637
FXUS63 KGLD 220832
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
232 AM MDT SAT AUG 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ONGOING SUB-SEVERE STORMS IN NORTHWEST KANSAS WILL TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY SUNRISE.
- STORMS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CO FRONT RANGE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL TRACK EAST TOWARD THE KS BORDER THIS EVENING.
A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND LOCALIZED
WIND GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN EASTERN CO
BETWEEN 7-11 PM MDT.
- EXPECT NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY FOLLOWED BY A MODEST
WARMING TREND ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT SAT AUG 22 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE(S) TO PRIOR FORECAST REASONING AND
EXPECTATIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
TODAY, THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL RUN FROM EASTERN WYOMING AND
COLORADO TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE ROCKIES AND FRONT RANGE WITH THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW, THEN MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND SPREADING INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT. WITH THE LATER ARRIVAL, PROBABLY NOT UNTIL AFTER
03Z, STORMS WILL BE WEAKENING BUT MAY STILL POSE A MARGINAL RISK
FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THEY MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT ON SUNDAY AND EXTENDS FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. ZONAL FLOW OVER THE TOP THROUGH
NORTHERN COLORADO WILL INITIATE CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND FRONT RANGE, AND ONCE AGAIN MAKE THE TREK ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THESE WILL ARRIVE SLIGHTLY
EARLIER, 00-02Z, IN FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO AND MAY STILL POSE A
MARGINAL WIND AND HAIL THREAT, BUT WITH ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY
FORECAST AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20 KTS, SEVERE CHANCES WILL
BE LOW. STORMS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING.
THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS A BIT ON MONDAY WITH HEIGHT RISES IN
COLORADO, AND THE ZONAL FLOW IS THROUGH SOUTHERN WYOMING.
FORECAST INSTABILITY IS WEAK AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG,
THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR DOES INCREASE TO AROUND 40 KTS. RFS
SUGGESTS A FEW SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING, MOVING EAST AND THEN
SOUTHEAST WITH THE MEAN FLOW MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WITH PERHAPS A MARGINAL
RISK FOR WIND AND HAIL.
THE TEMPERATURE TREND FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 202 PM MDT FRI AUG 21 2026
SYNOPTICALLY, A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE SW CONUS AND
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY. THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK, THERE APPEARS TO BE A FEW SHORTWAVES MOVING THOUGH THE
CWA, WHICH MAY BRING HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 90S
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. THE "COOLEST" DAY FOR THE PERIOD
LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S,
WHEREAS FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
90S. IF THE RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OR MOVE EASTWARD, AS
GUIDANCE HINTS, HIGHER TEMPERATURES COULD BE SEEN. WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK ARE FORECAST TO BE CALM TO BREEZY, AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER THAN 30%,
WHICH SHOULD HELP MINIMIZE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE PRESENT DURING THE WEEK. AS SOME
SHORTWAVES MOVE AROUND THE HIGH, THEY WILL LIKELY TO BE OUR MAIN
PRECIPITATION PRODUCERS. THE DAY CURRENTLY WITH THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS TUESDAY. GUIDANCE HINTS AT SOME
VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH CAPE AND SHEAR APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR
SEVERE STORMS; HOWEVER, SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES A MISMATCH
BETWEEN HIGHER/LOWER CAPE AND LOWER/HIGHER SHEAR, WHICH COULD
LEAD TO LESS ORGANIZED STORMS. LOOKING AT QPF, SOME GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS, WHICH
IS SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND AS WE GET CLOSER TO TUESDAY. THE
REST OF THE WEEK THERE IS ROUGHLY A 15-30% CHANCE OF POPS AS
VARIOUS SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT SAT AUG 22 2026
GLD: ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS OR FOG AN HOUR
OR TWO ON EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. LOW CONFIDENCE IN STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS IN VICINITY OF DECAYING
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL ~11Z. OTHERWISE, LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY OR VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME ESE OR SE AND
MODESTLY INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MCK: ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS OR FOG AN HOUR
OR TWO ON EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. LOW CONFIDENCE IN STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY OR VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME
ESE OR SE AND MODESTLY INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024/VINCENT
LONG TERM...HOLDREN
AVIATION...VINCENT
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