440
FXUS63 KGLD 260856
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
256 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS TODAY AND THURSDAY, MAINLY IN EASTERN CO AND
NEARBY KS-NE BORDER COUNTIES. LOW CONFIDENCE IN STORM
DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE, SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS.
- NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A
WARMING TREND, WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE MID-UPPER 90'S ON
SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2026
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA, CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES, WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE TRI-STATE AREA
REMAINS SITUATED ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, IN MODEST NW
FLOW ALOFT.
THIS MORNING: ONGOING SUB-SEVERE CONVECTION APPROACHING THE
I-76 CORRIDOR IN NORTHEAST CO AT 0830 UTC THIS MORNING COULD
PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS AROUND SUNRISE THIS
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH REGARD TO WHETHER OR NOT SAID
CONVECTION WILL PERSIST / HOW FAR DOWNSTREAM IT WILL PROGRESS.
AN AUTOMATED OBSERVATION SITE (K1LW) NORTHWEST OF HAXTUN, NEAR
THE CO-NE BORDER, MEASURED WNW WINDS SUSTAINED AT 35 MPH
GUSTING TO 49 MPH WITH THESE STORMS AT 2:08 AM MDT THIS MORNING.
TODAY-THURSDAY: MAINLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST. THE TRI-STATE
AREA REMAINS IN A WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING REGIME CHARACTERIZED BY
MODEST NW FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW. IN SUCH A PATTERN,
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN
CLIMATOLOGICALLY / TOPOGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS SUCH AS THE
COLORADO FRONT RANGE, CHEYENNE RIDGE AND PALMER DIVIDE.
CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE TENDS TO PERFORM POORLY IN WEAK
FORCING REGIMES; THIS HAS CERTAINLY BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW
DAYS, AND THERE IS NO REASON TO SUSPECT THAT THIS WILL CHANGE
(DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD), ESPECIALLY WHEN LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION MAY ALTER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, FURTHER
MUDDYING THE FORECAST WATERS. A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE THIS AFT-EVE, MAINLY IN EASTERN CO AND NEARBY KS-NE BORDER
COUNTIES. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN (TO SOME EXTENT) ON THU, AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD OVER ADJOINING
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT A SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL SIMILAR TO TODAY, ALBEIT WITH RELATIVELY WEAKER
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A RELATIVELY LOWER POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1010 AM MDT TUE AUG 25 2026
STARTING THE EXTENDED PERIOD FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
REMAIN PARKED ACROSS THE SW CONUS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A
SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE BETTER FORCING
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH WHICH PUTS
PRECIPATION POTENTIAL A LITTLE IN QUESTION BUT CURRENTLY
COUNTIES ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36 CURRENTLY APPEARS TO HAVE
THE RELATIVE HIGHER POTENTIAL.
INTO THE WEEKEND A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED TROUGH IS SEEN MOVING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT THE HIGH FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
MAY LEAD TO A BIT MORE ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH WILL THE TROUGH SAG AND IF IT
WILL ALLOW VORTICITY MAXIMA TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WHICH
CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE THE ONLY FORCING AT THIS TIME AS THE
BETTER JET DYNAMICS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN OFF TO THE
NORTH. A SIMILAR PATTERN THEN MAY CONTINUE THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK
AS WELL BUT THE HIGH ELONGATES SOME AND HAS SOME INDICATIONS OF
SHIFTING A LITTLE EAST. IF THIS DOES OCCUR THEN AN INCREASE IN
MONSOONAL MOISTURE MAY DEVELOP AS THIS WOULD THEN BECOME A
CLASSIC PATTERN DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD. AS LONG AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS NEARBY THE AREA THEN TEMPERATURES WOULD REMAIN
IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. IF CLOUD COVER WERE TO REMAIN THICK
ENOUGH THEN TEMPERATURES WOULD HAVE TO BE KNOCKED DOWN AROUND
5-10 DEGREES BUT IT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
THROUGH THE DAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE 12Z
TAF PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS. THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE I-76
CORRIDOR IN NORTHEAST CO AT 0825 UTC THIS MORNING COULD
POTENTIALLY AFFECT BOTH TERMINALS AN HOUR OR TWO ON EITHER SIDE
OF SUNRISE (EARLIER AT GLD, LATER AT MCK), IF SAID STORMS
PERSIST FOR THAT LONG. A PROB30 GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED TO BOTH TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AT EITHER TERMINAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT,
THOUGH.. CONFIDENCE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE IS LOW
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE EXPLICIT MENTION WITH THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
LIGHT SE, ESE OR VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS. GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH ANY STORMS, SHOULD STORMS BE PRESENT IN VICINITY OF EITHER
TERMINAL.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...VINCENT
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