478
FXUS63 KGLD 231400
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
800 AM MDT SUN AUG 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS THIS EVENING AND MONDAY AFTERNOON. 1
INCH HAIL AND 65 MPH WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY, WITH ALL HAZARDS
POSSIBLE.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1207 AM MDT SUN AUG 23 2026
A 500 MB HIGH OVER NEW MEXICO PAIRED WITH A LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGIONS KEEPS THE TRI-STATE AREA UNDER FAIRLY PERSISTENT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL LET TEMPERATURES WARM UP INTO THE 90S,
POTENTIALLY BRIEFLY 100 DEGREES, OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MORE
IMPORTANTLY, THIS GIVE US DAILY CHANCE AT CONVECTION.
EARLY THIS MORNING IS A PRIME EXAMPLE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
PROVIDING ENOUGH FORCING FOR CONVECTION TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA. WE
ARE EXPECTING THIS CONVECTION TO LARGELY REMAIN SUB-SEVERE, HOWEVER
WE CANNOT FULLY RULE OUT A MICRO-BURST LEADING TO 70+ MPH WINDS OR
AN ISOLATED CELL PRODUCING 1+ INCH HAIL. THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE
THREATS TO COME TO FRUITION IS LESS THAN 10%. THERE IS A NEAR EQUAL
CHANCE FOR A LINE OF THESE STORMS TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA,
LEADING TO 1-3 INCHES OF LOCALIZED RAINFALL. MOST LIKELY, A LARGE
PORTION OF THE CWA WILL SEE A FEW HUNDREDTHS UP TO AN INCH IN SOME
LUCKY SPOTS.
BEHIND THE RAIN THIS MORNING, EASTERLY WINDS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH UP-
SLOPE COOLING TO PRODUCE SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE CWA. THERE'S
ONLY A ~10% CHANCE VISIBILITY DROP BELOW A MILE IN THE FOG, BUT
ISOLATED PATCHES OF DENSE FOG ARE NOT IMPOSSIBLE. THIS FOG AND SOME
LINGERING STRATUS WILL WORK TO STUNT MORNING WARMING, KEEPING
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S.
AROUND 0Z THIS AFTERNOON OUR NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE
ENTERING THE CWA FROM THE WEST FROM YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THERE LOOKS TO BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE AT SEVERE WEATHER WITH
THE SUNDAY EVENING CONVECTION. SCATTERED TO CLUSTERS OF SUPERCELLS
SEEMS MORE LIKELY. THE MORE ISOLATED A CELL IS, THE BETTER CHANCE IS
WILL HAVE TO BE SEVERE, BUT THERE'S A 60% CHANCE STORMS CLUSTER
TOGETHER EARLY AND WOULD LIKELY ONLY MUSTER 50-65 MPH WINDS AND 0.75-
1.25 INCH HAIL. IF AN ISOLATED CELL MATURES AHEAD OF OTHER
CONVECTION, WE COULD SEE 2.5 INCH HAIL, A MICROBURST OF 80 MPH, AND
A BRIEF TORNADO. POTENTIAL FOR THIS OCCURRING IS LESS THAN 5%. THERE
IS ALSO A 25% CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING FROM EITHER TRAINING STORMS
OR RIGHT/LEFT MOVING STORMS, AS THESE MOTIONS ARE AROUND 15-20 KTS.
THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF KS 27. ALL IN
ALL, STORMS ARE LIKELY, BUT THERE IS ONLY A SMALL, CONDITIONAL
THREAT OF HIGH-END SEVERE WEATHER.
CONVECTION LOOKS TO END AROUND 6-9Z, AND THEN TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
INTO THE MID 60S, AGAIN. CHANCES ARE LESS THAN 10% FOR FOG FORMATION
MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 90S
AS A WEAK 850 MB LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA, DRAWING MORE HOT,
SOUTHERLY WIND INTO THE CWA. THIS LOW WILL BE THE SOURCE OF OUR
CONVECTION POTENTIAL MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS IT BRINGS IN A
WEAK COLD FRONT. THIS CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY'S STORMS, BUT POTENTIALLY STARTING A COUPLE HOURS SOONER.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT SAT AUG 22 2026
SYNOPTICALLY, THE RIDGE TO THE WEST IS FORECAST TO MAINLY REMAIN
STATIONARY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, KEEPING US IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO AMPLIFY ON WEDNESDAY, AND BEGIN TO DE-AMPLIFY
COME FRIDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE US/CANADIAN BORDER.
SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND, INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 90S.
WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE "COOLEST" DAY, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO BE THE WARMEST, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LOCATIONS TO
REACH THE LOW 100S. IF THE RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD, THEN
HIGHER THAN FORECASTED TEMPERATURES COULD BE SEEN. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CALM TO BREEZY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY HOLD THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL, WITH POPS IN THE 20-50%
RANGE, AS SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. WHILE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS APPEAR
SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS, MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME
VARIABILITY IN CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES, WHICH COULD LEAD TO LESS
ORGANIZED STORMS AND REDUCED SEVERE CHANCES. PRECIPITATION CHANCE
THEN BEGINS TO TAPER OFF TO 5-15% FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1102 PM MDT SAT AUG 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR KGLD
AND KMCK, BUT WILL BE BROKEN UP BY SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AND SOME FOG AND STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE. KGLD
HAS A BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING STORMS AND STRATUS. ALSO AROUND
SUNRISE, SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GUSTING IN THE 20-30 KTS RANGE ARE
POSSIBLE. THIS MAY BRIEFLY MAKE THE FOG WORSE, BUT WILL CLEAR
US BACK OUT TO VFR NO LATER THAN 18Z.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...HOLDREN
AVIATION...CA
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