE MVFR CEILINGS PERSISTING
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. A RETURN TO VFR
IS EXPECTED AROUND 22-23Z. TONIGHT, THE LOW CEILINGS WILL RETURN
TO BOTH TERMINAL BY AROUND 09Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. A PERIOD OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE
AROUND SUNRISE, ESPECIALLY AT KGLD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...024
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