257
FXUS63 KGLD 201852
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1252 PM MDT THU AUG 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CONFIDENCE IN AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK TONIGHT FOR ANY
STORMS WHICH MAY DEVELOP ALONG A FRONT IN NEBRASKA AND THEN
MOVE SOUTH. IF STORMS DEVELOP, LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR WIND AND HAIL
WITH STRONGER STORMS.
- WEEKEND PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY AT NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVING OUT OF COLORADO. SEVERE CHANCES WILL BE LOW WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.
- HEAT PEAKS ON FRIDAY, THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MDT THU AUG 20 2026
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR TODAY, CENTERED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS. HARD TO FIND ANY EMBEDDED WAVES ROTATING AROUND IT, IN
FACT HEIGHTS ARE RISING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
ADJACENT PLAINS AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES. THERE WILL BE A COLD
FRONT TRAVERSING THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IT STALLS OUT
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION
WILL INITIATE ON THE FRONT AND MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING. MOST CAMS SHOW INITIATION OCCURRING IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND FURTHER EAST, BUT NOT ON THE WESTERN END OF THE
FRONT. IF THAT HOLDS, THERE WILL NOT BE ANY CONVECTION IN OUR
AREA. THE LOW LEVEL JET DOES BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AFTER 06Z AND
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOMETHING TO DEVELOP, BUT NOT
OVERLY OPTIMISTIC AT THIS TIME WITH THE LACK OF SUPPORT FROM THE
CAMS. ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS REMAIN SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE,
ESPECIALLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR, BUT SURFACE CIN BECOMES PROHIBITIVE
AFTER 03Z SO STORMS WOULD BE ELEVATED. MUCAPE IS AROUND
1500-2000 J/KG THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT, SO PERHAPS A
MARGINAL HAIL RISK IF SOMETHING SHOULD DEVELOP.
ON FRIDAY THE RIDGE ELONGATES SOMEWHAT AND THE AXIS RUNS THE
LENGTH OF THE ROCKIES FROM MONTANA TO COLORADO. THIS ORIENTATION
RESULTS IN MORE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS AND OPENS
THE DOOR TO ANY EMBEDDED WEAK WAVES TO PROVIDE SYNOPTIC LIFT.
THE SURFACE FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, BUT THE LEE TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE KANSAS AND
COLORADO BORDER AND WOULD BE A POSSIBLE AREA FOR CONVECTION TO
INITIATE. THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE NEAR
THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER BY AROUND 06Z AND THEN MOVE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE WEAK TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE, GENERALLY
1000-2000 J/KG BUT WITH SOME POCKETS UP TO 3000 J/KG, WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR 30-40 KTS. CAMS SHOW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT IN EASTERN AREAS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AGAIN
BECOMES ACTIVE AND MAINTAINS ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH A MARGINAL
HAIL RISK. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH THE FAVORABLE POST FRONTAL EASTERLY WINDS.
FOR THE WEEKEND, THE RIDGE MIGRATES EASTWARD ON SATURDAY WITH
THE AXIS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES
WILL INITIATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THIS REMNANT
CONVECTION WILL REACH AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT PROBABLY IN A MUCH WEAKENED
STATE. ON SUNDAY THE RIDGE MOVES SOUTH INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
AREA, WITH A ZONAL FLOW OVER THE TOP IN COLORADO AND KANSAS. AN
EMBEDDED WAVE WILL ONCE AGAIN INITIATE CONVECTION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FRONT RANGE, REACHING THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. IF IT
GETS HERE EARLY ENOUGH MAY SEE A LIMITED WIND AND HAIL THREAT,
MAINLY IN COLORADO, WHERE SBCAPE IS FORECAST UP TO 1500 J/KG AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 30 KTS. STORMS WILL TEND TO WEAKEN INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY A MARGINAL WIND THREAT.
TEMPERATURES PEAK ON FRIDAY WITH UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100, BUT THEN
WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
HIGHS AROUND 90 BOTH DAYS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT WED AUG 19 2026
STARTING THE EXTENDED PERIOD SUNDAY, HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO BE SITUATED OVER THE SW CONUS AND LOOKS TO REMAIN SIMILAR
PLACED THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S THAT ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST SEEM REASONABLE
AT THIS TIME AS THE 594 DAM PORTION OF THE HIGH IS CURRENTLY
DEPICTED TO REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE SW CONUS. IF THE HIGH CAN MOVE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST
THEN SOUTHWESTERLY MAY BE ABLE TO OCCUR WHICH WOULD RAISE OUR
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. WINDS MAY BE
A LITTLE BREEZIER AS A 15-20 KNOT 850MB JET IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE. A LACK OF 700MB JET BRINGS MY DOUBTS TO
HIGHER WIND POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME AND ANY WIND WOULD MAINLY
SUSTAINED.
THE POSITION OF THE HIGH CONTINUES TO KEEP THE AREA IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS WELL THROUGH THE PERIOD ALLOWING FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR NEAR DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. THIS PATTER IN NOTORIOUS FOR LITTLE
WAVES ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH TO GIVE US STORM
CHANCES AND WITH GUIDANCE CURRENTLY INDICATING RAINFALL
POTENTIAL IT DOES MAKE ME CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC. HOWEVER THOUGH
IF THAT HIGH WERE TO SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST WHICH SOME
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THEN THAT WOULD GREATLY LIMIT ANY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL.CURRENTLY BASED ON ENSEMBLE QPF DATA IT
SEEMS THAT TUESDAY MAY HAVE THE RELATIVELY HIGHER POTENTIAL AS
GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY DEPICTING A STRONGER WAVE COMING OFF OF
THE ROCKIES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MDT THU AUG 20 2026
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...024
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