767
FXUS63 KGLD 251611
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1011 AM MDT TUE AUG 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EARLY MORNING STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, LIKELY REMAINING SUB-
SEVERE.
- BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING, WITH ALL
HAZARDS POSSIBLE.
- SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1230 AM MDT TUE AUG 25 2026
A 500 MB HIGH OVER NEW MEXICO PAIRED WITH A LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGIONS KEEPS THE TRI-STATE AREA UNDER FAIRLY PERSISTENT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL GIVE US DAILY CHANCE AT CONVECTION.
THANKFULLY, SOME INCOMING COLD FRONTS WILL COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN A
BIT! TODAY, WE LOOK TO WARM INTO THE LOW 90S WITH TOMORROW TOPPING
OUT IN THE 80S! TODAY'S TEMPERATURES MAY BE EVEN LOWER IF THERE IS
MORNING CONVECTION, BUT WE'LL GET INTO THAT IN A MINUTE.
CONVECTION HAS HAD A NEAR IMPOSSIBLE TIME INITIATING MONDAY NIGHT
DUE TO WEAKER THAN EXPECTED FORCING AND SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS.
THERE IS STILL A 50% CHANCE WE'LL SEE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE CWA. WE CANNOT RULE OUT SEVERE WEATHER, BUT WITH WEAK SHEAR AND
LOWERING CAPE, THE POTENTIAL IS LESS THAN 10%. MOST LIKELY HAZARDS
WOULD BE HAIL UP TO 1.5 INCHES AND WINDS LIKELY TOPPING OUT UNDER 65
MPH, UNLESS A MICRO-BURST OCCURS, THEN WINDS NEAR 75 MPH WOULD BE
POSSIBLE. THE TIMEFRAME FOR THIS CONVECTIVE THREAT PEAKS BETWEEN 7-
11Z, BUT COULD LAST UNTIL WELL AFTER SUNRISE. THE LATER THAT THE
CONVECTION THIS MORNING LASTS, THE LESS CONDUCIVE THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING.
AS IT STANDS, THERE IS A 60% CHANCE THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE TOO WEAK
OR DISORGANIZED TO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND A 40% CHANCE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OCCUR. IF STORMS OCCUR, HERE'S WHAT WE'RE
EXPECTING. AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF KS 27 WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
AT SEEING ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS, INCREASING THE FARTHER EAST WE GO
IN THE CWA, AS THIS IS WHERE THE BEST 500MB VORTICITY. HOWEVER,
STORMS MAY FIRE OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND CREATE A THREAT FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA. MOST LIKELY START TIME FOR THE "MAIN SHOW" WILL BE
AROUND 0-3Z, BUT SOME EARLY CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN CWA MAY
PRECEDE THIS BY A FEW HOURS.
THIS PARAGRAPH COVERS THE MOST LIKELY FORECAST USING 18Z AND 0Z
GUIDANCE. IT'S WORTH NOTING THIS GUIDANCE HAD FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION EARLY TUESDAY MORNING MODIFYING THE ENVIRONMENT. AS OF
6Z, THIS HAS NOT OCCURRED, LOWING CONFIDENCE IN THIS GUIDANCE. IN
THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF CONVECTION (0-3Z), ISOLATED STORMS ARE
FAVORED BEFORE CLUSTERING. ISOLATED STORMS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
AT PRODUCING HAIL IN THE 1.5-2.5 INCH RANGE, BUT WILL BE LESS LIKELY
TO PRODUCE WINDS ABOVE 65 MPH. AS THE SYSTEM CLUSTERS, WHICH 18 & 0Z
CAMS SUGGEST WILL HAPPEN QUICKLY, THE HAIL THREAT LOWERS AND THE
WIND THREAT INCREASES. A FEW CLUSTERS OR EVEN A QLCS LOOK TO FORM AS
THE SYSTEM MATURES, WHICH MAY PRODUCE WINDS UP TO 85 MPH, WHILE HAIL
WOULD TOP OUT AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE TORNADIC THREAT IS VERY LOW DUE
TO WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR, BUT IF A NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED QLCS FORMS,
THE BULK MAJORITY OF THE SHEAR, INCLUDING 0-3 KM, IS FROM THE WEST.
THIS IS A PREFERRED SHEAR VECTOR FOR QUICK QLCS TORNADOES.
CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY CLEAR OUR AREA AROUND 9Z, UNLESS
REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA WHICH COULD LINGER TO
AROUND SUNRISE. LOWS SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER, COOLING INTO THE LOW
60S.
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINLY ABOUT THE CONVECTIVE THREAT LATER
TODAY. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL TUESDAY 12Z DATA COMES IN BEFORE WE'RE
REALLY ABLE TO GET A HANDLE ON WHAT STATE THE ENVIRONMENT IS IN.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY IS STILL VERY MUCH UP IN
THE AIR. WE'RE LOOKING AT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH HELPING
CONVECTION INITIATE OFF OF THE FRONT RANGE. HOWEVER, ONCE IT DETACHES
FROM ANY OROGRAPHIC FORCING, CONVECTION LOOKS TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY.
WHAT CONVECTION DOES SURVIVE LOOKS TO DIVE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.
WINDS UP TO 70 MPH IS THE MAIN THREAT, BUT 2 INCH HAIL IS POSSIBLE
FROM AN ISOLATED STORM. THERE IS ALSO A <5% CHANCE ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED CELLS FIRE ACROSS THE CWA, MAINLY CONVECTIVE-T DRIVEN.
HOWEVER, IF ANY OF THESE CELLS CAN TAP INTO THE DEEPER 0-8KM SHEAR,
ALL HAZARDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
PRIME TIME FOR CONVECTION WEDNESDAY WILL BE BETWEEN 20-06Z WITH MOST
CONVECTION MOVING IN A SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO MIMIC TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1010 AM MDT TUE AUG 25 2026
STARTING THE EXTENDED PERIOD FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
REMAIN PARKED ACROSS THE SW CONUS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A
SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE BETTER FORCING IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH WHICH PUTS PRECIPATION
POTENTIAL A LITTLE IN QUESTION BUT CURRENTLY COUNTIES ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36 CURRENTLY APPEARS TO HAVE THE RELATIVE
HIGHER POTENTIAL.
INTO THE WEEKEND A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED TROUGH IS SEEN MOVING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT THE
HIGH FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS MAY LEAD TO A
BIT MORE ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW
FAR SOUTH WILL THE TROUGH SAG AND IF IT WILL ALLOW VORTICITY MAXIMA
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WHICH CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE THE ONLY
FORCING AT THIS TIME AS THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH. A SIMILAR PATTERN THEN MAY
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK AS WELL BUT THE HIGH ELONGATES
SOME AND HAS SOME INDICATIONS OF SHIFTING A LITTLE EAST. IF THIS
DOES OCCUR THEN AN INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE MAY DEVELOP
AS THIS WOULD THEN BECOME A CLASSIC PATTERN DAILY SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD. AS LONG AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS NEARBY THE AREA THEN TEMPERATURES WOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER
80S TO MID 90S. IF CLOUD COVER WERE TO REMAIN THICK ENOUGH THEN
TEMPERATURES WOULD HAVE TO BE KNOCKED DOWN AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BUT
IT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1113 PM MDT MON AUG 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD FOR KGLD AND KMCK.
HOWEVER, STORMS MAY IMPACT THE SITES EARLY THIS MORNING, AND
THERE IS A 10% CHANCE PATCHY FOG WILL IMPACT KMCK AROUND
SUNRISE. THE BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS WILL START LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, WINDS
WILL LARGELY REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE, FAVORING AN EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AHEAD OF THE STORMS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...CA
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