029
FXUS63 KGLD 260525
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1125 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS ON BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE
IN STORM COVERAGE AND LOCATION, SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS.
- NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY.
- WARMING TREND AT THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 90'S ON SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 845 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2026
RADAR, SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS SUGGEST THAT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS DECREASING ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE GOODLAND CWA. AT 845 PM MDT (0245 UTC) THIS
EVENING, CONVECTION WAS LARGELY CONFINED TO KIOWA, BENT,
PROWERS AND BACA COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST CO, WHERE AN MCV
(MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM) EMANATING FROM PRIOR
DEEP CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE THE FOCUS FOR ONGOING DEVELOPMENT.
IF CURRENT TRENDS PERSIST, PRECIP CHANCES AND SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL IN THE GOODLAND CWA WILL LARGELY BE CONFINED TO
GREELEY/WICHITA COUNTIES, I.E. THE E AND ENE PERIPHERY OF THE
EASTWARD ADVANCING MCV.. WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM ARE POSSIBLE ~03-06Z (9P-12A MDT). WHILE
AUGMENTED FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV APPEARS TO BE
STRONGEST ALONG/NEAR HIGHWAY 50 (JUST SOUTH OF THE GOODLAND CWA)
AND BOTH THE MEAN WIND (300@15KT) AND RIGHT-MOVER MOTION
(020@15KT) WILL TEND TO STEER CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE GOODLAND
CWA, LEFT-MOVER MOTION FROM THE WSW (~250@15KT) COULD ALLOW
ANTICYCLONIC UPDRAFTS (IF PRESENT) TO PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD
INTO PORTIONS OF GREELEY/WICHITA COUNTIES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1035 AM MDT TUE AUG 25 2026
THE MORNING HOURS HAD A CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT FORMED AND MOVED
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 ALONG A LINGERING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS SHOW
THE BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WHILE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRE UP AROUND LOGAN AND GOVE
COUNTIES FROM OUTFLOWS FROM THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD KEEP SOME
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IN THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING. SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY WITH THESE STORMS.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL LARGELY BE DEPENDENT ON IF
SHOWERS/STORMS AND CLOUD COVER CLEARS. WE ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH
THE PLAINS. ALONG WITH THE OUTFLOWS IN THE AREA AND A COLD FRONT
NEARING THE AREA TO THE NORTH, WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF FORCING
AVAILABLE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP. HOW SEVERE AND HOW WIDESPREAD
THE STORMS ARE IS WHAT IS DEPENDENT ON OUR CLEARING. WHILE
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS HIGH, THIS EARLY CLOUD COVER IS
STIFLING OUR INSTABILITY RECOVERY. SHOULD THIS PERSIST, THE
STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LOWER OVER NW KANSAS AND SW
NEBRASKA WITH MOSTLY SUB-SEVERE STORMS. EASTERN COLORADO WOULD
THEN BE THE MAIN FOCUS WITH STORMS MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE
SCENARIO BASED ON THE MID MORNING OBSERVATIONS. SHOULD WE CLEAR
AND WARM ENOUGH, THE SEVERE THREAT WOULD INCREASE AND STORMS
WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO PUSH THROUGH NW KANSAS AND SW NEBRASKA.
THE THREAT MAGNITUDES WOULD ALSO INCREASE. HAIL WOULD GO FROM
AROUND AN INCH, TO UP TO 2 INCHES (MAYBE LARGER IN A WELL
DEVELOPED SUPERCELL). WIND GUSTS WOULD PROBABLY BE SIMILAR IN
THE 60-70 MPH RANGE, UNLESS A QLCS DEVELOPED IN WHICH CASE 80
MPH IS THE MAX. A QLCS ORIENTATED ROUGHLY NORTH/SOUTH OR
NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST WOULD ALSO GIVE US A CHANCE FOR A BRIEF
TORNADO WITH 0-3KM SHEAR VECTORS FORECAST TO BE ROUGHLY FROM THE
EAST AROUND 25 KTS. THERE ONLY SEEMS TO BE A 20% CHANCE THAT AN
ORGANIZED LINE (QLCS) DEVELOPS IN THE WEST AND PUSHES THROUGH.
THE PEAK TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS ROUGHLY FROM 4PM-11PM AND
5PM-12AM. STORMS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH OUTFLOWS
IN THE AREA AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE FORECAST TO BE AVAILABLE.
TOMORROW, THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WHILE WE REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGHER
PRESSURE AND COLDER AIR ARE FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE, HELPING US
STAY A BIT COOLER IN THE 80S. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN FAIRLY BROAD AND KEEP WINDS AROUND 5-10 MPH. THERE MAY
BE A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY, BUT THE CHANCES SHOULD BE
LOWER COMPARED TO TODAY WITH STORMS LESS LIKELY TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN STORM BATCH WILL LIKELY BE COMING
FROM THE WEST ONCE THEY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THERE IS
A 10% CHANCE THAT CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IS REACHED AND AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO FORM OVER THE AREA. STORMS THAT FORM WILL
LIKELY BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT SUPPORTS LARGE HAIL AROUND AN
INCH AND WIND GUSTS OF 50-70 MPH. IF WE CAN GET A SUPERCELL TO
FORM BEFORE STORMS FINISH CLUSTERING, TWO INCH OR LARGE HAIL MAY
BE ABLE TO FORM. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LARGELY BE CONFINED TO
THE EVENING HOURS, THOUGH AN OUTFLOW FROM THE EARLY STORMS MAY
ALLOW ADDITIONAL STORMS TO FORM AND LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT
HOURS.
THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S. WINDS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS A LOW DEVELOPS IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND BRINGS SPEEDS TO AROUND 10-15 MPH. STORMS
MAY DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IF
THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES CAN BE REACHED, BUT THE FORECAST
FOR NOW ONLY HAS A 30% CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING. IF A STORM DOES
FORM, LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 60-70 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1010 AM MDT TUE AUG 25 2026
STARTING THE EXTENDED PERIOD FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
REMAIN PARKED ACROSS THE SW CONUS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A
SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE BETTER FORCING
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH WHICH PUTS
PRECIPATION POTENTIAL A LITTLE IN QUESTION BUT CURRENTLY
COUNTIES ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36 CURRENTLY APPEARS TO HAVE
THE RELATIVE HIGHER POTENTIAL.
INTO THE WEEKEND A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED TROUGH IS SEEN MOVING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT THE HIGH FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
MAY LEAD TO A BIT MORE ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH WILL THE TROUGH SAG AND IF IT
WILL ALLOW VORTICITY MAXIMA TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WHICH
CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE THE ONLY FORCING AT THIS TIME AS THE
BETTER JET DYNAMICS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN OFF TO THE
NORTH. A SIMILAR PATTERN THEN MAY CONTINUE THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK
AS WELL BUT THE HIGH ELONGATES SOME AND HAS SOME INDICATIONS OF
SHIFTING A LITTLE EAST. IF THIS DOES OCCUR THEN AN INCREASE IN
MONSOONAL MOISTURE MAY DEVELOP AS THIS WOULD THEN BECOME A
CLASSIC PATTERN DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD. AS LONG AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS NEARBY THE AREA THEN TEMPERATURES WOULD REMAIN
IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. IF CLOUD COVER WERE TO REMAIN THICK
ENOUGH THEN TEMPERATURES WOULD HAVE TO BE KNOCKED DOWN AROUND
5-10 DEGREES BUT IT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
THROUGH THE DAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1117 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
AT BOTH TERMINALS. WHILE SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KS AND SOUTHWEST NE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, CONFIDENCE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE IS
LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE EXPLICIT MENTION WITH THE 06Z TAF
ISSUANCE. LIGHT SE, ESE OR VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS. GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS, SHOULD STORMS BE PRESENT IN
VICINITY OF EITHER TERMINAL.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...VINCENT
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