165
FXUS63 KGLD 261827
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1227 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS THROUGH FRIDAY, MAINLY IN EASTERN CO AND NEARBY
KS-NE BORDER COUNTIES. LOW CONFIDENCE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT
AND COVERAGE, SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS.
- NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A
WARMING TREND, WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE MID-UPPER 90'S ON
SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1215 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2026
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, MORE OF THE SAME IN WHAT HAS
BECOME A STAGNANT PATTERN. WEAK FORCING FROM EMBEDDED WAVES IN
THE ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE WILL HAVE
1000-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND 30 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO WORK
WITH EACH AFTERNOON. CAMS SHOW CONVECTION ORIGINATING ON THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST AND ROTATING IN DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. OVERNIGHT, THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
MAINTAIN A THREAT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN
AREAS, POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO EARLY THE NEXT MORNING. THE
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST, WEIGHTED IN
COLORADO AND ADJACENT COUNTIES OF KANSAS AND NEBRASKA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WHEN INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL
BE MAXIMIZED. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD, WITH
A FEW INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT STORMS
WILL POSE MAINLY A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THREAT WITH PLENTIFUL
MUCAPE REMAINING.
ON SATURDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MAKE A SIGNIFICANT PUSH
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, STRETCHING FROM NORTH TEXAS TO
MISSOURI BY SATURDAY NIGHT. UNDER THE RIDGE, BOTH INSTABILITY
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE LOWER. WEAK INSTABILITY OF 500-750
J/KG IS FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
10-20 KTS. CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND FRONT RANGE WHERE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE.
SOME OF THAT CONVECTION MAY EVENTUALLY REACH THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT, BUT WITH A NORTHEASTERLY STORM MOTION IT MAY TAKE UNTIL
MID TO LATE EVENING TO REACH FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO. CONVECTION
SHOULD BE WEAKENING BY THEN AND THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE LOW, MAINLY WIND FROM ANY DECAYING SHOWER OR
STORM.
TEMPERATURES SHOW A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD:
NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY, SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND
ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY UNDER THE RIDGE WITH UPPER 90S TO
AROUND 100 POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1010 AM MDT TUE AUG 25 2026
STARTING THE EXTENDED PERIOD FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
REMAIN PARKED ACROSS THE SW CONUS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A
SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE BETTER FORCING
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH WHICH PUTS
PRECIPATION POTENTIAL A LITTLE IN QUESTION BUT CURRENTLY
COUNTIES ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36 CURRENTLY APPEARS TO HAVE
THE RELATIVE HIGHER POTENTIAL.
INTO THE WEEKEND A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED TROUGH IS SEEN MOVING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT THE HIGH FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
MAY LEAD TO A BIT MORE ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH WILL THE TROUGH SAG AND IF IT
WILL ALLOW VORTICITY MAXIMA TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WHICH
CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE THE ONLY FORCING AT THIS TIME AS THE
BETTER JET DYNAMICS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN OFF TO THE
NORTH. A SIMILAR PATTERN THEN MAY CONTINUE THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK
AS WELL BUT THE HIGH ELONGATES SOME AND HAS SOME INDICATIONS OF
SHIFTING A LITTLE EAST. IF THIS DOES OCCUR THEN AN INCREASE IN
MONSOONAL MOISTURE MAY DEVELOP AS THIS WOULD THEN BECOME A
CLASSIC PATTERN DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD. AS LONG AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS NEARBY THE AREA THEN TEMPERATURES WOULD REMAIN
IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. IF CLOUD COVER WERE TO REMAIN THICK
ENOUGH THEN TEMPERATURES WOULD HAVE TO BE KNOCKED DOWN AROUND
5-10 DEGREES BUT IT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
THROUGH THE DAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1114 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2026
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCES AT KGLD WILL BE FROM MID
TO LATE EVENING AND BEST CHANCES AT KMCK WILL BE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY
AND CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING ANY THUNDERSTORM.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...024
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