321
FXUS63 KGLD 212234
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
434 PM MDT FRI AUG 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT AND
COVERAGE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS. OVERALL, SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY (THURSDAY).
- WEEKEND PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY AT NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVING OUT OF COLORADO. SEVERE CHANCES WILL BE LOW WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.
- HEAT PEAKS TODAY, THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT FRI AUG 21 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TODAY AROUND A RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS. WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY IS BUILDING IN THE
AREA WITH 40-50 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED
IN THIS PATTERN WITH THE CONVECTION, AND WILL PROBABLY DO SO
ONCE AGAIN TODAY, WITH A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS OFFERED BY THE
12Z CAMS. THEY ARE MISSING SOME OF THE MESOSCALE FEATURES WHICH
ULTIMATELY PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE, SUCH AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WHICH IS MOVING THROUGH AREAS NORTH OF I-70 ORIGINATING FROM
MORNING CONVECTION IN NEBRASKA. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE
DETAILS, GENERALLY EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. A
SUPERCELL WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS,
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO.
ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING,
ORIGINATING IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND SUSTAINED BY A STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET. IF THOSE STORMS DEVELOP AND CLUSTER, MAY SEE
ANOTHER RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. OVERNIGHT,
THE LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS ACTIVE WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT MAXIMIZED
OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA (EAST OF HIGHWAY 25). MAY SEE
ELEVATED STORMS DEVELOP LATE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE AREA WITH
A MARGINAL WIND AND HAIL THREAT AS MUCAPE LINGERS AT 1000-1500
J/KG. OUTFLOW FROM THOSE STORMS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA AROUND 12Z WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND BRIEFLY
GUSTY. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
FRONT AS WELL, MAINLY IN THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER AREA, BUT IT
WOULD BE TRANSIENT.
ON SATURDAY THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL RUN FROM EASTERN WYOMING
AND COLORADO TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON OVER THE ROCKIES AND FRONT RANGE WITH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW, THEN MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND
SPREADING INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE LATER ARRIVAL,
PROBABLY NOT UNTIL AFTER 03Z, STORMS WILL BE WEAKENING BUT MAY
STILL POSE A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THEY MAKE
THEIR WAY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT ON SUNDAY AND EXTENDS FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. ZONAL FLOW OVER THE TOP THROUGH
NORTHERN COLORADO WILL INITIATE CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND FRONT RANGE, AND ONCE AGAIN MAKE THE TREK ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THESE WILL ARRIVE SLIGHTLY
EARLIER, 00-02Z, IN FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO AND MAY STILL POSE A
MARGINAL WIND AND HAIL THREAT, BUT WITH ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY
FORECAST AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20 KTS, SEVERE CHANCES WILL
BE LOW. STORMS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING.
THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS A BIT ON MONDAY WITH HEIGHT RISES IN
COLORADO, AND THE ZONAL FLOW IS THROUGH SOUTHERN WYOMING.
FORECAST INSTABILITY IS WEAK AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG,
THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR DOES INCREASE TO AROUND 40 KTS. RFS
SUGGESTS A FEW SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING, MOVING EAST AND
THEN SOUTHEAST WITH THE MEAN FLOW MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IN AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WITH PERHAPS A
MARGINAL RISK FOR WIND AND HAIL.
THE TEMPERATURE TREND FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 202 PM MDT FRI AUG 21 2026
SYNOPTICALLY, A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE SW CONUS AND
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY. THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK, THERE APPEARS TO BE A FEW SHORTWAVES MOVING THOUGH THE
CWA, WHICH MAY BRING HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 90S FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA. THE "COOLEST" DAY FOR THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE
WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S, WHEREAS FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S. IF THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OR MOVE EASTWARD, AS GUIDANCE HINTS, HIGHER
TEMPERATURES COULD BE SEEN. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK ARE FORECAST
TO BE CALM TO BREEZY, AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE HIGHER THAN 30%, WHICH SHOULD HELP MINIMIZE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE PRESENT DURING THE WEEK. AS SOME
SHORTWAVES MOVE AROUND THE HIGH, THEY WILL LIKELY TO BE OUR MAIN
PRECIPITATION PRODUCERS. THE DAY CURRENTLY WITH THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS TUESDAY. GUIDANCE HINTS AT SOME VORTICITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
BOTH CAPE AND SHEAR APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS; HOWEVER,
SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES A MISMATCH BETWEEN HIGHER/LOWER CAPE AND
LOWER/HIGHER SHEAR, WHICH COULD LEAD TO LESS ORGANIZED STORMS.
LOOKING AT QPF, SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS, WHICH IS SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND AS WE
GET CLOSER TO TUESDAY. THE REST OF THE WEEK THERE IS ROUGHLY A
15-30% CHANCE OF POPS AS VARIOUS SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 432 PM MDT FRI AUG 21 2026
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
THIS EVENING, WITH LOW PROBABILITIES OF DIRECTLY IMPACTING
EITHER KGLD OR KMCK. TONIGHT, SOME MODEST INCREASE IN COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF A THUNDERSTORM WITH BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS AND REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO RAIN. OVERNIGHT, A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AROUND 12Z WITH SURFACE WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE EAST. THE FRONT MAY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG AND A
PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS, MAINLY AT KGLD, THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...HOLDREN
AVIATION...024
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page