146
FXUS63 KGLD 201705
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1105 AM MDT THU AUG 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER A LIMITED PORTION OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, MAINLY NORTH OF I-70
AND EAST OF HWY 83 AFTER SUNSET. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN
HAZARD. A FEW INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN THE GOODLAND CWA.
- A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFT-EVE, MAINLY NORTH
OF I-70 IN KS AND NE. LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH ARE
THE MAIN HAZARD. A FEW INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE IN THE GOODLAND CWA.
- WARMING TREND THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 100 DEGREES ON FRIDAY IN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU AUG 20 2026
OVERVIEW: THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL REMAIN SITUATED ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, IN NW FLOW
ALOFT.
TODAY-TONIGHT: ONGOING CONVECTION AT 0830Z WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN/DIMINISH AND SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
SPEEDY NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE
TRI-STATE AREA TODAY.. AS AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
BROADENS AND EXTENDS EASTWARD OVER ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE
HIGH PLAINS. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE OR NO IN-SITU
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES (AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL) LARGELY
TIED TO UPSTREAM CONVECTION IN NEBRASKA. BOTH THE HRRR AND NAM
NEST SUGGEST THAT SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION IN CENTRAL
NEBRASKA (ALONG/NORTH OF I-80) THIS AFTERNOON COULD EVOLVE INTO
A CLUSTER THAT PROPAGATES SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH-CENTRAL KS LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, POTENTIALLY BRINGING DAMAGING WINDS
TO NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE GOODLAND CWA AFTER ~03Z / 9 PM
MDT. GIVEN THAT ONGOING CONVECTION AND CONVECTIVE REMNANTS/
OUTFLOW THIS MORNING MAY ALTER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GOODLAND CWA THIS AFTERNOON.. AND THAT
PRECIP CHANCES AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ARE EXPECTED TO BE
A FUNCTION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND EVOLUTION (I.E. WHETHER OR NOT AN
ORGANIZED CLUSTER OR LINE OF STORMS WILL EMERGE FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA).
FRIDAY: SPEEDY NW FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT FURTHER TO THE NORTH
AND EAST AS THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE CONTINUES TO BROADEN AND
EXTEND EASTWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT CONDITIONS
SIMILAR TO TODAY, ALBEIT WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE WITH REGARD TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE.
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE EXPANDING EASTWARD OVER THE TRI-
STATE AREA, EXPECT A LOWER POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT WED AUG 19 2026
STARTING THE EXTENDED PERIOD SUNDAY, HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO BE SITUATED OVER THE SW CONUS AND LOOKS TO REMAIN SIMILAR
PLACED THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S THAT ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST SEEM REASONABLE
AT THIS TIME AS THE 594 DAM PORTION OF THE HIGH IS CURRENTLY
DEPICTED TO REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE SW CONUS. IF THE HIGH CAN MOVE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST
THEN SOUTHWESTERLY MAY BE ABLE TO OCCUR WHICH WOULD RAISE OUR
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. WINDS MAY BE
A LITTLE BREEZIER AS A 15-20 KNOT 850MB JET IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE. A LACK OF 700MB JET BRINGS MY DOUBTS TO
HIGHER WIND POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME AND ANY WIND WOULD MAINLY
SUSTAINED.
THE POSITION OF THE HIGH CONTINUES TO KEEP THE AREA IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS WELL THROUGH THE PERIOD ALLOWING FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR NEAR DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. THIS PATTER IN NOTORIOUS FOR LITTLE
WAVES ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH TO GIVE US STORM
CHANCES AND WITH GUIDANCE CURRENTLY INDICATING RAINFALL
POTENTIAL IT DOES MAKE ME CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC. HOWEVER THOUGH
IF THAT HIGH WERE TO SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST WHICH SOME
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THEN THAT WOULD GREATLY LIMIT ANY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL.CURRENTLY BASED ON ENSEMBLE QPF DATA IT
SEEMS THAT TUESDAY MAY HAVE THE RELATIVELY HIGHER POTENTIAL AS
GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY DEPICTING A STRONGER WAVE COMING OFF OF
THE ROCKIES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MDT THU AUG 20 2026
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...024
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